Haswell Retina MacBook Pro Prediction!

[Livewings]

I'm predicting the future of 15" rMBP after tons of research and my known Apple knowledge for many years.

Discontinuation of 15" cMBP
13" cMBP base model remains for one more year.

$200 Price Drop so it becomes $1999 for the base model.

Intel Core i7 4700HQ with HD 5200 or i7 4700MQ with HD 4600

I'm split here so it can go both ways.
Some argued that having dedicated graphics makes no sense for GT3e in rMBP,
but with the high resolution screen, having better integrated GPU might allow having smoother UI
at higher scaled resolutions like 1920x1200 rendered as 3840x2400.

AMD Radeon HD 8870M/GT750M 1GB GDDR5 as standard for 15" rMBP

As many argued, Apple wants to make your computer as obsolete as quickly as possible.
So having more than 1GB VRAM is probably a dream.
I'm still hoping for NVIDIA cause I'm fed up with AMD's crappy drivers.

16GB Onboard Memory becomes standard

If price really drops, 8GB as standard might remain, but if the price remains stagnant,
I believe 16GB will be the norm for 15" rMBP.

Wireless AC included as standard.

Apple is always the frontier for Wireless Standards and it makes sense for them to adopt the Wireless AC standard.

Screen improvements.

Improved color gamut, better brightness, ghosting issue fixed?

256GB storage will remain the norm for many years to come.

Flash storage ain't cheap. Apple is also known for charging exorbitant amounts for their storage so they'll definitely be stingy here.




What do you guys think? Does it all seem feasible or it's just a dream that will never happen?

If most or all of this predictions come true, expect a major update of the rMBP including the 13" during October at the earliest.

 

[joshhedge]

Taken from Engadget http://www.engadget.com/2013/04/01/nvidia-geforce-gt700m-series/ - A quote from Nvidia regarding their rebranded 700M series.

"as the PR says they'll be in notebooks from "every leading manufacturer" in the coming months."

I believe from this that Apple will continue to use NVIDIA GPUs in their laptop range and hence the 750M would be appropriate.

If you truly believe that a $200 price drop is going to occur, then in no way will that model have 2GB of VRAM nor 16GB of RAM. I think Apple will continue with their current model of pricing, but introducing a lesser spec'd 15" to the line, as you predicted.

Your other points I fully agree with.

 

[Erasmus]

I'm not sure about the 8870M. It looks fantastic, except in gaming performance. Hopefully it's just early drivers, and throttling issues on the few notebooks that currently have it.

 

[bill-p]

Few things:

1) GT3e will consume more power, and put out more heat, so you either have a quad-core chip with GT3e, or a quad-core chip without GT3e but with dedicated graphics. Not both.

2) Radeon HD 8870M is way beyond the thermal design target of the current rMBP, and the current rMBP is already showing signs of throttling depending on conditions. If Apple is using something with similar thermal target from AMD side, then it absolutely has to be something along the line of HD 7790M or 7850M. And also along that line, you can forget about 2GB GDDR5.

3) There is no 32GB modules available, so it makes no sense for 16GB to become standard, as then there would be no point in offering any "upgrade" other than processor and storage space. That said, 8GB is likely to remain as standard for a while yet.

4) Unless Apple uses a new screen technology, it's doubtful that the current screen can get any brighter without sucking battery life like crazy. So another no there.

5) I think Apple may decide to keep an older generation rMBP around at the $1999 price point rather than offering a new rMBP at $1999. Either that or the $1999 rMBP won't have discrete graphics.

Seriously, it's a $200 price drop. Something significant will have to give.

So I think you are off by a pretty huge margin.

 

[Mr MM]

I'm not sure about the 8870M. It looks fantastic, except in gaming performance. Hopefully it's just early drivers, and throttling issues on the few notebooks that currently have it.

According to the owners lounge in notebook review, this is a hard throttling based on temps, most likely a bios limitation imposed, much like the 650m in the asus U500, thought what throttles is the cpu and rarely the gpu, on the samsung its the oposite

Few things:

1) GT3e will consume more power, and put out more heat, so you either have a quad-core chip with GT3e, or a quad-core chip without GT3e but with dedicated graphics. Not both.

Not really, power gating works for the igpu as well, it doesnt need to keep its maximum clocks, just to stay active enough to be a pass through

2) Radeon HD 8870M is way beyond the thermal design target of the current rMBP, and the current rMBP is already showing signs of throttling depending on conditions. If Apple is using something with similar thermal target from AMD side, then it absolutely has to be something along the line of HD 7790M or 7850M. And also along that line, you can forget about 2GB GDDR5.

not really, it has the same tdp as the 650m, thought the 750m despite being the same thing as the 650m has dropped its TDP ratings, due to nvidia mischievous GPU boost 2.0 AKA P4 tdp problem strikes back

and there isnt a 7790m. What may happen is that the new 8700m series may appear. Still there is such a probable gap in performance that I much prefer the 8870m

Here is a m6000 with the clocks of the 7870m
http://www.3dmark.com/3dm11/4891670

here are some benchies on the 7850m

http://www.3dmark.com/3dm11/4732727
http://www.3dmark.com/3dm11/5069841

here is a benchie of the 750m snatched from some chinese forum

and here is a benchie of a 650m at around the same clock of the 750m WITH the GPU boost 2.0 activated at its maximum

http://s1161.photobucket.com/user/jakubp12/media/1035core1729mem.jpg.html

http://forum.notebookreview.com/app...p-overclocking-results-gaming-benchmarks.html

there is a good difference in performance, and AMD will really benefit creative pros that use apps with OpenCL and OpenGL, since nvidia doesnt hold a candle in that area

3) There is no 32GB modules available, so it makes no sense for 16GB to become standard, as then there would be no point in offering any "upgrade" other than processor and storage space. That said, 8GB is likely to remain as standard for a while yet.

Depends, while this is solid thinking, on the stand point of stock, AKA dead money, it makes sense. To offer few options with added changes to the mobo is a welcome saving feature. So in the end I think you are right, while this may also be true

 

[wolfboy]

Realistically what you can probably expect:

• Reduction to $1999 for the base model
• Probably $2600 for top model
• 750M for GPU
• 256GB SSD is definitely staying
• 8GB could possibly be upped to 16GB but I doubt it

 

[Livewings]

Realistically what you can probably expect:

• Reduction to $1999 for the base model
• Probably $2600 for top model
• 750M for GPU
• 256GB SSD is definitely staying
• 8GB could possibly be upped to 16GB but I doubt it

I'm expecting Apple to use a regular 8870M or an underclocked GTX 760M hopefully with a cut-down GK106. Anything other than that is terribly disappointing since performance will be almost exactly the same with the current overclocked GT 650M in the rMBP. It just doesn't make sense to use GT 750M.

 

[bill-p]

Not really, power gating works for the igpu as well, it doesnt need to keep its maximum clocks, just to stay active enough to be a pass through

I'm not sure they can scale that powerful a GPU down to the point where it doesn't really affect overall power consumption and heat at all. But we'll see.

And there are still high chances that Apple would go for GT2 to have more battery life in their devices. If anything, Apple has shown a trend of prioritizing battery life over performance.

not really, it has the same tdp as the 650m

I have yet to see a source with the correct TDP for the 650M, but I know for sure that it can't be that high.

The 2011 MacBook Pro 15" could only fit a max of 6770M, which is around 30W, before it starts throttling due to heat. That's a thicker computer than the rMBP. If it can only muster that much cooling, then I don't think the rMBP could do 33% better.

Meanwhile, the desktop version of the 8870M is 55W to 80W in TDP. Chances are it'll stay around that same ballpark (or 55W), so it's still higher than what the 650M can do.

thought the 750m despite being the same thing as the 650m has dropped its TDP ratings, due to nvidia mischievous GPU boost 2.0 AKA P4 tdp problem strikes back

http://www.notebookcheck.net/NVIDIA-GeForce-GT-750M.90245.0.html

Notebookcheck says the 750M seems similar to the 650M and 660M, which are around 35-40W. I think that's a more accurate guestimate based on what past MacBook Pro were able to handle in terms of heat.

and there isnt a 7790m. What may happen is that the new 8700m series may appear. Still there is such a probable gap in performance that I much prefer the 8870m

Sorry, I meant 8790M.

But still, the 8870M is outside the thermal profile of the rMBP. Especially if you group a GT3e chip together in the mess.

there is a good difference in performance, and AMD will really benefit creative pros that use apps with OpenCL and OpenGL, since nvidia doesnt hold a candle in that area

AMD OpenGL performance isn't really in sync with compatibility:

http://www.g-truc.net/post-0522.html#menu

nVidia has incompatibility issues with some drivers, too, but in general, they pass more tests than AMD.

AMD still needs to do a lot more work if they want to make this work for professional IMO. It's not performance that's necessary (that's just icing on the cake), but they need to fix their compatibility issues.

At least now it's a lot better than in 2011 from what I can see. See the state of 2011:
http://www.g-truc.net/post-0436.html#menu

It's pathetic...

Depends, while this is solid thinking, on the stand point of stock, AKA dead money, it makes sense. To offer few options with added changes to the mobo is a welcome saving feature. So in the end I think you are right, while this may also be true

I haven't seen Apple pass up on a chance to wring a little money out of their users. It's always been the case. They only upped the specs of the MacBook Air last year because they were dropping the prices of Pro computers IMO (a MBA 13" and a MBP 13" are roughly the same price), otherwise, I think they would have kept the same configuration forever.

 

[Livewings]

According to CPU-World, processors with GT3e has the same power consumption with their GT2 counterparts. The main difference between those processors is GT3e processors have lower frequency than their GT2 counterparts to balance out the GPU power requirements.

47W for 4700HQ (GT3e) & 4700MQ (GT2).

 

[Mr MM]

I'm not sure they can scale that powerful a GPU down to the point where it doesn't really affect overall power consumption and heat at all. But we'll see.

heat is tdp, it has the same characteristics of the nvidia gpu, power consumption on the other hand is a problem, the 90w adapter from the samsung series 7 chronos, struggles with that, much like the asus U500 struggles with the 650m, and asus uses 35w tdp intel cpus

And there are still high chances that Apple would go for GT2 to have more battery life in their devices. If anything, Apple has shown a trend of prioritizing battery life over performance.

there is nothing that can discount that, I was simply pointing out that heat production of the gpu should only be enough for allowing the pass through, thats usually quite low, since the notebooks now usually have either enduro or optimus, and when the cooling is adequate (looking at you xps 15) it can handle the max turbo boost for extended periods

I have yet to see a source with the correct TDP for the 650M, but I know for sure that it can't be that high.

it is that high, its a 650, and that card is 80w, simple as that, there are so much binning and lower clocks that you can make things work downwards on power consumption and tdp

The 2011 MacBook Pro 15" could only fit a max of 6770M, which is around 30W, before it starts throttling due to heat. That's a thicker computer than the rMBP. If it can only muster that much cooling, then I don't think the rMBP could do 33% better.

the TDP from the 6770m is 35w

http://www.techpowerup.com/gpudb/323/AMD_Radeon_HD_6770M.html

and no it starts to throttle due to power consumption

http://www.notebookcheck.net/Review-Apple-MacBook-Pro-15-Late-2011-2-4-GHz-6770M-glare.66918.0.html

heat build up doesnt help in the case either, there are tons of fluctuations given to that and power comsumption

Meanwhile, the desktop version of the 8870M is 55W to 80W in TDP. Chances are it'll stay around that same ballpark (or 55W), so it's still higher than what the 650M can do.


http://www.notebookcheck.net/NVIDIA-GeForce-GT-750M.90245.0.html

Notebookcheck says the 750M seems similar to the 650M and 660M, which are around 35-40W. I think that's a more accurate guestimate based on what past MacBook Pro were able to handle in terms of heat.

the 7770 is 80w, the same as the 650

they are similar since its the same card, the trick here was that nvidia pulled a intel P4 trick, they use a mainstream TDP, not a real one under load with what the card has to offer, so in that sense, what they did was, provide a baseline TDP, with a max TDP to be achieved when using gpu boost 2.0, nasty trick, which leads us to check every notebook that has that sham, to see if you really get the performance that is being advertised, off course the one with full gpu boost 2.0

Thats why they lowered the 750m tdp. What i see is that depending on the notebook the 650m is going to perform the same as the 750m, pathetic

Sorry, I meant 8790M.

But still, the 8870M is outside the thermal profile of the rMBP. Especially if you group a GT3e chip together in the mess.

no problem typos/mistakes happen, I still dont think that is going to collide with the TDP from those other parts, power gating is very aggressive on the cpu and igpu, this is one of the things that we will see when it happens or not.

AMD OpenGL performance isn't really in sync with compatibility:

http://www.g-truc.net/post-0522.html#menu

nVidia has incompatibility issues with some drivers, too, but in general, they pass more tests than AMD.

AMD still needs to do a lot more work if they want to make this work for professional IMO. It's not performance that's necessary (that's just icing on the cake), but they need to fix their compatibility issues.

At least now it's a lot better than in 2011 from what I can see. See the state of 2011:
http://www.g-truc.net/post-0436.html#menu

It's pathetic...

the guy is using a beta driver, not WHQL, there is a clear reason that those are not updated often in both camps, they simply take more time to see if its working with most used apps. There is also a reason that for example workstations receive much less driver updates, they need to work with everything. His methodology is wrong in so many ways.

Still that doesnt explain at all why much more programs are ditching cuda for openCL and GL, its simple nvidia focused in gaming with kepler, not the other way around, so a 680 loses in most benchies to a 580, which is pathetic in any kind of metric given the disparity of performance in games. A lot of creative pros that used cuda are now opting for the 7970, and that card is just around 200% better than the 580 in some things. The trump card for nvidia that arrived pretty late for the bowl was tesla and the newly released titan

And that is a steep price compared to the 7970, not arguing the performance isnt there, but its very steep, sometimes it matter or not

I haven't seen Apple pass up on a chance to wring a little money out of their users. It's always been the case. They only upped the specs of the MacBook Air last year because they were dropping the prices of Pro computers IMO (a MBA 13" and a MBP 13" are roughly the same price), otherwise, I think they would have kept the same configuration forever.

I dont know, again Im not arguing that they wont do what you said, Im saying that they can cut cost of support and stock.

In the mbp line up, they had 2 models for the 13, 3 models for the 15, now you have 2 models for the rmbp 13 and 6 models for the 15. That is quite costly wasted money. And given that they have revision each year, you double those numbers, this has been a costly year for apple given the new retina models. And that was actually one of the reasons that the early machines didnt have the option for 16gb in the base model, or the mbas took a long time to offer 8gb in the base model.

They have to make more bucks per machine (thats has been pointed again and again on the analysts review of how the company is run, afterall it went downwards last year), and standardisation of parts provided is one thing that you do. Not that there isnt, but it could be improved. So 2 models for the rmbp 13 and 3 models for the 15 makes a lot of economic sense

 

[Freyqq]

According to CPU-World, processors with GT3e has the same power consumption with their GT2 counterparts. The main difference between those processors is GT3e processors have lower frequency than their GT2 counterparts to balance out the GPU power requirements.

47W for 4700HQ (GT3e) & 4700MQ (GT2).

That's exactly why a GT3 in a rmbp 15" makes no sense. It already had a discrete video card for everything intensive, which is the only the time the difference between GT2 and GT3 would be noticeable.

 

[moxxey]

I'm predicting the future of 15" rMBP after tons of research and my known Apple knowledge for many years....

$200 Price Drop so it becomes $1999 for the base model.

16GB Onboard Memory becomes standard

Well, clearly not that knowledgeable. Apple is highly unlikely to both UP the specifications, increase the memory to the current maximum capacity AND decrease the base cost.

This list is your wishful thinking, not what Apple is likely to release.

There's no way most users need more than 8GB standard. I happily get by on 8GB and have Photoshop, Dreamweaver and other apps running. No issues at all with 8GB and my rMBP. I'd prefer 16GB, but 8GB is fine.

 

[Aegelward]

If Apple do indeed drop the cMBP i'd hope they drop the retina models to the same price point as the cMBPs

 

[cirus]

I'm predicting the future of 15" rMBP after tons of research and my known Apple knowledge for many years.

Discontinuation of 15" cMBP
13" cMBP base model remains for one more year.

$200 Price Drop so it becomes $1999 for the base model.

Intel Core i7 4700HQ with GT3e Graphics

Why? Rumours has it Apple has been pushing for eDRAM for Intel's Integrated Graphics since Ivy Bridge to no avail so it makes sense for them to adopt the the GT3e version. They could be the first ones too, who knows.

AMD Radeon HD 8870M 2GB GDDR5 as standard.

1GB Graphics in 2013 is equally pathetic. Apple will realize by then
1GB for the huge resolution is not enough. Apple might continue using
Nvidia parts (Nvidia GeForce 745M or 750M) and I might be wrong about the AMD prediction.

16GB Onboard Memory becomes standard

As memory becomes cheaper, I believe 16GB is the norm for today's high end laptops. 16GB modules might be developed and 32GB option might be available in the future?

Wireless AC included as standard.

Apple is always the frontier for Wireless Standards and it makes sense for them to adopt the Wireless AC standard.

Screen improvements.

Improved brightness and ghosting issue finally fixed?

256GB storage will remain the norm for many years to come.

Flash storage ain't cheap. Apple is also known for charging exorbitant amounts for their storage so they'll definitely be stingy here.




What do you guys think? Does it all seem feasible or it's just a dream that will never happen?

If most or all of this predictions come true, expect a major update of the rMBP including the 13" during October at the earliest.

Apple has always skimped on RAM and vram, don't expect apple to change this anytime soon.

There is no reason to use gt3e with a dedicated gpu.

8870m is faster than the 650m (not the 900 mhz retina version) by about 30%.

650m does not have a tdp of 75 watts or something ridiculous like that but is probably around 40 watts under gaming load (the desktop 650m is 62 watts according to nvidia and runs at 1035/2500 and is on a desktop board--power usage is much higher when you consider all that pcb + fans). With the exception of the high end, gcn is more efficient than kepler. 8870 also has lower clocks (<800) which means less power as power consumption does not scale linearly with clockspeed.

 

[koyoot]

Low end 15 inch rMBP - 1899 - 1999$
High End - 2399 - 2499.

QC i7 Haswell 2.4 with GT2 GPU.
8 GB 1600 MHz RAM with option of 16 GB
GT750M OC'ed to 1000 MHz on core and 1600 MHz on Memory.
256 GB SSD.

QC i7 Haswell 2.7 GHz, GT2 GPU with option of 2.8 GHz, 8 MB cache
16 GB 1600 MHz RAM
Same discrete GPU as lower end rMBP
512 GB SSD.

Edit. GT750M has a TDP of 33W.

 

[trigonometry]

Same line-up, minor spec bump, same price. I think anything new or major for Macs is going to be aimed at the Mac Pro.

 

[adjeff8]

Well, clearly not that knowledgeable. Apple is highly unlikely to both UP the specifications, increase the memory to the current maximum capacity AND decrease the base cost.

This list is your wishful thinking, not what Apple is likely to release.

There's no way most users need more than 8GB standard. I happily get by on 8GB and have Photoshop, Dreamweaver and other apps running. No issues at all with 8GB and my rMBP. I'd prefer 16GB, but 8GB is fine.

I do pretty much the same as you do, and I know 16GB is waaay overkill, but I'm gonna do it anyway for the simple reason that you can't upgrade after you buy and you never know what the future demands of OSX and other software will be. Better safe than sorry. 3 years from now that extra $200 will have no meaning to me

 

[Moskiton]

The real question is when its going to happen?

I have this dilemma, should i buy a rMbp now or wait until June/September??

 

[Ifti]

The real question is when its going to happen?

I have this dilemma, should i buy a rMbp now or wait until June/September??

Im in the same boat!

 

[CJM]

This is a great thread. However, I'd bet money on NVIDIA having their 700 series in the new rMBP. There's the whole GPU switching technology to think about, too.

 

[silvetti]

The real question is when its going to happen?

I have this dilemma, should i buy a rMbp now or wait until June/September??

Wait...

Waiting myself as well.

Unless you will lose money without it (work related issue)

 

[adjeff8]

The real question is when its going to happen?

I have this dilemma, should i buy a rMbp now or wait until June/September??

Wait. I'm waiting. Actually I've been waiting since last June. It would be a travesty if I give in now. I must say though, every time I got to the Apple store I play with that 15" for twenty mins and it's awfully tempting.

 

[Erasmus]

This is a great thread. However, I'd bet money on NVIDIA having their 700 series in the new rMBP. There's the whole GPU switching technology to think about, too.

I don't understand your point about graphics switching...

Apple have so far had at least two MBP generations with completely transparent graphics switching. With both NVIDIA and AMD.

 

[dusk007]

Apple have so far had at least two MBP generations with completely transparent graphics switching. With both NVIDIA and AMD.

What is transparent about it? If it switches while applications are running it breaks most of the time. The only thing Apple has in terms of graphics switching is a way to switch without rebooting or a logout and a script that turns the dedicated GPU on whenever an applications is started that might require and gpu prowess at all.
If it were transparent you could actually switch without closing apps and not run into problems. The application could actually just deal with one driver while the hardware is turned on or off whicheverway the load requires it. Would be nice if Apple would actually get some Optimus/ADS like transparent GPU switching instead of this broken implementation that wastes energy in 95% of the cases while saving something in maybe 5%.

 

[gregornz]

The real question is when its going to happen?

I have this dilemma, should i buy a rMbp now or wait until June/September??

+ 1 for wait!

I'm waiting too. I bought the Mrs an air last week, which she wanted just coz it looks good, and then I discovered why Mac users love macs... Simply the best laptop you can get! I use the air more than her now, so I gotta get my own mac!

I figure that if the haswell models aren't a good step up from the current rMBP (like lighter, longer battery or more storage) I'll just pick up an 'old one' at a discount.

How much do the prices of old stock usually drop buy when a new model comes out?