Steve Wozniak: Android will be the dominant smartphone platform

[jnpy!$4g3cwk]

But, but, .. What about the Windows Phone 7?

 

[lsvtecjohn3]

If the next version of the OS doesn't offer lock screen customization and widgets, I won't be renewing my bid in the iOS platform. My 3GS is my first and will be my last if Apple persists with their outdated UI.

Why not jailbreak if it's that important to you? I mean I don't care if you stay or leave.

We'll see how things go when Verizon is opened up for iPhones next year, but what I expect to see happen is the cell phone market split up among several giants. It's too big a market to be dominated by any one company. It will always have several giants in market share.

So five years from now I expect we will see a big chunk of Android users, and a big chunk of iOS users, and a smaller chunk of Symbian and Blackberry users, and a smattering of others including Microsoft.

No company will ever, ever, ever get 90+% of the phone market the way Windows dominated the personal computer market. So forget those Mac vs PC comparisons people are obsessed with resurrecting every time Apple does something. The phone market is different, it's too big, it's too global for Android to take 90% of it, or for Apple to take 90% of it, or for anyone to take 90% of it. It simply will not happen.

The key is to have a big enough chunk to have developer interest. Apple has that right now. Android has a smaller interest (not as profitable as Apple's at the moment). Both will be fine. Ignore the doomsayers. Apple is in a great position and it's growing. So is Android's position. Both will be fine.

Great post

 

[KnightWRX]

It would also be disingenuous to claim that the way the PC marketplace turned out for so long was of ultimate benefit to consumers. Every time we receive spam in our inboxes or have to deal in some way with a malware-infected Windows PC, or bemoan the fact people were (and still are) quite okay with using a stagnated 9-year-old version of an operating system, we're paying for having sustained that model for so long.

Spam is old news, it has nothing to do with the PC dominating the world, I receive as much of it on my Mac that I did on Linux before it. Spam is spam, it has to do with the ubiquity of e-mail/discussion groups as a communication medium and existed back in the USENET days, back when e-mail first appeared and on ANSI BBS.

Malware is also not related to market share. Mac has a healthy one and yet it still lacks viruses/worms, only very few trojans that require social engineering have appeared. This is all about security or the lack of it at Microsoft for the longest time (shipping an OS with basically no existing security model at all until the early 2000s.).

This assumes a myopic, monopolistic, "there-can-be-only-one" viewpoint. Everyone comes to the assuption that there must be only one dominant platform at the expense of all others.

And I'm the first to say this exact same thing. Android doesn't have to lose for iOS to win and vice versa. However, this article is about Wozniak's choice of words, which included "dominating".

 

[*LTD*]

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What about WP7? Not sure. Looks like MS will be playing the licensing-whore game with Google, but Google already at MS' lunch in that department. And we already have the Premium handset maker, Apple. That kinda leaves MS with sloppy seconds - or in this case, thirds.

 

[daneoni]

If you want to keep your head in the sand and believe that lack of choice is best, then also by all means, knock yourself out.

I never said that nor do i believe it, don't put words in my mouth.

 

[wirelessmacuser]

Choices & competition deliver great products to the market. The iPhone is one of those. So is Android. I use both and find them very enjoyable. Steve W's position is not without merit. A very smart man who travels the world, he has his finger on the pulse of things in the smartphone sector.

I believe that if Steve Jobs had focused on staying on track and not rushed iPhone 4 to market in order to get in front of the Android wave of releases, we would not have experienced Antennagate. That debacle is not how Apple normally operates, but Steve got nervous, reacted, and shipped the phone too soon. It was not fully tested & ready.

Steve's a brilliant guy, and Apple is well known for having great inside knowledge about their competitors. Once he learned about the soon to launch Android wave, spearheaded by Verizons total backing of Motorola's family of Droid's, his ego was threatened, he freaked, and the rest is history.

Oh sure iPhones are hugely popular, and currently dominant, but nothing lasts forever. Jobs knows this well. Think "Next". Those who are true Apple enthusiasts will know what think next means...

 

[Stein357]

When the iPhone is carried on as many carriers as Android, then we'll talk.

 

[gophukyourself]

Well, there is a reason he no longer is at Apple.....

Steve Jobs would still be living in his parents basement if not for Woz. Jobs is nothing more than a BSing salesman, Woz was the talent.

 

[NebulaClash]

I believe that if Steve Jobs had focused on staying on track and not rushed iPhone 4 to market in order to get in front of the Android wave of releases, we would not have experienced Antennagate. That debacle is not how Apple normally operates, but Steve got nervous, reacted, and shipped the phone too soon. It was not fully tested & ready.

Steve's a brilliant guy, and Apple is well known for having great inside knowledge about their competitors. Once he learned about the soon to launch Android wave, spearheaded by Verizons total backing of Motorola's family of Droid's, his ego was threatened, he freaked, and the rest is history.

That strikes me as very unlikely. iPhone 4 was released precisely when everyone expected it to be released. It has no serious problem with antennas other than a problem that all phones shared got ginned up by tech industry types (who always do this to Apple) and it became a story out of proportion to the issue.

Steve is not the type to panic. And he's not THAT worried about Android to do something stupid.

 

[rdowns]

If you want to keep your head in the sand and believe that lack of choice is best, then also by all means, knock yourself out.

Listen up Tallest Skil, no one is saying choice is bad. What people are saying is that a very large percentage of users don't care about it with regard to diddling with their phones. If they did, the iPhone wouldn't have as big a share of the market.

 

[topmounter]

Why does everyone still confuse "more" with "better"?

Android is quickly becoming the Win95 of smart phones, who cares?

 

[KnightWRX]

Listen up Tallest Skil, no one is saying choice is bad. What people are saying is that a very large percentage of users don't care about it with regard to diddling with their phones. If they did, the iPhone wouldn't have as big a share of the market.

Correlation does not imply causation. I have an iPhone despite it not being customizable. I didn't choose it because it lacked it and I would have preferred getting a customizable phone.

And again, listen up LTD (why are you calling me Tallest Skil ?), that very same large percentage of users you're dragging into this like customizing their phones, as is evidenced by all the wallpaper threads, and all the different cases in different shapes/sizes/colors. Give them extra widgets to customize and I bet you'll see even more people "diddling" with their phones.

 

[chagla]

Nokia is leading worldwide. Android is leading the US.

Canalys: Android takes Q2 smartphone market share lead in US with 886 percent year-over-year growth

iPhone drops to 24% smartphone share, Android jumps to 17%

Android hits top spot in U.S. smartphone market

chart source- Gartner, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone

When the iPhone is carried on as many carriers as Android, then we'll talk.

perhaps you're not aware, there are countries where iphone is sold by multiple carriers.

Steve Jobs would still be living in his parents basement if not for Woz. Jobs is nothing more than a BSing salesman, Woz was the talent.

You speak the truth friend. look at where they are today.

 

[lsvtecjohn3]

When the iPhone is carried on as many carriers as Android, then we'll talk.

Actually the iPhone is sold on more carriers worldwide than Android

 

[Rodimus Prime]

Of course it's more of an issue for Android than iOS. For the reasons that you outlined in your first few posts in this thread. More choice in hardware and more choice in software configurations. Does it have a keyboard? Landscape or portrait? How many hardware buttons? Resolution? Compass? Wifi? GPS? Other sensors? You get the idea. Yes - you have to ask some of the same questions with the 3 different supported models of the iPhone. But the questions are more limited and the answers are much more clear cut.

And then you have much more potential for Android software fragmentation in the future. Some Android hardware sellers will want to differentiate more through software as hardware becomes a commodity.

Yes, the iPhone has fragmentation issues.

You do know that the OS handles most of the things.

The App devs should not be having an issue with different resolution. That is the OS job to handle it. if they are then they are doing it wrong. The OS has the API and tools to handle all that mess no reason to hard code it in and deal with it.

There is not an issue for stuff that runs on our laptops with god knows how many different possible resolution screens or hardware configuration it all works just fine. Most of the stuff is handled by the OS and the programs do dont have to address everything else.

 

[cube]

I am not buying Android until it is real Java.

And I'm not buying iPhone until it is open.

 

[gophukyourself]

When the iPhone is carried on as many carriers as Android, then we'll talk.

You're setting yourself up for dissapointment.

 

[rdowns]

Here's what I'm sure is an unpopular position to take but who the hell cares what Woz says? He isn't relevant and hasn't been in 2 decades now.

 

[Savor]

Back in October 2008, I could already predict this happening at a time when G1 was going to be released. I already owned a iPod touch that was jailbroken and was about to get an original iPhone the following month. Woz is just stating the obvious now that it is succeeding. People want choice and variety (ie form factors, colors, etc). Some want to see hardware move forward and can't wait for Apple to push it only annually. True, it will create fragmentation. No OS or philosophy is truly perfect. But we live in a more tech savvy world where info gets passed along once you "Google" it.

I really don't understand the insecuries from different people. It is like Xbox 360 vs PS3 fanboys. Just get them both if you can afford it and shut the hell up about it! So much insecurity. Let everyone enjoy whatever they like.I believe iOS and Android will battle it for years to come. Whoever "wins", who cares? Not like either one will be gone overnight. Google and Apple is too powerful right now. Watching Android from afar, I am still not quite sure it is where I want it to be. I can't expect all the Android phones to be top quality like one iPhone, but eventually a few will be on par with their standards. I say about the time Ice Cream comes out, I will take a taste. iPhone wasn't exactly perfect either after Year 1-3, especially hardware-wise.

 

[lsvtecjohn3]

Here's what I'm sure is an unpopular position to take but who the hell cares what Woz says? He isn't relevant and hasn't been in 2 decades now.

WRONG Woz was on Dancing With The Stars last year. LoL

 

[cube]

merged

 

[BaldiMac]

You do know that the OS handles most of the things.

The App devs should not be having an issue with different resolution. That is the OS job to handle it. if they are then they are doing it wrong. The OS has the API and tools to handle all that mess no reason to hard code it in and deal with it.

There is not an issue for stuff that runs on our laptops with god knows how many different possible resolution screens or hardware configuration it all works just fine. Most of the stuff is handled by the OS and the programs do dont have to address everything else.

Huh? I'm not sure what point you are trying to make here. The OS doesn't "handle" whether or not there is a physical keyboard. It doesn't "handle" whether the aspect ratio is 4x3 or HD.

If a developer wants to develop a game that requires a physical keyboard, he is fragmenting his user base. Especially since the layout of the different keyboards can vary.

If he provides artwork at a 4x3 ratio, it isn't going to look good at an HD ratio. And those aren't the only two choices.

My only point is that fragmentation is more of an issue on Android than iOS. That's it. I'm not saying it's difficult to overcome in most cases. I'm not saying that there is no fragmentation on iOS.

 

[jav6454]

Flood the market with enough "good enough" knock-offs in all sorts of form factors - ranging from the decent to the truly horrible, at all different price points, and spread them around to all carriers, and you'll push enough sheer volume to gain share. Google will whore their slipshod OS out to anyone that can make a box.

This is supposed to be impressive?

A phone that achieves what the iPhone does, while locked to a single carrier in the US, to which all other phones of its kind are compared (and usually fail) . . . now THAT is impressive. An upcoming Verizon partnership will change the game again, of course.

Google is playing the commodity-game. That's all. As for the User Experience that results from this strategy, it'll be hit-and-miss at best, like it is now.

Google never could produce an iPhone-Killer, which they tried to do on several occasions. Most notably they failed with their then-designated flagship phone, the Nexus One. That was to be their own signature product. It tanked. Eric T. Mole and co. figured that no matter how good Eric's Apple crib notes were, the company didn't have the culture and couldn't utilize the available talent as well as Apple could. In other words, Google lacked the tools and the know-how to pull off game-changing, daring moves in this end of the industry. So they implemented the commodification strategy full-tilt. Pull a Nokia but implement the kind of tech and UI Apple was doing. "Good enough" will be just that: good enough. This is the mantra of the tech-whore. License to everyone and push volume.

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What about WP7? Not sure. Looks like MS will be playing the licensing-whore game with Google, but Google already at MS' lunch in that department. And we already have the Premium handset maker, Apple. That kinda leaves MS with sloppy seconds - or in this case, thirds.

Just when I thought it couldn't better! LTD comedy gold right there!!!

 

[randomerratum]

Correlation does not imply causation. I have an iPhone despite it not being customizable. I didn't choose it because it lacked it and I would have preferred getting a customizable phone.

And again, listen up LTD (why are you calling me Tallest Skil ?), that very same large percentage of users you're dragging into this like customizing their phones, as is evidenced by all the wallpaper threads, and all the different cases in different shapes/sizes/colors. Give them extra widgets to customize and I bet you'll see even more people "diddling" with their phones.

Agreed.
The smartphone was a limited niche market of people who needed and/or wanted extra functionality at the expense of added complexity. A lot of people didn't want the extra frustration, therefore passed on the bells and whistles. The iPhone presented the bells and whistles in a well-thought out, simplified and elegant way - enabling advanced functionality without a lot of added complexity (what Apple does best!) ... they jump started the smartphone market and introduced the App market... now, suddenly other manufacturers are trying to cash-in.

Thus far, they've yet to get that iPhone formula right, but the people who don't mind the extra complexity can have extra functionality thanks to Android and others. Personally, I don't care for the extra customization and I prefer the simplicity of the iOS ecosystem. For something that I rely on many times-per-day for many different things, I want a uniformly simple experience.

If Android or anyone else comes up with a better way of doing this, I'll take a look but I'm perfectly happy at the moment.

 

[maflynn]

And again, listen up LTD (why are you calling me Tallest Skil ?), that very same large percentage of users you're dragging into this like customizing their phones, as is evidenced by all the wallpaper threads, and all the different cases in different shapes/sizes/colors. Give them extra widgets to customize and I bet you'll see even more people "diddling" with their phones.

Just put him on your ignore list, I think many of us have already done that, hence the lack of responses to his inane babble.