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10% of Consumers 'Very Likely' to Buy a Smartwatch in 2015, Suggesting 24M Apple Watches

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Apr 12, 2001
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According to a new survey conducted by analysts at UBS, interest in the smartwatch market is continuing to grow ahead of the Apple Watch launch early next year. Of the 4,000 respondents asked to partake in the survey across four different countries, about 10 percent cited that they are "very likely" to buy a smartwatch in the next year. Based on projections of Apple's iPhone sales and the current installed base of iPhones compatible with the Apple Watch, the analysts predict Apple will sell 24 million Apple Watches within the first nine months.
Figure 10 indicates that 10% of respondents (401 out of 4,000) are very likely and 17% (682 out of 4,000) somewhat likely to buy a smartwatch in the next 12 months. That is a three-fold increase vis-à-vis the 386 respondents claiming to already own a smartwatch and a four-fold increase if we assume that around one-third of the currently owned smartwatches are actually fitness bands.
Based on an estimate of 240 million iPhones compatible with Apple Watch being in customers' hands by the end of 2015, UBS suggests this could translate to 24 million Apple Watches sold in the first 9-12 months of availability, depending on supplies.

In a smaller survey of customers who registered as very likely to purchase a smart watch, the Apple Watch placed second to the Samsung Gear in buying intentions, although UBS expects those positions to reverse once the Apple Watch becomes available.

The analysts also expect the new Apple wearable to redefine the category much like previous products from the company have done for their respective technological categories. Despite first-version limitations in daily charging and iPhone tethering, UBS sees significant potential for the Apple Watch and predicts it will become the spiritual successor to the iPhone in the long-term.
Cellular and battery technology is not yet sufficiently miniaturized to fit in the Watch and allow independent functioning. We would think the ability to do so is maybe five years away. In fact, the screen size differential may mean that the Watch and the iPhone will prove complements rather than substitutes. Arguably that is the way the iPad and Mac might be playing out, different products for different jobs.

Given that about two-thirds of Apple's profit is generated by the iPhone, the company has to be concerned about the longer-term threat of replacement technology, whether it be a leap in handset technology or loss of key functions to wearables. With a sophisticated user interface and third-party apps coming on, Apple may be readying for the time when the Apple Watch encroaches on the smartphone market.
The Apple Watch is set to launch in "early 2015", reportedly in the "spring" according to an internal video from retail chief Angela Ahrendts.

Article Link: 10% of Consumers 'Very Likely' to Buy a Smartwatch in 2015, Suggesting 24M Apple Watches
 

usarioclave

macrumors 65816
Sep 26, 2003
1,447
1,506
It's going to be the ultimate in booty call tools, among other things. Hopefully they'll get it out by Valentine's day.
 
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Bane-Thunder

macrumors 6502
Mar 12, 2014
383
397
I just don't see it happening. Who would want an additional device to charge daily when they got their phone for that?

I love tech but I won't be investing in any smartwatch.
 
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medazinol

macrumors regular
Jul 17, 2002
227
338
Toronto
First rule of Apple products: never buy the first generation of any new product. Let someone else be the guinea pig and sort out the inevitable quality problems and issues. Buy the next model a year later.

Apple's penchant for secrecy negates their ability to thoroughly test products in the wild in all sorts of conditions. First adopters are the beta testers.

I'm not buying, I sure hope my wife restrains herself from buying me one ;)
 
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Daalseth

macrumors 6502a
Jun 16, 2012
569
236
Not the next big thing

So in other words even with all the hype and wall to wall press, only 27% are somewhat or very likely to buy one, and 73% are still not interested. Shave the interested percentage significantly when the unit arrives with half of the rumored functions (as history with other Apple products getting enhanced in the rumor mill would suggest) and you have what I suspected: a niche product that only sells in small quantities.
 
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maflynn

Moderator
Staff member
May 3, 2009
67,416
34,630
Boston
Chalk me up to one of the 90% not buying it. I also wonder when its time to put the money down on this, will consumers be more hesitant to drop 300 - 500 for such a product.

Saying it is one thing, actually spending the money is quite another.
 
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japanime

macrumors 68020
Feb 27, 2006
2,155
2,429
Japan
I'm also among the 90 percent. I have no interest in wearing an ugly tech watch.
 
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DanielSw

macrumors 6502
Aug 31, 2009
390
195
Clearwater, FL
First rule of Apple products: never buy the first generation of any new product. Let someone else be the guinea pig and sort out the inevitable quality problems and issues. Buy the next model a year later.

Wrong. I always buy first generation Apple products—when I see their value and usefulness—and I've been doing it for three decades.

The Watch will be no exception. I want the SS model with SS link or mesh band.
 
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bbeagle

macrumors 68040
Oct 19, 2010
3,420
2,684
Buffalo, NY
So in other words even with all the hype and wall to wall press, only 27% are somewhat or very likely to buy one, and 73% are still not interested. Shave the interested percentage significantly when the unit arrives with half of the rumored functions (as history with other Apple products getting enhanced in the rumor mill would suggest) and you have what I suspected: a niche product that only sells in small quantities.

I don't think the numbers mean what you think they mean.

Only 29% of Americans currently have a Tablet - ANY manufacturer's tablet.
http://www.engadget.com/2014/02/11/two-thirds-of-americans-now-have-smartphones/

If pretty much the same number of people want smart watches that own tablets, well, smart watches will be a smashing success.

27% is a HUGE number. Apple was only interested in 2% of the cell phone market originally.
 
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ArtOfWarfare

macrumors G3
Nov 26, 2007
9,014
4,889
I'll eat my own mustache if 24M Apple Watches are sold next year, (assuming Apple doesn't have some major new features / killer apps that they didn't already show off.)

It has a collection of neat ideas, but they don't come together to look like a product that warrants the price tag to me.

The iPhone, when it was first revealed, was the best iPod ever (which meant it was worth at least $300), plus it was the best phone ever (bump up by another $200), plus it was the best for personal email and web browsing (another $300). Plus it had a few other apps. That's how it warranted its huge price tag.

The Apple Watch? It has a few neat ideas, but none of them are worth $100+.
 
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bbeagle

macrumors 68040
Oct 19, 2010
3,420
2,684
Buffalo, NY
First rule of Apple products: never buy the first generation of any new product. Let someone else be the guinea pig and sort out the inevitable quality problems and issues. Buy the next model a year later.

First rule of geeks who love technology - buy the FIRST model the FIRST chance you can get it.

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I'll eat my own mustache if 24M Apple Watches are sold next year, (assuming Apple doesn't have some major new features / killer apps that they didn't already show off.)

Apple will undoubtedly have a February/March event where they revisit all the Apple watch features and show new ones, along with announce a sale date. Apple is hiding things for this event. That's just how Apple works.
 
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elgrecomac

macrumors 65816
Jan 15, 2008
1,161
158
San Diego
I've heard through the Silicon Valley grapevine that the target market demographic is primarily women. This will be a fashion accessory and tech gaget. Look at the new hires apple has make in the past 12 months and the Paris reveal and this becomes self evident. Interchangeable bands, loads of colors ...,this is first and foremost a fashion statement with tech wrapped around it.
 
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teslo

macrumors 6502a
Jun 9, 2014
929
599
looking back on the first gen iPad it seems pretty limited and non-functional, yet people loved it and it sold. sounds like this will be deja vu, and (like the iPad 2) the second apple watch will be the impressive sleek one.

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Why, can't people use their phone for that? Or will they get that lazy?

no, its just harder to snoop on a suspected lover when the evidence is attached to a limb.
 
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JeffyTheQuik

macrumors 68020
Aug 27, 2014
2,468
2,404
Charleston, SC and Everett, WA
I don't think the numbers mean what you think they mean.

Only 29% of Americans currently have a Tablet - ANY manufacturer's tablet.
http://www.engadget.com/2014/02/11/two-thirds-of-americans-now-have-smartphones/

If pretty much the same number of people want smart watches that own tablets, well, smart watches will be a smashing success.

27% is a HUGE number. Apple was only interested in 2% of the cell phone market originally.

I'd rather have 70% of 10% of 2 billion people (or 140 million units, using the China numbers as well) than 100% of zero people.
 
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d0minick

macrumors 6502
Mar 8, 2011
304
503
i buy a lot of 1st gen apple stuff. ipad, iphone, tv, and the like.

I am not getting this. I just don't see the application for it. Hopefully i'm wrong.

If i ever wear a watch, it is during functions and i feel sporting a classy watch (retro now? lol) is the way to go. The apple watch, IMO, is really ugly.
 
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882188

macrumors regular
Mar 18, 2014
115
0
I will buy one just to sell it on ebay 5 years later. ;)
Just like i did with a sealed 1st gen iphone last year (i sold it for 5k).
 
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Steve121178

macrumors 603
Apr 13, 2010
5,357
4,603
Bedfordshire, UK
I think this will be the most disappointing product launch for Apple in decades. I don't think the watch will sell in any serious volumes.

You couldn't pay me to wear one in place of one of my other watches. I don't like the entire concept.
 
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