Speaking of the F1 driver market, The Race had an article on the "death" of the driver market and what "killed" it.
With Leclerc, Norris and Verstappen now signed through (at least) 2030, this likely locks out Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes and Red Bull through the end of the decade when you consider it is likely that Hamilton, Piastri, Antonelli, Russell and Hadjar have safe seats through that period, as well.
This should be an area of concern not just with the top teams, but also the mid-field, as it means the number of seats available each year for rookies is shrinking and shrinking dramatically. For 2027, only two of 24 seats are believed to be "available" - Esteban Ocon's at Haas and Liam Lawson's at Racing Bulls. And Lawson may yet eke out another year considering how he has been performing and Yuki Tsunoda continues to be discussed for Ocon's seat.
But even if both Ocon and Lawson are released and Haas and Racing Bulls promote rookies rather than sign former F1 drivers, there are a lot of rookies looking to move up. If Tsolov wins the F2 Championship this year, he will join last year's champion Leonardo Fornaroli looking for a seat. Fornaroli is currently McLaren's reserve driver, but Norris is now signed through 2030 and Piastri is likely doing enough to keep his seat, at least for 2027. Rafael Câmara has won the F3 championship and will be able to compete in F2 for a second year in 2027 if he cannot land Ocon's seat at Haas. But if Nikola Tsolov wins the 2026 F2 championship, he will have to move on. As a Red Bull Junior, replacing Lawson at Racing Bulls would be best for him (if not Liam), but if Lawson is retained for 2027, he could then be promoted to a reserve and test driver position at either Red Bull or Racing Bulls (especially if Yuki either goes to Haas or is released, though Racing Bulls could also release Ayumu Iwasa). So you have two (potential) F2 champions and an F3 champion who could end up "warming the bench" at three F1 teams because there are no open seats at any of them.
Since the 1990s, driver turnover in F1 has been on a steady decline as driver contracts in general have grown longer. And with the top four teams (Ferrari, Mercedes, Red Bull and McLaren) this trend is even more pronounced. Verstappen and Norris will likely drive their entire careers at Red Bull* and McLaren and Leclerc effectively will be a lifer at Ferrari since he has driven for them since his second year in the sport and his current contract takes him into the 2030s.
The Race points to the current cost cap as a major reason for this. Before the cap, the top teams spent upwards of a half-billion a year. With the cap more than halving that, they now have hundreds of millions of "free" money available and with driver salaries not part of the cap, that money can be diverted to hiring - and retaining - top talent.
That cost cap also prevents the midfield from improving their positions. Look at Aston Martin and Williams - they are both spending right up to the cap on new facilities, but they are still playing catch-up to teams like Mercedes and Ferrari who were able to fully kit out their factory and development infrastructure before the cap. Even Red Bull is having to wait years for their new wind tunnel to come online - partly because of the complexity of building one, but partly because they are super expensive and the team needs to spread out the spend over years to stay within the cap.
The Formula 1 driver market is dead. But who killed it? And when will it truly return?
www.the-race.com
* - Yes, Max started with Toro Rosso, but they are part of the Red Bull family.
