Hypotheses about when new MBPs will arrive

I have two hypotheses about when the new Montevina MBPs will arrive. I don't have any evidence to support either of them, which is why they are not yet theories. I also don't trust them. If you have any experience or memory or other evidence for or against these hypotheses, please share it.

1. The "Buy a Mac for college, get a free iPod Touch" deal ends September 15th. September 16th is a Tuesday, and a reasonable day for new Montevina MBPs to come out, so perhaps they will come out on September 16th.

2. MacBooks got updated way ahead of schedule in February because Intel came out with Penryn chips, and they literally stopped selling Merom chips. Every computer maker had to upgrade, no matter what. It seemed that no computer makers had a very big inventory, they all upgraded within six weeks (at least, all of the ~6 laptop makers that I checked). If Montevina chips come out July 14th, Apple may have to upgrade the MBP simply because they can't buy more Santa Rosa chips. Using the past as a guide, this forced upgrade could take about two months (to the closest Tuesday, that is September 16th).

Supporting evidence:

For 1: College students and back-to-school customers often either don't care about revisions or don't have the luxury to wait until updates come out. These customers are a great way to unload your inventory before an update.

If revisions come out before the promotion ends, it is a waste of free iPods. You don't need expensive incentives to move the hot new product. Also, waiting until just after the promotion ends is extra fair - people who buy the new model get a newer computer, but they don't get a free iPod, so things even out.

For 2: Apple has to stay competitive. As soon as anyone makes a Montevina computer, Apple has to update the MacBook Pro. The MacBook can lag behind, because it is for a more budget-conscious and less cutting edge segment of the market. Even if it costs bushels of R&D money and forces a huge chunk of inventory into obsolescence, Apple has to try to keep the MBP competitive with other manufacturers.

Detracting evidence:

For 1: Waiting until exactly September 16th seems like a bad way to go. Apple would just barely miss the back-to-school customers. So it might come earlier.

According to the "back-to-school promotion ending" logic, the update could also come way, way later. The ending of the promotion could simply be set by the end of summer, and the update will actually come whenever the heck it wants.

For 2: Although Intel stopped selling Merom chips almost immediately after Penryn came out, they might not do the same thing with Montevina. They may keep a very big stock of old Santa Rosa chips, or they could even continue making them. This is especially likely because the Montevina chip might require a substantial change to the laptop design for compatibility, and Intel may want to give Apple time to make that change and supply old-version processors in the meantime.

Just because Apple tries really hard to keep up with Intel and their competitors does not mean they will succeed. They could conceivably screw up the design repeatedly and waste 10 months before releasing. It happens to companies all the time, and is often more devastating to the shareholders than it is to the poor customers waiting for their next revision.

People have made a lot of good points, so I will consolidate them:

1. Regarding the "Buy a Mac for college and get a free iPod" promotion, hohohong has aptly pointed out that the laptops refreshed in the middle of the promotion last year. I hadn't thought of this, and I hadn't remembered that this particular promotion seems to come every single year. In light of this realization, I think it is most likely that Apple chose the end date of September 15th simply because that is the end of summer vacation.

2. Hypothesis number two simply states that Apple really needs to update the MacBook Pro relatively quickly after Montevina comes out. I gave September 14th as a rough estimate, it could come sooner or later. I hope the revision comes sooner, and Apple probably hopes so too. But...

I know a little bit about designing and manufacturing a product, and sometimes the product simply isn't ready at the time that would be strategically ideal. Kingcrowing said something similar.

I think that Apple really needs to update the MBP quickly after Montevina comes out. Even if 90% of Apple's customers don't care about specs and revisions, the most vocal and influential 10% of Apple's customers DO care about specs, revisions, and competitiveness with Windows machines. The reviewers, the geeks, the market analysts, and the neighborhood computer whizzes of the world will all notice if Apple falls behind, and Apple will get a bad reputation. Then, the 90% of customers who didn't notice will hear that Apple isn't "cutting edge" and Apple will lose business. The MacBook is less important, and can straggle behind, but at least one Apple laptop needs to stay Pro-level and state-of-the-art.

In summary, I have no idea when revisions will come out.