Bring-It-All-Together: A Plea for Convergence and a Portable (Multi)Media Player
The debate over the next generation high-end ipod (primarily the WI-FI debate, as most people expect widescreen and multi-touch (without this, it wouldn't be much of an update) gravitates toward two areas. First, the discussion over cannibalizing the iphone, which is very hard to handicap because of a) uncertainty in the manufacturing costs b) ignorance of Apple's long-term strategies and c) the personal preferences of high-level apple executives.
Secondly, however, is the debate over what the ipod should be, and this is where a new generation of ipods could change everything (although the reference to a new product in 2008 is intriguing). The ipod is, even with video capabilities, first, foremost, and almost exclusively a music player. It has evolved from that and is optomized for playing and managing (with itunes integration and the click wheel) music. For a music player, a widescreen would add a larger list of songs (not a huge bonus) and the ability to touch one's music (ok, that IS big, but not a real upgrade in terms of functionality). When it comes to have a small unit for exercising (nano, for some a shuffle) or a large music carrying device for one's library (standard ipod), then one has to admit that apple has fairly come up with a top of the line product. Sure, additions such as bluetooth for headphones, smaller sizes, and more storage would enhance the player even more (there is much more room to grow), but for the purpose of playing music there is only so much functionality that you can have in a portable device, and thus, only so much room to expand. Apple will have to focus on making its devices smaller, have larger capacity, and have more and better extras to enhance the music listening experience, but technology has opened the door to something more (ipad, inex, ipro (good name for an Apple PDA) ipex, ijoin, ijust, iconnect, (just trying to stake my claim)...
In 2001 when Apple introduced the ipod, it was a major, scratch that, huge step for the music industry (as Steve said in that keynote). You could listen to large amounts of music everywhere you went with good quality and battery life. But everyone is used to that now. With the rise of the Web 2.0 and the miniturization of electronics new avenues such as portable video, mobile internet access, and on-demand multimedia, new niches have opened up, and Apple has done very little to exploit them. Apple got into the iphone business for two powerful reasons: 1) current phones pretty much suck at doing anything more than calling (it took years for text messaging to even get decent) and 2) The cell phone market is not only HUGE, but necessary to many people (I suppose some people's ipods are necessary to them as well), and Apple did a great job with the iphone, but Apple has danced around nearly every aspect of one relatively new area...
...the Portable Media Player (PMP). They have personal music players (also pmps, but ipod has taken over the mp3 player name), computers (multi-media device), the leading media store and program, and even a home media center device. The iphone is not a pmp (although it does a great job as one) because it comes from a demand for music players one one end and a demand for cell phones and data (internet, email, etc.) business on the other. One strong piece of evidence is the capacity, which leaves little room for video. Another is the lack of additional support for media on either the itunes/ipod end (no wireless synching) or on the mobile platform end where, except for youtube, it has little additional access to multi-media. Companies such as Archos, Cowon, Verizion, and now Nokia have done much more to bring media access to portable devices, and some have done a fairly good job.
What this means for ipod is that it can use its ipod leverage much as it did with the iphone and make the stubby (or perhaps nano) the top of the music player line, as they do all of the music (with the possible exception of storage size, but in the next year or so we should see that difference disapear) interaction as well as the large ipod. THEN, use the ipod touch (perhaps a new name after "ipod") to branch into a new market. Widescreen (which in a year could get 720/480 resolution, much like the Archos 605) with the high contrast quality and ease of use of the iphone would make it a media device, but it wouldn't end there. WI-FI would be essential for a Personal Media Device (if only because so many competitors have it) because of the ability not only to synch with itunes but to access media off of itunes and, through Safari, the rest of the internet. All of the world's video and music on seamless (that's the Apple key that they have shown with itunes) demand, with the profits going to Apple.
And because media is no longer just about a picture or song or video, make it truly multi-media by allowing full integration with other media. A USB port, so one can download pictures directly from a phone or show pictures on a computer screen, tv, or projector (or even use the WI-FI or Bluetooth). A built-in (albeit lower resolution) camera to record media (eventually upgradable to video or VOIP enabled). A Voice recorder (seriously, how cheap would that be to add-on) to overtake that entire market in one fell sweep. A platform for showing slideshows (powerpoint/keynote) and other buisiness related multi-media. A device that would link with (and perhaps evolve to replace) Apple TV and DVRs to make television mobile and facilitate streaming to and from TV sets, with the ability to pass the floundering HD-Disc market. The list doesn't stop there, and with widespread implimentation of PMPs, new possibilities that have yet to be concieved would become reality. Even PMA/Office functions such as calendars, email, widgets, and beefier applications would fit under the multi-media umbrella.
Best of all, everything in the above list Apple HAS ALREADY DONE, and with much of it on the ipod, we know the technology is there. The software exists on computers, and this leaves Apple the opportunity to do what it does even better than software and hardware, the integration of the two. For some (such as video, VOIP, and powerpoint/keynote), theyre not quite there in a mobile device, but for most if not all of these areas they can get a powerful start.
Importantly, just as the mp3 player market existed before the Ipod but was relatively small, PMPs are not popular (most of them today exist as MP3 players, cell phones, portable gaming platforms, and UMPCs (Ultra-Mobile PCs) and the few that exist are relatively obscure. Apple could jump into this market and capitalize on its reputation (using even the ipod brand itself, at least at first) to build it and dominate. Eventually, as mp3-only players become obsolete because greater capabilities become easy to have in any device, Apple can let the mp3 market die with holding onto a market that it helped to create.
And, if that market merges with the phone market coming from another direction, then they will really have the opportunity (I think it is important to say that with a limited size and the chokehold that the phone service companies have on their market, iphone is not a directed attack at the PMP market, but rather, as stated above, at an extremely large market with dismal hardware capabilities (seriously, who uses their phone to search the internet/check email/listen to music?)) to dominate. From MP3 player to PMP to cell phone to laptop, Apple with either dominate or have a sizable and secure market share, something NO other company can attest to, which makes APPLE THE KING OF CONVERGENCE.
So sure, Apple could ignore this market), or make only a feable attempt at it by ignoring all of the interoperability that WI-FI and more technologies and partnerships have to offer, but that very interoperability is Apples strongest point, and who wouldnt love seeing Apple bring-it-all-together?. Weve seen the hardware, OS X mobile opens the door for software, and so even if their strategy doesnt include PMPs, why not take a bite off of them anyways for the cost of a WI-FI module and some software updates? Next Wednesday, Apple has to decide whether it will wait (why?) or get on board, because if it does it soon, it can be in the drivers seat in no time.
