Hypotheses about when new MBPs will arrive

Discussion in 'MacBook Pro' started by bollweevil, Jul 12, 2008.

  1. bollweevil macrumors 6502

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    #1
    I have two hypotheses about when the new Montevina MBPs will arrive. I don't have any evidence to support either of them, which is why they are not yet theories. I also don't trust them. If you have any experience or memory or other evidence for or against these hypotheses, please share it.

    1. The "Buy a Mac for college, get a free iPod Touch" deal ends September 15th. September 16th is a Tuesday, and a reasonable day for new Montevina MBPs to come out, so perhaps they will come out on September 16th.

    2. MacBooks got updated way ahead of schedule in February because Intel came out with Penryn chips, and they literally stopped selling Merom chips. Every computer maker had to upgrade, no matter what. It seemed that no computer makers had a very big inventory, they all upgraded within six weeks (at least, all of the ~6 laptop makers that I checked). If Montevina chips come out July 14th, Apple may have to upgrade the MBP simply because they can't buy more Santa Rosa chips. Using the past as a guide, this forced upgrade could take about two months (to the closest Tuesday, that is September 16th).

    Supporting evidence:

    For 1: College students and back-to-school customers often either don't care about revisions or don't have the luxury to wait until updates come out. These customers are a great way to unload your inventory before an update.

    If revisions come out before the promotion ends, it is a waste of free iPods. You don't need expensive incentives to move the hot new product. Also, waiting until just after the promotion ends is extra fair - people who buy the new model get a newer computer, but they don't get a free iPod, so things even out.

    For 2: Apple has to stay competitive. As soon as anyone makes a Montevina computer, Apple has to update the MacBook Pro. The MacBook can lag behind, because it is for a more budget-conscious and less cutting edge segment of the market. Even if it costs bushels of R&D money and forces a huge chunk of inventory into obsolescence, Apple has to try to keep the MBP competitive with other manufacturers.

    Detracting evidence:

    For 1: Waiting until exactly September 16th seems like a bad way to go. Apple would just barely miss the back-to-school customers. So it might come earlier.

    According to the "back-to-school promotion ending" logic, the update could also come way, way later. The ending of the promotion could simply be set by the end of summer, and the update will actually come whenever the heck it wants.

    For 2: Although Intel stopped selling Merom chips almost immediately after Penryn came out, they might not do the same thing with Montevina. They may keep a very big stock of old Santa Rosa chips, or they could even continue making them. This is especially likely because the Montevina chip might require a substantial change to the laptop design for compatibility, and Intel may want to give Apple time to make that change and supply old-version processors in the meantime.

    Just because Apple tries really hard to keep up with Intel and their competitors does not mean they will succeed. They could conceivably screw up the design repeatedly and waste 10 months before releasing. It happens to companies all the time, and is often more devastating to the shareholders than it is to the poor customers waiting for their next revision.
     
  2. Fenir macrumors regular

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    Kalamazoo, MI
    #2
    FWIW, I have absolutely no evidence to back this following statement up:

    I really think the back to school promotion targets more budget oriented people, and as a result more macbooks get moved then MBPs. With an already attractive price (999 base w/ SD), and the ipod and printer it really caters to the people with a limited budget.

    I would like to think though apple would consider the people waiting to buy an update who are going to school and will do everything they can to push them out Mid-Late August...perhaps a notice that they are buliding/making them.

    However, Sept. 16th isn't unlikely like you said. Except that's about 2 weeks too late for me (yes i know, the apple's policy do not reflect my wants).
     
  3. Pickoff macrumors member

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    #3
    Well, this incoming high school freshman is really, really hoping you are wrong. I have to have mine by the 12th of August.
     
  4. SchneiderMan macrumors G3

    SchneiderMan

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    #4
    i too hope you are wrong in this, i really dont want to wait untill sep :(
    i have a good feelling i will come before
     
  5. Rivix macrumors 6502a

    Rivix

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    Oct 13, 2005
    #5
    If Apple releases in September, they might risk loosing college students who will turn to a better spec PC before going to school.

    My guess is early August, but it could come earlier if the Nvidia problem is widespread and with the recent case leaks.

    My hope is they release soon. Release it soon Apple! Or i'll start a Canadian petition!
     
  6. NRose8989 macrumors 6502a

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    Feb 6, 2008
    #6
    suprizingly I kinda agree with you, judging solely from previous revisions...

    the time it took for apple to jump from the C2D 2.33 version of the MBP to the 2.4 SR revision was about 8 months.

    from the introduction of the Santa Rosa MBPs' in june of 07' to the revision of Penryns was 7 months.

    if history serves us right, that should put the next revision around september to november, just in time for the holidays.

    and considering macworld is consumer event and last year they released the 08' mac pros before macworld (because it's not a consumer product). Now the MBP is a bit different compared to the MP because it's kind of a consumer product and kind of a pro product which makes it a bit tricky when guessing when they should release it.

    all in all, from my completely un-educated guess, I'm going to put my chips on late september to early december.
     
  7. hohohong macrumors 6502

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    Jun 1, 2007
    #7
    This is my hypotheses,.....

    1. July 14th Montevina announcement. A few PC company will be releasing Montevina a week or 2 after 14th. In order to stay competitive, Apple will follow suit.

    2. iPod will be updated soon. Back to school promo is a good way to dump old inventories of iPod to boost sales and gain as much back to school market share as possible to max revenue.

    3. Update was introduced in the mid of back to school promo last summer,...

    What do you think?
     
  8. amusiccale macrumors 6502

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    PA
    #8

    I think this case shows that the end of the back to school promotion might not be the earliest possible release date; I am hoping the ipods get refreshed a little earlier as well.
     
  9. BG-Mac macrumors 6502

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    Jul 31, 2007
    #9
    So do you guys expect these revisions to be a complete re-design of the case, etc.?
     
  10. kingcrowing macrumors 6502a

    kingcrowing

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    Burlington, VT
    #10
    You guys are all thinking way to 'PC'. Apple doesn't sell laptops based on their specs compared to the PC market. I work at a college Computer Depot (I'm a tech, but I work with the sales people and when it's busy I sell Apples and Dells).


    People don't care what chipset or GPU is in a mac. If someone is THAT particular about all the components, they generally build a desktop OR they come on here. We're a minority and Apple does not cater to us. very few people who use apples know much about hardware... sorry let me rephrase that, very few people who use COMPUTERS know much about hardware. I really doubt Apple has all these things so far worked out in the future. I think Apple will wait for intel to give them the new chips and they will design the new Pros and when they have one that looks good and works well as far as eat, etc they will release it. At that point they may do a recall of the G86/G84 motherboards and replace them with the new ones.


    But like I said, people come in and look at the demo machines (most of which aren't usually the most current ones and are a lot slower then they one they'll buy) and they say 'wow this is so sweet! I want one!' and they order it with their parents on the spot. VERY FEW college kids come in and ask when we think theres going to be an update to the current lines.
     
  11. ManWithhat macrumors regular

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    Jun 24, 2008
    #11
    I hope your hypothesis is wrong. If Apple refreshes after the Back to School Sale, I won't be buying a MBP . . I'll be going with an XPS.

    Also, the original release for Montevina was in June, so perhaps Apple had already planned on releasing during the B2SS.
     
  12. mxelre macrumors member

    mxelre

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    Quebec
    #12
    LMAO a petition, that should make things somewhat quicker:p I mean the Canadian petition for the iPhone was successful!:D

    As for my me I'm getting whatever MBP is on the market on July 26th, and correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it will be the santa rosa platform since I don't see apple updating their MBP's in the next 2 weeks:(

    However, if there's an update before university starts, in august for example, I might sell my current MBP and buy the revised version although I highly doubt it. I'm looking for a revision anywhere between beginning of October to late December.
     
  13. Minimoose 360 macrumors 65816

    Minimoose 360

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    Jul 7, 2008
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    NY
    #13
    I was a couple clicks from buying my MBP for my freshman year in college, then I heard about case redesign, new mobo and chipset, and all that jazz. Safe to say I'm holding off, but I really hope Apple announces things officially soon, I would like to get my fully loaded Macbook Pro BEFORE I go to college. ;)

    I don't really care about the iPod, but I'm not sure, does the $200 dollar I get with the promotion terminate on that same date? I sure hope not.
     
  14. Gigatiran macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2008
    #14
    Sony should be releasing a new laptop line the day Montevina comes out. So, hopefully Apple will follow suit.

    I mean honestly there is a lot of evidence that it will happen soon.

    And the discount is a year round thing. So no matter what time you buy a mac, as a student you will always get a discount.
     
  15. bollweevil thread starter macrumors 6502

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    #15
    People have made a lot of good points, so I will consolidate them:

    1. Regarding the "Buy a Mac for college and get a free iPod" promotion, hohohong has aptly pointed out that the laptops refreshed in the middle of the promotion last year. I hadn't thought of this, and I hadn't remembered that this particular promotion seems to come every single year. In light of this realization, I think it is most likely that Apple chose the end date of September 15th simply because that is the end of summer vacation.

    2. Hypothesis number two simply states that Apple really needs to update the MacBook Pro relatively quickly after Montevina comes out. I gave September 14th as a rough estimate, it could come sooner or later. I hope the revision comes sooner, and Apple probably hopes so too. But...

    I know a little bit about designing and manufacturing a product, and sometimes the product simply isn't ready at the time that would be strategically ideal. Kingcrowing said something similar.

    I think that Apple really needs to update the MBP quickly after Montevina comes out. Even if 90% of Apple's customers don't care about specs and revisions, the most vocal and influential 10% of Apple's customers DO care about specs, revisions, and competitiveness with Windows machines. The reviewers, the geeks, the market analysts, and the neighborhood computer whizzes of the world will all notice if Apple falls behind, and Apple will get a bad reputation. Then, the 90% of customers who didn't notice will hear that Apple isn't "cutting edge" and Apple will lose business. The MacBook is less important, and can straggle behind, but at least one Apple laptop needs to stay Pro-level and state-of-the-art.

    In summary, I have no idea when revisions will come out.
     
  16. kingcrowing macrumors 6502a

    kingcrowing

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    #16
    Apple doesn't care when Sony puts out laptops. Apple will sell laptops just as fast weather they put out montevina or now. Sony, Dell, HP, etc NEED to keep them up to date because all of those brands compete with each other. Although some people may prefer Dell to Sony, they are essentially the same thing, they have the same processors AND the same OS. That is why they need to be competitive with each other, if they aren't keeping up to the others there will be no reason to get one over the other.

    Apple on the other hand is not the same, they have OS X. That's the only reason I have an Apple. Sure their hardware looks nice, etc but OS X is the selling point for most of its customers, not the specs of the hardware, so Apple will release it whenever they're ready, not just because PC OEMs are releasing it the day it comes out, thats just not very 'apple' to do.
     
  17. CWallace macrumors 603

    CWallace

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    Seattle, WA
    #17
    Montevina and Santa Rosa are platforms and both use Penryn CPUs.

    Apple went to Penryn on the MBP because it ran cooler and used less power so it was better for Apple (less stress on the systems so lower warranty claim costs). The Penryns soon to be running on a Montevina systemboard are functionally no different then the ones now running on a Santa Rosa systemboard in terms of power draw and heat output.

    PC laptops often out-feature MacBook Pros, and yet Apple still sells millions of them every year. For example, our HP business laptops have a fingerprint reader, an integrated AT&T wireless network card, a Blu-Ray reader, and HDMI output (so I can watch Blu-Ray movies on an external monitor or digital TV).
     
  18. Stang68 macrumors 6502a

    Stang68

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    #18
    LOL!

    I think they will release them sometime in the middle of August because by that time most of the student who want to buy a laptop will have bought it already. This means Apple will have to deal with less people trying to do the "14-day restocking fee" thing. I believe we will be hearing some type of news this week regarding the MBP's.
     
  19. cthomet macrumors regular

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    #19
    i put my (hopeful) estimate at the last few weeks of august. gives some time for the iphone 3G hype to wear off and then they can create a buzz about another product. in light of the *leaked* pictures of a new mbp casing, i cant see apple waiting until november to release.

    lets also remember that nehalem will mark a significant change. from that release date (Q4 right? someone shed some light on release date) we can work backwards.
     
  20. CWallace macrumors 603

    CWallace

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    #20
    Mobile Nehalem CPUs (Clarksfield and Auburndale) won't be making an appearance until Q3 or Q4 2009. I expect Apple to move to them around Mac World 2010.
     
  21. makowb macrumors member

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    Jan 27, 2008
    #21
    This is incorrect on many accounts. First off, the chips will be slightly different. I don't know if they will have better manufacturing, chip design, or just modified power draw/speeds; but the montevina penryns have different model numbers as you can see from the attached pictures.

    Also from the attached pictures you can see that there are a few processors that have a lower power draw of 25w versus the 35w of the current-gen CPUs. If you compare the price points and the cache amounts of the CPUs, Apple will probably put P8600, P9500 (or the T9400 if they want to keep the buying prices EXACT), and T9600 (low, med, high respectively) into the montevina MBPs.

    This (visibly to the uneducated Pro user) would appear faster to all but the low end which may stay the same; 2.4 vs 2.4, 2.5 vs 2.53, 2.6 vs 2.8. This is assuming apple decides to use one chip (the high-end) that consumes more power than the low and mid, which they might just because high-end users might be willing to give up that extra battery. The only thing that I see keeping them from doing this would be their descriptions of battery life, which they like to keep simplified for their web page.

    Lastly, there is the FSB. It's not just the chipset that allows a greater FSB, it's the processor as well. The new ones have a 1066 FSB versus an 800 FSB. This point if all the other ones I made are moot, will assuredly have Apple using the newer CPUs so they can take better advantage of DDR3 (if not even until the future) and be faster in general.

    Edit: I forgot to attach the pics =p. And I noticed that my little tirade didn't address your "power draw and heat output" except for the first part o_O. This was because I just felt like maybe I should educate a little, don't take it as it's all aimed towards you.

    Edit II: If Apple actually does get DDR3 into the montevina laptops, DDR3 uses less power (1.5 vs 1.8) and therefore less heat.
     

    Attached Files:

  22. kockgunner macrumors 68000

    kockgunner

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    #22
    i don't have any facts upon which to base my hypothesis, but i think that the macbook pros will be released this september and the macbooks will be left until macworld '09 (since they always release something at macworld, i think it will be the macbooks, unless apple surprises us with a tablet...)
     
  23. Yixian macrumors 65816

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    Jun 2, 2007
    Location:
    Europe
    #23
    Pfft, who need mobile broadband, blu ray, HDMI and a decent GPU when itz one intch fick bAbY!

    I'm hoping the next MacBook Pros are another half and inch thinner, Apple can get rid of the optical drive and dedicated GPU if they like, by definition whatever Apple gives me is "all I need"! :D


    /sarcasm
     
  24. ZeelessOne macrumors member

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    Jul 1, 2008
    #24
    Man, I'm glad I read that twice. I thought it was saying that the Macbook Pro was budget conscious.

    I wasn't watching Apple real close this time last year, but I'm pretty sure new Macbook Pros came out this time last year with the Santa Rosa platform.

    Santa Rosa came May 9 while the Macbook Pro came out June 5. I remember because I was interested in it, then saw the price. My Dell with comparable specs (Inspiron 1520) was $1300 while the base Macbook Pro was $2000.
     
  25. Alan Taylor macrumors 6502

    Alan Taylor

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    #25
    Yea, they could name it something catchy - like Macbook Air :p :D
     

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