It was never going to increase before the base MacBook Pro increased. I do suspect it'll increase next year, but to 12GB rather than 16 or 18. 4GB of RAM is close enough to free that it's just about Apple upselling.
As SoC advances are incremental at best and offer little advantage to regular users, Apple will need to lean on upgrades to RAM and storage to lure in people that already that already own Apple silicon Macs.
What else can they lure us in with at this point? Better screen tech? Return to attractive looking machines like the M1 MacBook Air? No more notch or at least a notch with Face ID?
I'll be in the market for a new personal laptop next year, with 16/18GB RAM and 1TB storage, minimum, to replace my 8GB/256 M1 Air. For the first time in decades I might actually look to Windows unless Apple up their game.
I fully agree with your assessment.
On potentially moving to Windows, let me share my experience as I see many starting to contemplate a potential move. I totally get it, it makes perfect sense. At some point, you just get fed up of being price gouged, and want not to support the company anymore. That was me in early 2022, completely against the direction Apple had been going with the Mac (soldered SSD/RAM, price gouging on upgrades, keeping base RAM too low to do the upsell, adding notches to Macs but with no Face ID to benefit from it, no touch screen, etc.). I wanted to buy a laptop and not feel totally ripped off. So I decided to move away from Mac OS after more than 10 years and buy a 15" Dell XPS, which on paper looked like an amazing value and is routinely called the best Macbook competitor on the Windows side due to its sleek looks and build. I bought it with 16GB RAM and 512GB SSD for $1,300, then upgraded the RAM to 32GB and added a 2TB SSD (yes, the XPS has user-replaceable RAM and 2 SSD slots). Sounds amazing, right? Well, 2 years later, I fully regret leaving Mac OS and buying this XPS. I have not had the hardware issues on the XPS that many others have experienced, but I never stopped missing the amazing Macbook trackpad (XPS trackpad is large, but horrible), never got used to the speakers, which were much inferior to my previous 2018 MBP, and the screen quality was not the same (even though it had the benefit of touch screen; which I ended up not even using much), I missed the integration that I had between Mac OS and iPhone, which is nonexistent in Windows (the Intel tool meant to close this gap is trash), and overall just got sick of the quirks of Windows. I'm sick of Microsoft pushing OneDrive and CoPilot, harassing to use Edge, non-stop updates from Windows and Dell software, etc etc. Even though hardware-wise, it was a great value, the overall experience was, in reality, a massive downgrade from what I had in Mac OS. Just way too many compromises. I'm ready to sell the XPS and come back to Mac OS and will likely buy the new 15" inch Air and will bite the bullet and pay for the extra RAM and SSD space that I want.
I see many are right now in the phase of concern, disgust, and anger and want to take action on it. Been there, done that. I'm past that and I'm currently, sadly, in the acceptance phase, where I just pay whatever I need to pay to get the machine that, while not perfect and not the best value, overall makes me happy. The unfortunate part is that Apple knows the grip it has on all of us, hence why this SSD/RAM and upgrade pricing structure is not new and will not change. Sure, at some point, the RAM will increase to 12GB or 16GB, the same as when it increased from 4GB to 8GB, but there will be new grievances by then. The massive upsell structure will continue, there is no changing that. For Apple to change these practices, Mac shipments would need to materially drop, not for a quarter, but for a long sustained period of time (well beyond 12 months), which I don't see happening.
I don't want to discourage everyone from doing what they believe is best for them, I only wanted to share my experience, being a long-time Mac user who actually tried to move away.