3G iPhone preview at WWDC, Release July 11 - Who, When Where, What, Why & how much

[Justinerator]

I have a question. If Verizon said yes, what was Apple going to do? Were they just going to give us 3G and say too bad for the battery life and form factor? Or would we even have received iPhones by the time we did?

interesting question. I would figure they would have released it at the same time, but possibly with a larger charge capability to counter the excess drainage... just my .02

 

[JBaker122586]

And it should have:

Stylus optional

Will NEVER happen.

iSight (1st even true Video Phone baby!!)

Will not happen for YEARS.

SD card slot

Will NOT happen.

"Word" compatible program (read and right, saves in Word format)

Can easily happen without a hardware update.

 

[t0mat0]

The time from sampling to commercial handsets is much longer than six months. Broadcom has indicated that the first handsets based on this chipset wont be out until 2009 and I think the 2nd half is more likely than the 1st.

Doing EDGE then 3G allowed Apple to crawl and walk with the iPhone (remember the iPhone preproduction was looking ropey very close to the keynote for example). The selling point of Internet in your pocket would have been blown out of the water if 3G had originally been there, as nonoptimised power usage of the 3G chip, combined with the higher use of the internet in comparison to nearly any other mobile device, would have lead to flat batteries way too quickly.

Going back to convergedworld's point: I tracked down the article in question (sort of - it's syndicated to other EE's). First thing to note, it's from October 2007. There's been a recent major mobile phone convention since then, and 4 months.

http://www.eeproductcenter.com/micro/brief/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=202402764

The specific wording is needed, as it can imply things:
Mike Civiello, senior director of marketing at Broadcom's Mobile and Wireless business unit: "We have engineering samples and we anticipate that HSUPA phones targeting the mid-tier price market using the part will be on sale during the first half of 2009"

"Mid tier price market" So if the iPhone was classified as High tier, it could ship earlier. Note that Broadcom's already noted that that the BCM21551 is "available now to early access customers".
The quote:

"on their introductory conference call they indicated that the chip they have now is the first tape-out and billed it as "Version 0 Rev A," and not yet completely verified. That indicates to us that general sampling is probably not before the second half of 2008. Broadcom said that the device would be shipping in cellphones "in 2009," but we assume that's the second half of 2009, since a typical handset design-in takes about 18 months."

comes from the mouth of EE - and not Broadcom. In the same article, another interesting lead - It might not just be a race between Samsung and Broadcom:

"Infineon [who it's noted had chips in the iPhone see diagram below] (IFX) is also developing a single-die UMTS/HxPA solution, and is currently shipping single-die GSM/GPRS chips to a number of customers, in volume. We have confirmed that IFX is now producing "conventional" UMTS baseband chips for at least two cellphone companies, one of which appears to be Samsung and the other may be for Apple's HSDPA iPhone. Since IFX is the supplier of the EDGE baseband and RF transceiver for apple's iPhone, the follow-on idea is not a stretch. Besides, IFX is currently the only volume merchant vendor of a UMTS RF transceiver (other than Qualcomm) and is having one of the most advanced RF roadmaps including WiMAX and LTE, driving 65 nm and beyond.

So, it also appears that Samsung may be breaking away from Qualcomm's WCDMA iron grip with UMTS basebands from both Broadcom and Infineon.

Last year, Comneon, a wholly-owned subsidiary of IFX, and InterDigital (IDCC) expanded cooperation to include IDCC's 3G (WCDMA, HSDPA & HSUPA) protocol stack with the IFX GSM/GPRS/EDGE baseband IPR. IFX, in turn, has also licensed the 3G stack to, of all companies, Broadcom."

Your thoughts?


In terms of styluses - the only problem with fingers is that they're not seethrough. Styluses are thin. Symbian S60 4th Edition will be doing finger and stylus. We may see Jobs espouse stylii (?) yet (iTablet, future Apple product lore tells it...)

 

[convergedworld]

"Mid tier price market" So if the iPhone was classified as High tier, it could ship earlier. Note that Broadcom's already noted that that the BCM21551 is "available now to early access customers".

I believe that my source for the 2009 date came out of a conference call that Broadcom held on the day that the chip was first announced. A 18-24 month lag between sampling and commercial handsets isnt particularly unusual....I believe that Qualcomm had a similar schedule for their MSM7500 chipset.

FWIW, I posted my thoughts on the possible source/timing for the 3G iPhone chipsets on my blog.

http://convergedworld.blogspot.com/2008/02/joining-hunt-for-3g-iphone.html

I see Infineon and Samsung repeating their design wins as the most likely scenario...which would probably mean a summer launch.

 

[bubba316]

3G iPhone isn't coming out until at least Q3 or Q4, most likely Q4. Apple will not obsolete a product that's only been out seven months so soon.

 

[natejohnstone@g]

3G iPhone isn't coming out until at least Q3 or Q4, most likely Q4. Apple will not obsolete a product that's only been out seven months so soon.

I disagree. By Q3 it will be a full year old. One year in the world of cell phones is a VERY long time. The Sony Walkman phone I have now was brand new in Dec. 06 for $350 pre-discount, and by June 07 (6 months later) I got a $100 gift card just for taking the phone for free! Since then, 2 Sony Walkman successors have come, and another will be out Q4 of this year.

The cell phone world is nothing like the consumer electronics world (although even that is beginning to change more rapidly than in the past). Things turn over very quickly. The current iPhone will be laughably outperformed by the competition by Q4 of this year (in many cases it already is, as we're already discusses here).

The iPhone has grabbed a lot of Apple fanboys and others looking for the "cool factor." But to move beyond that and hit 10M units (which they are WAY off pace right now based on the Macworld stats) they need to generate buyers from the smartphone market, the younger market, the business market, etc.

I for one would love to get an iPhone--I've literally wanted one for about 2 years now--but I need a phone that can work with carriers in Europe and Japan because I will be moving to one of those places next year and can't afford a bricked phone.

All the markets that needs to penetrate with iPhone will be gobbled up by all the other 3G phones and devices soon--and with 2-year contracts.

1) There is no way will sell 10M of the current iPhones by the end of the year

2) If waits until the Holiday season or even Q4 for iPhone 2 they will have missed out on too much of the market...like me.

3) If Jobs really is going to stick to his 10M promise, they'll HAVE to either come out with a new 3G iPhone (with other good additions too in order to generate sufficient buzz) or drop the prices on the current iPhones by $100 NOW and then by another $100 in Q3

--The deal-breaker in all this is that if they release ANOTHER type of iPhone in Q4 along with an update of the current one. A cheaper iPhone Nano or some other sub $200 version would be priced to move a lot of units.

 

[bubba316]

I think they can grab support from some of those people you mentioned through software updates. I got my iPhone last month after 1.1.3 came out. The my location feature addition got me into the store. Add MMS, stereo bluetooth, and other things through software and sales might accelerate.

I agree the cell phone market is rapidly changing, but the beauty of the iPhone is that it can keep up without a change in hardware.

 

[wizard]

I'm going to see if I can find anything that rivals it, and look into the current tear down chips in the iPhone, but as I said, the Broadcom SoC just kicks everyone elses ass right now. Unless Apple's in cahoots with a secret R&D SoC with Samsung etc, then Broadcom is it.

Some time ago Apple was rumored to be working with Intel on custom chips. Many think that was the chip that went into AIR but I'm not to sure. If Intel was to offer up true custom chips they would likely be grown around Silverthorne. Intel is very interested in going after ARM based devices and you have to be willing to do custom and SOC for that market. So I see potential for Apple to get away from ARM.

Otherwise your evaluation is correct the Broadcom chip is really just the nuts. In a way I do wish Apple would go that route but then on the other hand I see Apple as in a position to leverage a custom chip at this point. The goal there would be to put iPhone specific tech right into the SOC.

Unlike others here I do believe the 3G iPhone is nearer than many suspect. I'm not sure if it will be the iPhone 2 everyone is talking about or simply an upgrade of the current unit. Admittedly many would call a 3G on the current platform iPhone 2 anyways.

dave

I disagree. By Q3 it will be a full year old. One year in the world of cell phones is a VERY long time.

Very true, I think Apple is under a to of pressure in certain markets to get 3G out.

he current iPhone will be laughably outperformed by the competition by Q4 of this year (in many cases it already is, as we're already discusses here).

Apple's software takes performance out of the equation. As long as they can flesh out the OS and the apps they will keep interest high.

The iPhone has grabbed a lot of Apple fanboys and others looking for the "cool factor." But to move beyond that and hit 10M units (which they are WAY off pace right now based on the Macworld stats) they need to generate buyers from the smartphone market, the younger market, the business market, etc.

Funny but the only things that keeps me off iPhone is the AT&T contract and seeing how the OS evolves. There are certain software features that I need to see in an iPhone before I buy. I still hope that Apples long term vision for Mobile OS and my vision correspond.

All the markets that needs to penetrate with iPhone will be gobbled up by all the other 3G phones and devices soon--and with 2-year contracts.

You must believe that 3G is of more value than Apple software. I don't believe it to be so, Apple would do wonders sales wise if it got its software act together. That means flesh out the OS and respond to consumer demand. The hardware is otherwise fine.

1) There is no way will sell 10M of the current iPhones by the end of the year

Why not I actually thought they where more than on track. At least a third of the way there.

2) If waits until the Holiday season or even Q4 for iPhone 2 they will have missed out on too much of the market...like me.

You are not much of a market and for that matter neither am I. Apple can't deliver what it doesn't have component to build. They need the hardware and frankly it looks like the pickings are rather thin right now.

3) If Jobs really is going to stick to his 10M promise, they'll HAVE to either come out with a new 3G iPhone (with other good additions too in order to generate sufficient buzz) or drop the prices on the current iPhones by $100 NOW and then by another $100 in Q3

If iPhone sales where really hurting I think we would have seen a price drop by now. They haven't which means one of two things; either they are selling well or they are ready to release an update.

--The deal-breaker in all this is that if they release ANOTHER type of iPhone in Q4 along with an update of the current one. A cheaper iPhone Nano or some other sub $200 version would be priced to move a lot of units.

I was very much surprised to find that Apple released nothing "iPhone Nano" wise at MWSF. The most obvious thing in the world, to me anyways, is that Apple needs a PRODUCT LINEUP.

In any event I'm going out on a limb here to say that by the end of March we should see another iPhone model. Might not be 3G, but Apple need to add to the line up. Personally I think we will see a revival of the old Nano form factor for the low end iPhone, mainly because it is longer and can function as a phone held to the head.

Thanks
Dave

 

[dangleheart]

The iPhone has grabbed a lot of Apple fanboys and others looking for the "cool factor." But to move beyond that and hit 10M units (which they are WAY off pace right now based on the Macworld stats) they need to generate buyers from the smartphone market, the younger market, the business market, etc.

That is quite inaccurate. yeah, fanboys who can afford it bought it and others bought it for the cool factor. But there are not 2 to 3 million peole in those two categories.

You are right about the pace of turn over in the cell phone industry but the turn over is not that high in the high end smart phone line up. And Apple delivers new features to the iPhone without releasing a new Rev of the iPhone. Like, for example, with other carriers/manufactureres, if they want to support buying music off wi-fi it would be a new phone model. I am surprised that Apple Marketing is not emphasizing that point. I think it will be a differentiating factor if they just mouth off the 5 or 6 new things they have added in the past 5 months.

Having said all that, I would support a price reduction or a tie in with AT&T for a reduced price model for the high end plans. This is a good time to do this before this price war of the carriers get quite rough. It is all good for us consumers.

 

[t0mat0]

Recap, more thoughts

My main contention is that the delay to getting a 3G iPhone out is the 3G component Wizard. We're seeing equivalent price drops, plan upgrades - these are things being used to actually keep sales up at the moment. Think that 1/4 of all iPhones are unlocked. Extrapolating that level of consumer knowledge, there are even more that would know about 3G and it's benefits and might use that as a criteria to get a (nother) iPhone.

Reasons for Q2 08
Apple will want to get
- Jobs loves suprises.
- Last keynote was mute - it felt/rumored something was pulled last minute. Apple will want a conference platform to announce the 3G iPhone (e.g. WDC in June)
- FCC may take 2 months. If it's by summer, we'll have heard by March
- Extrapolating the RAM updates and price drops. There's a minimum for these models. Beyond that a new model would be expected.
- Balda got a ~7 million unit of touchscreens in Q4 07.
- What else have the hardware folks been working on? They don't do wiggly icon research...
- Random sporadic "I want my 3G iPhone now" posts. No reasoning, logic. Just a simple expectant demand.

Reasons for by Summer 08
- It's been a year.
- Jobs' 10 million target. Not going to do that with EDGE. (Peak times to release before: Back to school and Christmas. I'm sure students would go bezerko if a 3G dropped before term restarts after summer. (Hello loan cheque!))
- The iPhone will be rediculously underspecced in certain areas in 6 months time (e.g. see N96)
- They'll want users to upgrade their contract with a few months to spare, to keep retention high.
- Japan and Portugal launches both require 3G.
- Symbian S60 4th Edition will be out before 3G iPhone otherwise. Apple's lead to market is effectively lost (the gap is hidden in the inferior OS of competitors, but they've put out touch screen 3G phones by Q4 08)
- Early adopters have had enough time to think about ponying up for another iPhone
- If Apple can string together an iPhone in such a short space of time, the refinements, and hardware additions shouldn't be as much of a problem. They're got an easier learning curve now.
- They do 3G early, they can discount/bump for Christmas.

Reasons for 09
iPhone is mid-tier, and Broadcom has announced mid-tier handsets with BCM21551 will release Q1 09, sampling to release takes 18-24 months (Oct 07-> March 09??)

Main 3G chip provider contenders
1) Samsung S3C6410 3Q '08
2) Broadcom BCM21551 (Mid tier Q1 09 so Q2-4 '09 logically if iPhone seen as top tier)
3) Intel (Silverthorne = very quiet atm (did the prototype or Infineon (Infineon's UMTS/USDPA single die already shipped in numbers (Oct 07). Samsung's already got them, Apple's the other logical receiver.
4) Infineon - From Convergedworld's tip via his blog - their update to their baseband chip for the iPhone currently (S-GOLD3 HSDPA) processor will be in volume production 2Q 08.

The Broadcom chip is the nuts. However, Apple might 3G first, then a 3G SoC "with benefits" i.e. get the 3G out of the door, then have the capability to change up once the other chips come to market.

SDK will tell us some more, but the providers are kept unidentified (just the serial number, nonbranded) on current set of chips, so expect more of the same. Bonus If it's Infineon - We might see WiMax??

Best bets
1) FCC Announcement by April for June WDC release
2) FCC Announcement June at WDC. Release Late July.

3G has a lot more value when the marketplace has already had it. Think CD player (3G) as standard, versus non replaceable cassette player with audio in jack (EDGE with wifi).

As an aside - is there an even spread with people on contracts by month, or do some months have more people coming off them? e.g. from starting at christmas, so finishing June...

Playing devil's advocate, if you think that 3G is the only think holding the 3G iPhone back - have a look at this list of features that users have asked for (hardware is shown here, the list is primarily software)

Flash, 802.1n support, GPS, Haptic feedback, 5Mp cam, Voice dialing, Video recording, removable battery, xenon camera flash, A2DP, FM Radio.
https://forums.macrumors.com/posts/5007755/

Side note: Does the US/UK providers have exclusivity to the 3G iPhone?

Knowledge that would help
- Example of the time FCC took to pass a 3G version of a previously EDGE phone version.
- Some information on Infineon
- Estimates or ideas as to what's happening with Silverthorne
(Wizard: Silverthorne chips I thought they were slated for 09, plus they were more medium sized MIDs. Has Intel done 3G before? Wouldn't have thought it's its area of expertise, unless it hooked up with either Infineon or Samsung. Intel does however have a good level of secrecy e.g. MacBook Air's CPU.
- Broadcom eta - is the time from sampling to market that long?
- Portugal and Japan rumoured release dates. A first step would be finding the networks, then any rumoured dates (O2's confirmation came a while before, through their customer support etc).

 

[mark34]

I for one have been waiting for next version of iPhone... just because timing was such that i did not get an iPhone right away, might as well wait at this point. I have the iPod Touch and cant wait for the phone.

My only data point on this battery life issue is my Samsung Blackjack. 3G is fast and I have 3G coverage most of the time... seamlessly kicks over to Edge if necessary. Pretty cool phone, but OMG the battery life is abysmal. Most days I do not make it through the day without switching to the second battery. If Apple is seeing the same in the iPhone then I applaud them for waiting. I usually ignore battery specs because I assume I will have at least well over 1 day and know I will charge every night. But man, with the Blackjack, it is frustrating to die by evening.

 

[natejohnstone@g]

I do think that 3G is more important than software for many people. If looking at 3G phones--i.e. all things being equal--then I think that 's software, form factor, and coolness will entice a lot of people.

As far as being on track for the 10M mark, here is the situation:

As of the end of December, Apple had sold just over 3.7M iPhones. That's great and all, but in order to hit the 10M mark they will have to do BETTER than they have done each quarter, plus have a BETTER holiday season than last year. In June the iPhone will be a year old. When--pray tell--have you seen 1-year-old cell phones sell BETTER than they did the first year? Again, all the early adopters are in, and I'd wager many who had been waiting on price are in as well.

Even if they sold 1.3M this quarter (which would be BETTER than the quarter of the price drop) they'd still need to move 5M units of a 1-year-old handset in 3 Quarters. And remember--all of those units go to AT&T customers or converts (unless the 10M includes Canada and Europe--but it hasn't sold too well there anyway). That's a large number of fish to snag in a small pond UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES.

Look, I like the iPhone and will get one as soon as one exists that meets my needs (works with carriers in Europe and Japan). And I think that selling 10M would be great. But I simply don't see moving that many units of an old device, even with storage and software improvements.

They need a price drop and/or a new product. I agree that coming out with a non-3G Nano at a $199 price point would be a great idea. I'd suggest putting out a 3G iPhone first, however. Grab that market asap, then go for those who don't need 3G or as heavy-duty hardware but want an iPod phone at a cheap price. Basically--a full iPhone product linup.

 

[sjo]

Like, for example, with other carriers/manufactureres, if they want to support buying music off wi-fi it would be a new phone model. I am surprised that Apple Marketing is not emphasizing that point. I think it will be a differentiating factor if they just mouth off the 5 or 6 new things they have added in the past 5 months.

maybe because it's not true? you might familiarize yourself eg with nokia's ovi music etc store.

Having said all that, I would support a price reduction or a tie in with AT&T for a reduced price model for the high end plans. This is a good time to do this before this price war of the carriers get quite rough. It is all good for us consumers.

price reduction is not that straight forward for apple, it'd cannibalize ipod sales.

I was very much surprised to find that Apple released nothing "iPhone Nano" wise at MWSF.

1. it would cannibalize ipod sales.

2. the main sale arguments of iphone are the user interface, itunes integration and, for some, safari. for ipnano, these would reduce into itunes integration, resulting in a) cannibalized ipod sales b) unfavorable comparison to offerings of other manufacturers that have way superior models in other regards.

1) There is no way will sell 10M of the current iPhones by the end of the year

it's actually 10m during 2008.

 

[natejohnstone@g]

it's actually 10m during 2008.

LOL, then there is absolutely no way! 3.7M in '07, and they think they'll sell 10M in 'O8? Twice as much sales time in that window, but with an old model...no way at all unless something changes as I said.

 

[wizard]

I do think that 3G is more important than software for many people. If looking at 3G phones--i.e. all things being equal--then I think that 's software, form factor, and coolness will entice a lot of people.

I would have to say that the people who covet 3G over Apple's software is a very small minority. Sure there are any number of people who realize that for their specific usages it is mandatory, but I believe for a large number of people they have no idea or are happy with WiFI.

As far as being on track for the 10M mark, here is the situation:

As of the end of December, Apple had sold just over 3.7M iPhones. That's great and all, but in order to hit the 10M mark they will have to do BETTER than they have done each quarter, plus have a BETTER holiday season than last year.

Well the factors at work right now, that have an impact on Apples sales, are not going to be impacted by 3G. If the economy is in the dumpster then sales of luxuries will be down. People at the higher end of he economic ladder will not be impacted but then again buying a phone for them doesn't involve financial risk or strain.

In June the iPhone will be a year old. When--pray tell--have you seen 1-year-old cell phones sell BETTER than they did the first year? Again, all the early adopters are in, and I'd wager many who had been waiting on price are in as well.

I believe the smart phone market is different enough that people don't see them as disposable. In any event with each new software release Apple's phones have gotten newer. Apple may not be good at getting this word out but it is a fact and many consumers do recognize the new features.

Even if they sold 1.3M this quarter (which would be BETTER than the quarter of the price drop) they'd still need to move 5M units of a 1-year-old handset in 3 Quarters.

I don't see hwy they couldn't do even better than 1.3M this quarter.

And remember--all of those units go to AT&T customers or converts (unless the 10M includes Canada and Europe--but it hasn't sold too well there anyway). That's a large number of fish to snag in a small pond UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES.

While Apples single carrier deal is probably one of the most stupid things they have done in years it isn't effectively impacting sales. In a world where all carriers could reasonably be considered bad actors, going with one that has the phone you want isn't any more of a problem than staying with the current carrier.

Look, I like the iPhone and will get one as soon as one exists that meets my needs (works with carriers in Europe and Japan). And I think that selling 10M would be great. But I simply don't see moving that many units of an old device, even with storage and software improvements.

Funny but the reason I don't have a iPhone, or Touch for that matter, is very much an issue of software. 3G just isn't going to mean a lot to me. Sure it is a bit faster than EDGE but frankly isn't going to edge out WiFI anytime soon for large file transfers. Considering that some software doesn't work over EDGE and likely won't work over 3G I don't see a big draw for me. Like wise I don't think the whole community is going to fall for the idea that 3G is the best thing since sliced bread.

They need a price drop and/or a new product. I agree that coming out with a non-3G Nano at a $199 price point would be a great idea. I'd suggest putting out a 3G iPhone first, however. Grab that market asap, then go for those who don't need 3G or as heavy-duty hardware but want an iPod phone at a cheap price. Basically--a full iPhone product linup.

The price drop is key. The combination of the high price of the iPhone and the corresponding AT&T contact are a big disincentive. To be perfectly honest though I would have preferred that Apple kept the priced and unlocked the phone. That is sell it as a device that can be used anywhere. In a nut shell the iphone isn't that bad of a deal if you are free to go with the network of your choice, otherwise it needs to become a lot cheaper.

Apple needs to release hardware as soon as it is technically possible with in the engineering goals for the device. Due to that I don't want them to release a 3G phone with a 2 hour battery time. Same thing with the Nano phone, do it when all the technology comes together but not sooner. That is like stating the obvious but there are examples of rushed products that are hardly usable due to battery constraints or other issues.

In any event we are very much on agreement with respect to the need for a full product line up. As stated before I'm surprised that Apple did not flesh out the phone line up at MWSF, nor any of the recent trade shows. It actually casts a bad light upon Apple as a corporation that is able to play successfully in this market.

Dave

 

[wizard]

price reduction is not that straight forward for apple, it'd cannibalize ipod sales.

YOu loose ten points right off the bat for using that word.

1. it would cannibalize ipod sales.

Apple has absolutely no choice in the matter. If they don't do it somebody else will and then they end up with no sales. Markets change and companies have to learn to respond. One issue there is that people don't want to carry around a huge bag of various electronic devices. The company that can get a very low cost cell phone and MP3 player out onto the market will have an advantage. In Apple's case it is actually a bigger advantage for them as it ties into the popularity of iTMS.

Since we already have companies building such devices I honestly believe Apple is effectively behind the eight ball so to speak. Apple needs to respond or have a lot of customers end leaving iTunes.

2. the main sale arguments of iphone are the user interface, itunes integration and, for some, safari. for ipnano, these would reduce into itunes integration, resulting in a) cannibalized ipod sales b) unfavorable comparison to offerings of other manufacturers that have way superior models in other regards.

What are you trying to say that Apple can't make a superior product?

Look I fully understand that integration reduces to iTunes. In a sense though that is the whole point an iPod with a Cell Phone. It is not a device to take away sales from other Apple products but rather a device to protect Apple from a reduction in sales due to offerings from other manufactures. All Apple really needs is a device with the equivalent storage of a NANO with cell connectivity. That is it, we are not talking a power house of communications here. At best you would be adding $25 to $35 dollars to the user cost of the device. That I believe people would pay for.

it's actually 10m during 2008.

Funny I thought it was by the end of 2008. Doesn't really matter as i looks like things just are not swinging Apples way.

In any event look for them to become really aggressive with respect to sales in the next month or two. Frankly they have to succeed here as the whole iPod business is at risk if they can't get the hardware out that consumers want. With the advent of DRM free download sights and better cell phones/MP3 players from other actors, Apple needs viable products. Products it doesn't currently have.

I look at it this way the iPhone is a nice product for what it is but it however isn't the product that a lot of people are interested in for carry as a cell phone / MP3 player. Deal with that and Apple might stay in the business.

Dave

 

[t0mat0]

1. it would cannibalize ipod sales.

it's actually 10m during 2008.

I've heard analysts say this. It's a bit of a cop out though. Oh noes! We can't bring out any new products similar to our other ranges? Why? Because people would buy them instead of the other ranges...
"And another thing" - An iPhone IS A iPod. Jobs is on record as saying it's Apple's BEST iPod to date. If someone doesn't buy a iPod classic, but buys a iPhone, Apple rubs its hands in glee: There's a healthy profit margin from the phone (which may well be more than other iPod ranges) and then there's profit from the carrier if the person gets a year or so's contract.

The best thing they can do is add value here. Why is Garmin doing the Nuvi? Because you can bet your ass it's market is going to be encroached upon by the mobile market. heck, it's outrageous that it hasn't already been opened up through the iPhone. (e.g. have a iPhone dock in the car, pop it horizontal, and that software upgrade to voice dialling suddenly becomes voice activated zip/post code from to instructions, and google/other pops a nice map interface on). If Apple don't do it due to not wanting to step on shoes, someone else sure will (Why hasn't Apple added slingbox like features? Probably due to keeping relations with the movie companies to an extent).

Why hasn't iPhone/ phones in general encroached more on
- the portable movie player market? Screen size for one.
- the GPS Sat Nav In car Navigator? GPS receiver size battery life and software integration
- Wireless music sharing, sports GPS products....

The "in, during, up to 2008 etc" debate is a bit of a murky one. I'd go with the easier figure being reached, because Jobs can always claim he meant the larger figure if it's reached.

 

[natejohnstone@g]

Okay, I'll buy the idea that there are not actually 5 million people waiting just for iPhone to get 3G. But the 3G issue is bigger than the tech itself.

iPhone was billed as "the best phone ever." Whether or not that's fair, that's what people think it should be. Now to some, it already is that. So be it. But as soon as the iPhone was announced, you heard people screaming about "No 3G? Piece of crap with a nice screen." Is that fair? Of course not. Do most people really care or even know if they need it? I doubt it. My current area doesn't even have 3G!

But when people are looking at a premium priced item, they want it to be the best. If they are expected to suffer through 2 years of AT&T plus shell out a ton of cash for this thing, then the IDEA that the hardware isn't even as good as the competition is a roadblock for people.

When buying a newly updated MBP, people know that they are getting pretty much the top of the line hardware plus the Apple OS, etc. They are willing to pay more because of that. But the idea is out there with the iPhone that it's a fancy iPod that you can make calls on. The iPhone is MUCH more than that, but for those on the fence the idea of the current model not being "future-proof" scares them off. I"m not saying this is logical (obviously there is no such thing as future-proof), but this is the case with many that I've talked to and much of what I've read on forums. They want to be able to justify their expense and 2-year contract by saying that this is the most advanced phone on the market.

And don't say that this doesn't matter because the iPhone is geared towards the "wealthy" market, because those are the professionals who may actually need 3G to begin with, or need other PDA-type software items that iPhone does not currently offer (a Word document reader/writer, for example).

But I agree with everyone that needs to do a much better job of publicizing it's software updates/programs.

 

[dangleheart]

Companies spend tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars for this kind of strategy sessions.. Apple is getting this all for free..

 

[sjo]

YOu loose ten points right off the bat for using that word.

huh? that's what the phenomenon is called...

Apple has absolutely no choice in the matter. If they don't do it somebody else will and then they end up with no sales. Markets change and companies have to learn to respond. One issue there is that people don't want to carry around a huge bag of various electronic devices. The company that can get a very low cost cell phone and MP3 player out onto the market will have an advantage. In Apple's case it is actually a bigger advantage for them as it ties into the popularity of iTMS.

you (and the guy replying after you) read more into what i wrote than what i meant. apple absolutely needs to replace most of the ipod line with phone enabled version. no disagreement there. the question is in timing.

ipod sales have more or less reached their peak, apple will milk those sales as long as they can, and only introduce phone enabled models when they need to.

what's the time span for the replacement? mwsf was way too early to introduce an ipnano. i'd take a cue from the lenght of their att exclusive deal and say that they're planning to replace the ipod line with phone enabled devices during about 4 years, model at a time.

What are you trying to say that Apple can't make a superior product?

actually i'm not saying that. i'm saying that if you take the large screen and safari out of iphone, there's really not that many reasons for consumers to buy the device...

thus they need to find something new, i'm sure they will, but apple's development resources are pretty stretched as it is, and it takes time to expand those, so again i think ipnano this year is way too early. in next couple of years, sure.

Funny I thought it was by the end of 2008. Doesn't really matter as i looks like things just are not swinging Apples way.

steve wasn't very clear during the introduction. apple's cfo peter oppenheimer clarified the issue during the earnings conference call of f3q07 (you can google to find the transcript). he stated that apple's target is to reach about 1% market share of global cell phone unit sales during 2008, a year ago about 1b cell phones a year were sold, thus 10m. on the other hand going by the 1% would require 13-14m iphones to be sold in 2008.

 

[natejohnstone@g]

Companies spend tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars for this kind of strategy sessions.. Apple is getting this all for free..

Seriously! As compensation we should all get...free iPhone2s

 

[t0mat0]

I'll fill this post in later, but some things to add

- GPS modules by gomite, Global Locate and a Broadcomm connection, A-GPS
- Interdigital's deal - details (was the At and t only 1st phone exclusive?)
- Infineon's chipset
- Partfoundry - have they got the SDK bug like gomite?
- 3G Touchscreen RIM Crackberries?
AT&T's 3G expansion rate and coverage
- Innolux - shipping touch screens fo 2Q for summer release? (As opposed to Wintek,

 

[wizard]

huh? that's what the phenomenon is called...

Nope. Not in this case where Apple had to introduce product to protect its share of MP3 players. Apple introduced the iPhone not because they wanted to be in the cell phone business but because they didn't want to loose their iPod business to more capable cell phones.

Frankly it is the same thing for Garmin and their announced cell Phone. I don't think Garmin would really want to be producing cell phones if it could be avoided. The problem is they can't ignore the continued advancements in the cell phone and GPS industries. Garmin either had to enter the market or loose a significnat amount of business to the cell phone manufactures.

Garmin and Apple are in the cell phone business for the same reasons. Different product yes but ignoring the technology would leave both companies shells of their former selves otherwise. So in Apples case they need iPhone, IPhone Nano, and IPhone 2 to maintain a competitive position and avoid loss sales to other manufactures.

When it comes right down to it, I can make a good argument that Apple is already loosing sales due to lack of a divers product line up. So frankly they need to get cracking.

you (and the guy replying after you) read more into what i wrote than what i meant. apple absolutely needs to replace most of the ipod line with phone enabled version. no disagreement there. the question is in timing.

As you may have gathered from my reply above I believe they are already running late. They have started to respond some with the shuffle price cuts which I believe are making way for adjustments in the rest of the line up. Except for the memory bump this is not new hardware so they still are behind the eight ball.

ipod sales have more or less reached their peak, apple will milk those sales as long as they can, and only introduce phone enabled models when they need to.

One would have to be pretty blind not to see that they need to respond to the competition right now.

what's the time span for the replacement? mwsf was way too early to introduce an ipnano. i'd take a cue from the lenght of their att exclusive deal and say that they're planning to replace the ipod line with phone enabled devices during about 4 years, model at a time.

No not at all Apple needs to release viable cell enabled products at least every four months until the product line is fleshed out and they have reasonably competitive models for every price segment. Apple should have 3 distinct models of cell phones available by now.

The fact that they don't should worry any stock holder of the company.

actually i'm not saying that. i'm saying that if you take the large screen and safari out of iphone, there's really not that many reasons for consumers to buy the device...

For some iTunes would be fine. In any event isn't the wide screen and Safari the whole point of Apples smart phone? Such apps show case the units power and technology.

Which is all well and good but that doesn't mean that Apple can do without 'dumber" phones. The need these simply to protect the whole iPod business.

thus they need to find something new, i'm sure they will, but apple's development resources are pretty stretched as it is, and it takes time to expand those, so again i think ipnano this year is way too early. in next couple of years, sure.

This just blows my mind this idea that Apple is stretched thin. We are talking about a company with huge cash reserves and a reputation that attracts the best. If they wanted to be successful or expand the business they could do so easily.

.

Yeah but those are projections from another year and another economy. Things have changed rapidly. The cell phone industry will be lucky to get out of 2008 without any contraction of the market.

Dave

 

[natejohnstone@g]

So, basically ditto to the wizard, lol.

The electronics market is changing faster than it has in years past, and the cell phone market has always had a much faster "refresh rate" yet.

We all expect Apple to release a new line this fall with potentially modified prices, because that's what they always do. But guess what--the competition knows that too and plans accordingly. Apple started to lose HUGE marketshare / potential marketshare to MP3 cell phones. That's why the iPhone was born.

No longer can people say " will release another version of the iPod next year because that's what they always do." If cannot adapt, they don't deserve to continue reaping the huge profits that they did last year. If for one think they are smarter than that. They realize that things are changing, and that they need to adapt.

I also think that the "unusual" Shuffle repricing is the beginning of a complete iPod line price adjustment. I don't personally remember seeing this before accept right before the Zune was released.

The iPhone is a hit, obviously, but it has not yet done what needs it to do, and by that I mean the iPhone product line, not the current iteration. For to continue dominating the world of digital music, they need to carve out a huge niche in the MP3 cell phone market. They have a tiny share now.

iPod + cell phone = AWESOME

Let's face it, most MP3 phones were trying to beat to the punch. They capitalized on the major market demand for MP3 players and added them to devices that people already needed and used all the time. It's a perfect match (you've always got your phone with you!) and people have responded to MP3 phones in a big way.

The current iPhone is TOO MUCH for most for most people, or rather, more than they need. needs to release an iPhone version that is simply iPod + cell phone. If they can release these 4GB and 8GB iPhone Nanos at a low enough price, they will make a freaking killing. I have always thought that such a device would far and away outsell the uber-phone concept.

I totally disagree that these phones would "canabalize" iPod sales. Worst case scenario, someone buys one of these instead of an iPod-- has lost nothing. I don't know if research has been done on this, but I'll bet you that most people who have MP3 phones still have a dedicated MP3 player anyway, so I don't think will really loose anything, they'll simply grab a new market.

But the idea that this new phone you're considering COULD replace your iPod would be a compelling factor to most people. That's why the idea of the iPhone was so exciting. It's not that iPhone failed to deliver, it's that it delivered (and subsequently cost) far more than many knew what to do with.

I'm not saying that ditch the uber-phone concept--far from it. But they need to augment the line with a cheap and simply iPod + cell phone device. The sooner the better.

 

[t0mat0]

Another long post

Why 3G matters to some
- Those who use it know it's advantages. Think using something ubiquitous, using broadband, and going back to 56k modem; having a mobile, then having to use only landlines. If you're naive to the next gen tech, you don't mind. The Fon movement, WiMax movement might sort 3G non-availability in the medium term.


Known unknowns
The contract exclusivity - Is it only to the current iPhone and 3G iPhone isn't covered?

Convergence and where everyone's going
SatNav e.g. Garmin - Ahead on Mapping (Sea, Air, Land)
Computer e.g. Apple - Ahead on OS, mp3, styling
Graphics e.g. NVidia - Ahead on graphics
Cellphone e.g. Nokia - Ahead on # of functions in 1 phone, "3G&GPSness"

Those in the cellphone market are busting out, those out are busting in, converging into a smorgasboard of Swiss Army knife smart phones.

Apple's OS on the iPhone. A rushed port, of a behind schedule OS. And it's 9-12 months ahead (bear in mind US mobile tech is a 12 months behind Europe (which is behind Korea/Japan etc).
Competitors will cut corners to get a competeting device out (N96, touchscreen S60 4th Edn, Experia, Nuvi).


Future
NVidia: depth perception/similar control of a dveice that does 720p HDTV direct from a handset! NVIDIA spokesman Oscar Clark "What this shows is the iPhone didn't go far enough. Nokia's UK MD: Nokia is becoming: ""a Web 2.0 company, and no longer just a device company" Vids at mobilementalism.com).
Apple: The iTablet/MacBook Air v2 comes out with an inbuilt projector. We all go paroxycismic.


Apple iPhone lineup
Non 3G phone, nano v1 iPhone, 3G iPhone aka iPhonetastic

Apple is Apple. The lineup will not cater for all, but cater to the high end. (Case in point - midsized mac tower anyone?) and slightly slow/late in updating. They make money from not updating too soon.

Different uses have different optimal form factors, put simply. The nano iPod could be longer and sport GPS. There will still be a demand for non-phone mp3 players - e.g. nano iPod shape is non-phone compatible and is one of the most useful shapes for sports. And now it's square, it could also work with a GPS map loaded bolt on (Nike+Extreme; MotionBased/other rival? I dream)

The market in the US UK might be getting saturated by current generations of phone, but don't forget there are other markets - China etc that is crying out for iPhones (400,000 and counting unlocked ones). But, Apple can't do too much all over. Apple's resources could be outstretched btw - if you look at the size of the company and it's employee number, they're doing more for less people. Apple might not want too many things that forces them to expand that much. If you don't think overstretching is possible, why was the OS Leopard release late? Engineers moved to help out on the iPhone.

Apple can sell the new 3G iPhone not so much as a iPod replacement, but as the PC/internet in your pocket. By having all the options, people can find a compelling factor within the iPhone (it's got a few!

Going back to the original thread -
Info on timings of the 3G iPhone (and its features):

Windows & Apple, Nokia, Nintendo are all going to possibly hit multiple user interface capability in their next big OS releases.

GPS
Nokia: Sept 06 the Nokia N95 came out with GPS, then got a A-GPS bump in Oct 07 (and ate up Navteq mapping company and gate5's Smart2go research). It's catch? You get worldwide street level info that you can pull from the cellnet/net, and or keep on your expansion card, but you pay for navigation. Expect A-GPS in more thinner models from Nokia.
RIM: 3G Touchscreen RIM GPS enabled Crackberry 9000
Google/Android:Google's android platform designed to tightly work with a GPS receiver. Unreleased.
Sony: Sony Ericsson XPERIA X1
Apple:
- Gomite will be doing click in GPS modules as soon as the SDK comes out.
- Broadcom ate up Global Locate, so Broadcom has a chip to do A-GPS. Global locate worked with Infineon in 2007 to make the smallest GPS receiver... And Apple was apparently in talks with Global Locate. So it looks like Assisted GPS (Single chip A-GPS Solution BCM4750)
- Partfoundry - have they got the SDK bug like gomite? They were another GPS first player
So GPS add ons are being held back till SDK release (in gomite's words: "we won't know for sure what we can and can't do until Apple releases their Software Developers Kit (SDK) in February.")

Intel, Silverthorne, Apple

Silverthorne is part of Intel’s “Menlow” Mobile Internet Device MID platform. It is aimed more for the intersection of cellphone and laptop (ultraportables/ ultraslims/tablets/things with miniprojectors/Flashbook/touchNewton...). Rumors are of "multiple products" with it in 2008. Consuming currently 0.5-2W of power, versus iPhone's ~0.280 Watts. However if you look at the prototype, its iPhone thin, just double length (For reference, a Core2Duo notebook processor draw 35W).

So Moorestown possibly in 2009 for the iPhone. Big fat no for Silverthorne for the iPhone in 2008. Interestingly, Intel shows intention to move into the Wifi, 3G, WiMax areas - in Sept 07 they announced plans to offer UMPC builders the option to build this into their Menlow-based chip packages, such as Silverthorne.

Moorestown? CPU, graphics, video and memory controller all on a single piece of silicon, on a chip that will increase battery life an order of magnitude by reducing idle power by 10x compared to Menlow," (Chandrasekher). Samsung has a year to keep busy!

2Q 08 timing: http://www.electronista/ EDN rumors -
Innolux begin shipping touchscreens to Apple in 2Q for a summer launch.
- iPhone and iTouch drop in production.
- Interdigital's deal - details (was the At and t only 1st phone exclusive?)
- Infineon's chipset
- AT&T's 3G expansion rate and coverage
- Innolux - shipping touch screens for 2Q so that's a summer release? (As opposed to Wintek)
- The Spanish launch about a Q2 launch is all based on one source - Sevenclick who claims to have spoken to someone in Telefonica (Spanish carrier).
- If the iPhone can't currently support streaming radio then that's indicative of a 3G feature, though from the front page today, it was a website, that is usable by current iPhones.
- If i've got this right (i may need to check) InterDigital, has penned a 7 year licensing deal with Apple. This may well cover 3G technologies. iPhone uses SGOLD2-8876, which can only do EDGE, though it's platform MP-EU supports UMTS (3G WCDMA FDD).
Total cost of MP-EU & the 2 IFX chips in iPhone? $16.

http://wirelessanalyst.blogspot.com/2007/09/iphone-v1-and-infineon.html