Right my calculations are complete and here, ladies and gents, are my conclusions.
I'm predicting a tight finish at both ends of the table, with on the last afternoon of the season the title, fourth Champions League slot and two of the three relegation places undecided. But here's how my sums think it'll finish...
- Manchester United 87
[*]Liverpool 85
[*]Chelsea 82
[*]Arsenal 70
[*]Aston Villa 68
[*]Everton 66
- Fulham 58
- Wigan 56
- Tottenham 53
- West Ham 47
- Portsmouth 47
- Man City 44
- Bolton 44
- Stoke 42
- Hull City 41
- Blackburn 38
- Newcastle 35
[*]Sunderland 33
[*]West Brom 33
[*]Middlesbrough 27
But Jaffa! How does it work?
Basically, I split the division up into three groups the Big Boys (the top four plus Villa and Everton), Relegation Fodder (Blackburn, Hull City, Middlesbrough, Newcastle, Portsmouth, Stoke, Sunderland and West Brom) plus the rest of the division as mid-tablers. I then calculated the average points gained by each team in their last three games against each of these groups, home and away both League and Cup matches were counted. I then compared these averages for each upcoming fixture, to give me the result.
So, for example, City play Manchester United at home on the last day of the season. The Tigers have an average points tally of 0 points at home against the top clubs, whereas United have averaged 3 points against the bottom ones. Therefore, the Reds win this fixture and earn three points.
Hmm... are you likely to have made any errors?
Err, most likely. Let's just say that any results skewed by this represent the potential for unexpected upsets, okay.
Do you actually have a life, then?
It would seem not.