My guess is no.
The reason the Mini remains the size it is, is so that it may accommodate a full range of connection ports.
Also, the form factor doesn't change because there are entities that buy dozens upon dozens of Minis to use in rack systems.
A Fishrrman rhetorical question:
"What kind of Mac user exists on earth for whom the existing Mini is too large...?"
Exactly. If you want the ports (and you probably do) then you need a power supply that can handle all the ports. And that has a knock-on effect on the rest of the size.
You can save a little volume on cooling, but the power supply sets a lower limit. Look at a teardown for where the space goes in the current mac mini.
Of course Apple COULD sell something that doesn't provide as many slots -- a mac mini lite with say
- one (limited power) USB-C slot
- one ethernet
- one HDMI
- no USB-C
(maybe even no speaker, to save even more space)
but is there demand for that rather than a full-service mini? My guess is not really.
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On the contrary they want to have less ports, more wireless and more proprietary wireless products - and pricey high tech dongles and docks. Audio jack - or airpods and and airplay? Four USB C ports or one port and their own thunderbolt 3 display with four ports on it? Guess which one makes their grandchildren richer?
You have no idea what Apple wants.
All you know is what the paranoid fringe keep claiming Apple want. And the paranoid fringe are wrong EVERY year; but that doesn't stop them continuing to insist that Apple want to steal our precious bodily fluids and lock us up in cage to turn us into batteries...
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on the flipside; imagine the kind of hardware they could put inside the existing case. Maybe an rdna2 GPU by AMD?
A man can dream right? An ARM Mac with PS5 Power graphics.
Apple spent the last week telling us that new Macs will contain APPLE SILICON. And they spent the GPU parts of the last week telling us "here's how you program for an Apple-style GPU, if all you are used to is a PC-style GPU".
AMD or nVidia (or Xe) GPU's are NOT COMING to the ARM Macs. Give it up.
What will be there in their place will be an Apple GPU. And it will be AWESOME!