Steve Wozniak: Android will be the dominant smartphone platform

[iStudentUK]

Consumers care how to arrange their own phone/computers/whatever. If they didn't, all the desktops in the world would look the same, with the default icons/wallpaper/menu arrangement. The fact is, personalizing your stuff is something a lot of consumers do care about. Be it with stickers, patches or by changing stuff around, adding/removing information, etc....

Exactly, people like choice and different people like different things.

I love my iPhone 4, I got it because it is what I want in a phone. If my opinions change then I'm sure there will be an Android device that fits the bill.

Android will probably dominate, although iOS, WP7 and BlackBerry will probably maintain a decent market share.

 

[KnightWRX]

This. I've never understood anyone who claims the average user does not wish to customise their tech products.

Just in the iPhone ecosystem, have you seen the number of case designs out there ? Are people here that claim consumers don't like choice really going to claim there's only ever 1 model of case in 1 color that sells ?

The plain fact is choice is good, people like choice.

 

[AAPLaday]

Some of you guys are making very logical and correct points. I do agree that market share plays apart in the overall health of the platform, but I really don't see those who are already on iPhone/iOS switching to Android unless Apple royally screws up something or Android really does provide something that is user-friendly. I expect Android/iOS will be a nice 1-2 punch at the top of the market for years to come.

Im waiting to see a Windows phone 7 in the flesh. From what i have seen from clips and some reviews it looks very good. As much an improvement from Windows mobile 6.5 as Windows 7 is from Vista.

 

[Fliesen]

Windows is the dominant platform.
Symbian was the dominant platform.
Android already has a bigger market share than iOS, so, no big news there.
Who cares anyways?

 

[Deefuzz]

I can see it. I know more and more people flocking to Android, and some just because they are either anti-Apple, anti-AT&T, or both.

I would hope that success for Android would drive more innovation with other platforms, and in the end the customer would win either way.

My fiancee has been using Android since the G1 came out and I have never really been that impressed with it (I have been an iPhone user since year 1). But recently she got the G2 and her brother bought the HTC Evo and I have to say that I find it much more pleasing now. I still prefer my iPhone, but I think Android is doing a lot of things right.

 

[maflynn]

consumers couldn't care less about that nor are they probably even aware of it. I'd point to the surveys showing very high percentages of people who never even d/l apps.

That's counter to what I see. I'd be interested in seeing those surveys.

Just look at how people customize their computer desktop, or for the android platform the depth and breadth of widgets available and see the exceedingly high download count. Clearly the ability to customize your home screens as you want to is of high importance.

While not your average consumers, I see on various android forums huge threads illustrating their home screens, in fact those are usually the largest threads on the site. Even here on the iPhone forum, there's a long running thread about different wallpapers.

Yes, these people are the technically adept folks who like to post on internet forums, but don't discount them as not being consumers or say that consumers don't know how or don't want too. My experience as stated has been the opposite.

People like choice in what they choose, they like the ability to customize that choice as well. It doesn't matter if we're talkking phones, computers, cars, or houses. People like putting a personal touch on their things

 

[netdog]

Geeks love to customize their devices.

Android is better for geeks. Just like GoogleTV.

iPhone is better for people who don't want to dick around with their phone, but rather just want a great phone, a nice camera, and useful apps that are painless to install and use.

What a surprise that one of the most wonderful geeks of all time sees the Android as the better offering in the long run.

 

[NebulaClash]

We'll see how things go when Verizon is opened up for iPhones next year, but what I expect to see happen is the cell phone market split up among several giants. It's too big a market to be dominated by any one company. It will always have several giants in market share.

So five years from now I expect we will see a big chunk of Android users, and a big chunk of iOS users, and a smaller chunk of Symbian and Blackberry users, and a smattering of others including Microsoft.

No company will ever, ever, ever get 90+% of the phone market the way Windows dominated the personal computer market. So forget those Mac vs PC comparisons people are obsessed with resurrecting every time Apple does something. The phone market is different, it's too big, it's too global for Android to take 90% of it, or for Apple to take 90% of it, or for anyone to take 90% of it. It simply will not happen.

The key is to have a big enough chunk to have developer interest. Apple has that right now. Android has a smaller interest (not as profitable as Apple's at the moment). Both will be fine. Ignore the doomsayers. Apple is in a great position and it's growing. So is Android's position. Both will be fine.

 

[KnightWRX]

Geeks love to customize their devices.

Android is better for geeks. Just like GoogleTV.

iPhone is better for people who don't want to dick around with their phone, but rather just want a great phone, a nice camera, and useful apps that are painless to install and use.

Blatant false premise. All manners of people love to customize their devices, either physically or through software customization.

Again, only something you hear about on Mac forums to justify Apple's relative lack of customization options.

People like choice in what they choose, they like the ability to customize that choice as well. It doesn't matter if we're talkking houses.

What ? Home decorating and renovation is for geeks only. Consumers like white walls and never change their furniture or add decorations.

 

[daneoni]

They still need to address their major achilles heel though.

 

[applefanDrew]

If the next version of the OS doesn't offer lock screen customization and widgets, I won't be renewing my bid in the iOS platform. My 3GS is my first and will be my last if Apple persists with their outdated UI.

If that's what you want, that is fine. Personally, though, I don't understand why people like having widgets so much. They are ugly and I don't like having all that info thrown in my face every time I look at my phone. If I want to know the weather, I will open the app. Otherwise, keep it clean.

 

[maflynn]

Android is better for geeks. Just like GoogleTV.

Wrong!

Many of my friends who I'd not consider geeks have opted for the droid phones. This excuse is generally made by people who want to different the iPhone and the android phone saying the android phones are hard to use, since only geeks can use them or geeks are the only ones who like to customize them.

 

[KnightWRX]

They still need to address their major achilles heel though.

I'd say this is Apple's achiles heel too, in reverse. Seriously, the 3GS with it's advanced GPU is now about 1 and a half years old and we're just now seeing stuff like Epic Citadel that takes advantage of it.

The original iPhone and iPhone 3G are holding back app developers. It's disingenuous to claim that this is only an Android problem.

Also note they aren't talking about 100 different versions of Angry Birds, but 2. One for high powered phones and one for lesser capable devices. Fragmentation is not more of an issue than with the iOS platform.

 

[KnightWRX]

If that's what you want, that is fine. Personally, though, I don't understand why people like having widgets so much. They are ugly and I don't like having all that info thrown in my face every time I look at my phone. If I want to know the weather, I will open the app. Otherwise, keep it clean.

That's the difference, I like information at a glance. Unlocking the phone to simply get the outside temperature is ridiculous. It can be displayed right there.

 

[daneoni]

Its not only an Android problem but it is more pronounced on Android, there are too many tiers of devices. Its not just about games too, several versions of the market place exist, there are uncertainties about the eligibility for future OS updates...some devices are still running 1.6 whilst Google is prepping to launch 2.3 in a few weeks.

Bottom line, in Android there's usually more than one or two versions of a platform component...for better or worse.

 

[roadbloc]

I can see it. I know more and more people flocking to Android, and some just because they are either anti-Apple, anti-AT&T, or both.

Hardly a feasible argument for european countries like the uk. iPods are the most popular mp3 player here and the iPhone is available on pretty much all networks (not to mention that AT&T don't actually exist here.)

It's the price, lack of choice/customisation and the flawed antenna design that are the main reasons the iPhone is unpopular over the android and wp7 here.

Android is better for geeks. Just like GoogleTV.

Utter rubbish. As the self admitted geekiest guy on my college course, I am the only smartphone ower there with an iPhone. The rest have android or symbian.

 

[*LTD*]

Flood the market with enough "good enough" knock-offs in all sorts of form factors - ranging from the decent to the truly horrible, at all different price points, and spread them around to all carriers, and you'll push enough sheer volume to gain share. Google will whore their slipshod OS out to anyone that can make a box.

This is supposed to be impressive?

A phone that achieves what the iPhone does, while locked to a single carrier in the US, to which all other phones of its kind are compared (and usually fail) . . . now THAT is impressive. An upcoming Verizon partnership will change the game again, of course.

Google is playing the commodity-game. That's all. As for the User Experience that results from this strategy, it'll be hit-and-miss at best, like it is now.

Google never could produce an iPhone-Killer, which they tried to do on several occasions. Most notably they failed with their then-designated flagship phone, the Nexus One. That was to be their own signature product. It tanked. Eric T. Mole and co. figured that no matter how good Eric's Apple crib notes were, the company didn't have the culture and couldn't utilize the available talent as well as Apple could. In other words, Google lacked the tools and the know-how to pull off game-changing, daring moves in this end of the industry. So they implemented the commodification strategy full-tilt. Pull a Nokia but implement the kind of tech and UI Apple was doing. "Good enough" will be just that: good enough. This is the mantra of the tech-whore. License to everyone and push volume.

 

[nefan65]

That's the difference, I like information at a glance. Unlocking the phone to simply get the outside temperature is ridiculous. It can be displayed right there.

Which is a matter of opinion. Sounds like Android is a better fit for you. Apple will never...and I mean NEVER open up their phone to allow folks to customize to that level. I also doubt they'll add "Widget" functionality to it. They're going for simple, clean, and a launch for that kind of stuff vs. constant feeding to the display. Some of it has to do with Battery life. Those widgets cause battery drain. That's a huge complaint of the Android community...

 

[Pez555]

Windows is the dominant platform.
Symbian was the dominant platform.
Android already has a bigger market share than iOS, so, no big news there.
Who cares anyways?

Wrong, iOS is more popular than android. (remember iOS is also on iPad, iPod Touch).

If you had said android has a bigger market share than iPhone, you would have been correct.

 

[scaredpoet]

However, it would be quite disingenuous to claim that the Mac hasn't struggled in some areas of 3rd party support (most notably in the gaming arena and business software) because of lack of penetration.

It would also be disingenuous to claim that the way the PC marketplace turned out for so long was of ultimate benefit to consumers. Every time we receive spam in our inboxes or have to deal in some way with a malware-infected Windows PC, or bemoan the fact people were (and still are) quite okay with using a stagnated 9-year-old version of an operating system, we're paying for having sustained that model for so long.

Diversity breeds innovation. It would not be wise to repeat the same mistakes in the smartphone market.

So if Android does end up dominating and iOS gets relegated to a niche (like what happened to Mac vs PC),

This assumes a myopic, monopolistic, "there-can-be-only-one" viewpoint. Everyone comes to the assuption that there must be only one dominant platform at the expense of all others.

Frankly, I don't see a problem with having more than one major platform. I believe (and so does the Woz, if you care to actually read the article) that iOS strongpoints are what drives Android to improve. Likewise, Android needs to improve to keep Apple on their toes and for them to keep innovating. If you lose either one, the market will stagnate.

This viewpoint also ignores the other existing platforms out there: RIM, Windows Phone 7, Meego. It's quite possible that any of those platforms, or even one we haven't even heard of yet, could blow all the existing players out of the water with something completely new, just like Apple did in '07.

All we can do is speculate. It's just a shame that we can't even do that very well, because as always, everyone assumes the Highlander style, there-can-be-only-one approach.

Wrong, iOS is more popular than android. (remember iOS is also on iPad, iPod Touch).

If you had said android has a bigger market share than iPhone, you would have been correct.

But then you would be doing the same thing that Android proponents claim that Apple proponents do: comparing Apples to Oranges; splitting selectively between the OS platform and specific pieces of hardware.

 

[KnightWRX]

Its not only an Android problem but it is more pronounced on Android. Its not just about games too, there's the OTA updates delays. Some devices are still running 1.6 whilst Google is prepping to launch 2.3 in a few weeks. There's also the different app stores/market places...

Different app stores/market place is good, especially since you're not tied to one in particular. Just look at Cydia on iOS and how it gained traction with the about 10% of people who Jailbreak. People actually want this on iOS too. I don't jailbreak my phone, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't appreciate being able to install IPAs from 3rd parties without Apple's blessing.

Also the OTA updates fragmentation is due to manufacturers being actually able to brand and customize their UIs. MotoBlur, SenseUI, Sony's stuff, all of this is not possible on iOS at all and while it does result in updates coming faster, Apple is also much more apt to drop support for phones.

Just look at the iPhone 3G. It was still selling brand new in sealed box on June 21 when iOS 4 was released and yet it didn't even get wallpapers of all things. Colored pixels on the screen's background. I don't consider the iPhone 3G got iOS 4 at all, they're basically running 3.1, but slower and with a 4 in the version screen.

What you seem to try to point as weaknesses of the Android platform is its strength. Manufacturers will EOL phones instead of shipping 2.2 for them if they aren't capable of it, not do an half-ass job of it. Also, developers/consumers that don't agree with Google on market choices (where there isn't really any restrictions) aren't stuck in a "Use it or lose it" scenario where there only choice is to dump all their purchased apps and move to a new platform.

 

[BaldiMac]

Fragmentation is not more of an issue than with the iOS platform.

Of course it's more of an issue for Android than iOS. For the reasons that you outlined in your first few posts in this thread. More choice in hardware and more choice in software configurations. Does it have a keyboard? Landscape or portrait? How many hardware buttons? Resolution? Compass? Wifi? GPS? Other sensors? You get the idea. Yes - you have to ask some of the same questions with the 3 different supported models of the iPhone. But the questions are more limited and the answers are much more clear cut.

And then you have much more potential for Android software fragmentation in the future. Some Android hardware sellers will want to differentiate more through software as hardware becomes a commodity.

Yes, the iPhone has fragmentation issues.

 

[daneoni]

...What you seem to try to point as weaknesses of the Android platform is its strength. Manufacturers will EOL phones instead of shipping 2.2 for them if they aren't capable of it, not do an half-ass job of it. Also, developers/consumers that don't agree with Google on market choices (where there isn't really any restrictions) aren't stuck in a "Use it or lose it" scenario where there only choice is to dump all their purchased apps and move to a new platform.

Sure. If you want to spin it that way then by all means knock yourself out.

 

[anjinha]

I understand the sentiment, but there is a correlation between market success and the development of a product line. The better a product does in the market the more a company is apt to spend on its future development.

But the iPhone doesn't need to be the most dominant platform to still be a huge success and a money maker for Apple.

 

[KnightWRX]

Sure. If you want to spin it that way then by all means knock yourself out.

If you want to keep your head in the sand and believe that lack of choice is best, then also by all means, knock yourself out.