Will Apple replace your iPad with a brand new iPad or a refurbished one, if you accidentally break it? Where do you think the "break even"/"worth it" point is for AppleCare+? For example, if you get the 16GB WiFi only model, AppleCare+ is 20% ($99/$499), whereas on the 64GB with 4G it's 12% ($99/$829). Perhaps you feel that even at 12% Apple's extended warranty isn't worth it. Would you forego a protective case and perhaps just go with a smart cover if you get AppleCare+?