3G iPhones and the FCC Myth

[solipsism]

I hope that a 3G iPhone isn't announced or released until the fall, just to see the meltdown on this site from all the people that "know" a new iPhone is coming in June.

In one regard, it makes since for Apple to release v2.0 in June and then release a 3G iPhone a few months later to maximize profits of the 2.5G iPhone.

On the other hand, despite the overwhelming success of the iPhone in the US there are still many people who have been waiting for a 3G version, and we know that every partnered country will most likely explode once a 3G version is available.

Plus, Apple needs to beat its self-determined estimates if it wants its stock prices to go up. I just hope that Apple can cut the carrier attachment and offer the phone worldwide, albeit at a higher retail price.

 

[itcheroni]

That isn't exactly what he said. He said he wanted to announce the iPhone before the FCC did it for them. But we now know the process took only 9 weeks from submission to approval and that it wasn't submitted for almost two months past the MacWorld announcement. The probable reason for a 6 month heads up from the world's most secretive consumer tech company is to give people a chance to wait out their contracts and to make them think twice about renewing.

Check out the keynote. When he says the iPhone won't be out till June, the crowd began to react negatively. Jobs then responded that they needed that time for approval.

 

[solipsism]

It does? It shows the last update to the Mini and the iMac happening in 8/2007 (9 months ago) and the one prior happening 9/2006, almost a year before. There was a time when updates/spec tweaks, major revisions or price drops occurred roughly every 4-6 months or so. In the last couple years, Apple has started stretching that to close to a year which, as far as I'm concerned, sucks.

You didn't say you wish them to be every 6 months apart, you said that once a year sucks.
244 days != 365 days
3 seasons != 4 seasons
9 moons ago != 12 moons ago

 

[Rocketman]

I have regulatory experience.

I suspect the "first article" had to have a lead time. Since regulatory compliance is an industry-government co-op, secondary, or follow on products typically have less scrutiny.

Rocketman

 

[flitter]

Surely the answer is obvious ...

• Telstra (in Australia) has the large 3.5g network in the world
• Sydney's Apple Store is to open in the next few weeks
• The store is opposite Telstra's new flagship store (and main Sydney office) (which only opened a few months back)
• No FCC approval is required to operate the phones in Australia (different approval body down here)

My guess ... the3G iPhone launch will be the big draw to the first Apple Store down under!

 

[hotsauce3868]

Thanks Arn for this post! Maybe those who are "informed" will feel a little sheepish now. Can't tell you how sick and tired I am of having to read about people saying "The FCC needs six months. We will see it on the FCC's website before Apple...bla bla bla" Thanks again and keep up the good work. I LOVE MacRumors!!!

 

[skwoytek]

Also note that the testing for the iPhone was done on February 6, 2007. Below is my analysis regarding the iPhone/FCC Myth which I posted a few days ago.

You have to remember that the FCC doesn't test the phone, the tests are performed by authorized test firms. As an example, the iPhone tests were done by CETECOM. At this point, nothing public was filed or revealed and Apple knew that the device passed FCC requirements.

A brief timeline: The iPhone tests were conducted by CETECOM on February 6, 2007. The first letter from Apple to the FCC was dated March 8, 2007. The FCC publicly posted the iPhone information on May 17th.

Quite a bit can happen and the public never know...

What follows are my thoughts on the subject.

Apple has already announced the iPhone. The iPhone secrecy was maintained and the introduction fanfare has passed. The main focus now is not losing sales momentum by pre-announcing.

Also, many believe that the main reasons for revealing the iPhone months in advance were for marketing and to allow people to hold off on new phone purchases and extending contracts for six months. I know I did. The number of people with contracts ending in those six months was approximately one-quarter of U.S. cell phone owners. By the holidays, one-half of all contracts had ended. Apple won't have had the opportunity to influence all out-of-contract cell phone owners until January of 2009.

My prediction:

Steve will introduce the new iPhone at the WWDC keynote on June 9th 2008. Based on the overwhelming number of SDK downloads, the iPhone will be a huge part of WWDC this year and will be the focus of the keynote. Apple will invite members of the media to the keynote, they've always been welcome to attend. Expect this media invitation around May when Apple confirms that Steve Jobs will be giving the WWDC keynote.

Why would Apple announce a new iPhone at WWDC? Well, why would Apple keep the home screen of Apple.com as the iPhone Software Roadmap for the last 30 days? I mean, how many people does the SDK really apply to? The official release of the SDK at WWDC will be a huge deal for Apple, along with a new iPhone and some unannounced features/applications. So far all we've seen in 2.0 are the key changes for enterprise. Applications don't need to be in the beta firmware.

Steve will announce that the new iPhone and the firmware will be available June 27th.

 

[spacecadet610]

interesting. nice to know how it works

 

[SandynJosh]

I've been involved in getting products tested for FCC compliance. The testing is not done by the FCC, only the certification that the products comply is done by the FCC who read the test data supplied by the manufacturer and certify that the test data shows the product complies.

So, any delay is due to problems getting the right data during in-house testing, the assembly of the data into a format required for certification, and finally the paper shuffling by the FCC before giving the data its blessing.

If the products are flowing off the Chinese production lines then the testing and documentation is complete but just not submitted to the FCC. I don't remember how much time the FCC suggests to allow for certification, however I do know, as someone on this forum pointed out, the initial certification is usually a longer process.

The other thing is whether the revised iPhone would even require a recertification. I know that many revisions of a product are possible without needing to recertify. Possibly the main cause for recertification would be a major change in the enclosure, not the circuitry. Principally it is the unwanted emmisions of stray signals that the FCC is concerned about.

 

[twoodcc]

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU like Mac OS X; en) AppleWebKit/420.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/3.0 Mobile/4A102 Safari/419.3)

wow. I sure hope it ships before late July

 

[bacaramac]

I don't see Apple sticking with both models (edge/3g). Just like other updates, this is a product revision and not a supplemental addition to the iPhone line up. It's not like MacBook and MacBookPro, it's just iPhone. The price will likely stay the same, but now you get 3G, etc, just like the Airport Express now has Wireless-N, but costs the same.

 

[solipsism]

I don't see Apple sticking with both models (edge/3g). Just like other updates, this is a product revision and not a supplemental addition to the iPhone line up. It's not like MacBook and MacBookPro, it's just iPhone. The price will likely stay the same, but now you get 3G, etc, just like the Airport Express now has Wireless-N, but costs the same.

I see both models still being sold. Either the 2.5 version will be discounted (though not less than the iPod Touch with the same capacity) or they will keep it at the same pricepoint but make it factory unlocked. I'm guessing it'll be the former, but we'll see. While I know many people who are waiting for a 3G version, I know just as many people who are aware of the lackluster support of 3G networks in the US and would be very happy with a cheaper iPhone running EDGE and WiFi.

 

[Full of Win]

How dare you challenge conventional thinking on the internet with 'facts' and 'previous history'.

 

[Aussie John]

The Chinese factories could be sitting on pre-made 3G iPhones waiting for the FCC ID info for the laser etching with shipments starting within a week of the approval. Apple could start pre-orders the same day that the FCC releases the approval. Certainly a lot of things would have to fall into place and Apple would have to be confident of the product they submitted, but if they use as many off-the-shelf parts as for the 2.5G iPhone (primarily with the 3G radio) then it's not a hard thing to accomplish.

Seems highly unlikely full production would start without approval. Maybe ramping up has occurred and they are ready to start churning out as soon as approval has been granted.

This is not to say approval may have already been granted.

 

[patsfan83]

Well, this really isn't that big of a deal, since it is almost universally expected that we will see the next iPhone in June. But FCC indication would be nice



I doubt that Apple will announce the phone before it is released, because then there will be an entire month (or however much time is between announcement and launch) of nearly zero iPhone sales, since everyone will be waiting for the new one.

not necessarily- they could lower the 2.5g to 249/299 and have the latest and greatest 3G with 16/32gb @399

 

[dmelgar]

This doesn't say anything new. I assume most folks understand that Apple can announce a future product at any time, but they can't announce and ship it without it being public through the FCC first.

So far the rumors for iPhone 3G availability have varied from this week to end of July (ie early August). August seems too late to reach the 10mil goal for this year.

Another possibility I've heard which sounded reasonable, is to announce the iPhone 3G at WWDC and make it available immediately in Europe and Asia. Then ship it in the US 6 weeks later.

 

[SirOmega]

Apple will not announce this phone before it is available. They will announce it and it will be available the next day. Here's why:
1) Walt Mossberg's statement
2) If they need to apply to the FCC (might not be necessary because pre-approved 3G chips exist), they'll do it 6 weeks before WWDC, simple, easy way to make sure it stays quiet on the FCC's end. So by the time it's released by the FCC, it'll be announced and available the next day.
3) So they sell as many iPhones as possible. They want to keep selling 2.5G iPhones until the day before they officially announce the 3G phone. (This wasn't necessary for the first iPhone because there was no previous iPhone.)

Apple can easily keep the info quiet on the FCC's end. I'm sure they're pissed about Walt's comment but what's done is done. In my opinion they don't want people knowing an exact date due to extremely decreased iPhone sales leading up to the 3G version.

While I think #2 is a poorly thought out point WRT needing approval (EVERY device needs FCC approval), I generally agree.

My additional insight is that I also expect a very short period (2-3 weeks at most) between announcement and retail availability. I don't think it will be immediate because of the logistics (word would get out), but I could see the WWDC keynote happen early in the week and then planes take off from China that day with pallets full of iPhones to various drop points in the US (LA, Seattle, Denver, Dallas, Chicago, NYC and Atlanta), for delivery to stores on Friday morning.

As for prices, well, I'm guessing we'll see a 16GB EDGE iPhone for $399 and a 16GB 3G iPhone for $499. I'd like to be wrong (and the devices be cheaper) but they'll still sell like hotcakes at those prices. Maybe post-Christmas we see the prices drop $100.

 

[SpinThis!]

we'll see a 16GB EDGE iPhone for $399 and a 16GB 3G iPhone for $499. I'd like to be wrong (and the devices be cheaper) but they'll still sell like hotcakes at those prices. Maybe post-Christmas we see the prices drop $100.

I would expect the same pricing structure as last year's launch. $499 for 16GB iPhone / $599 for 32 GB. I can't see Apple even selling the previous generation edge version if they're having stock problems at this point...

I'm glad other people are busting this "FCC approval takes 6 months" myth. The big reason why it took that long to ship was Apple was barely finished writing the iPhone software.

 

[benlee]

I agree with those who are saying there won't be two versions of the iPhone. That is not Apple's style. They want to keep things simple. And having, for example, a 2.5G 16 gig, a 3G 16 gig and 3G 32 gig is two much to differentiate. They want just an iPhone and they will treat it as an update not a new product.

Also, I see Apple making it available when they announce it or very very soon after. The reason for this is that they don't want any break in iPhone sales.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[Cappy]

I agree with those who are saying there won't be two versions of the iPhone. That is not Apple's style. They want to keep things simple. And having, for example, a 2.5G 16 gig, a 3G 16 gig and 3G 32 gig is two much to differentiate. They want just an iPhone and they will treat it as an update not a new product.

An yet you choose to neglect the various models of ipods that Apple offers? Some have hd's. Some have screens. Some play games. Some can be used with Nike shoes for exercising. Need I go on? Look at all of the folks who have been confused about what ipods play which games.

To say Apple wants to keep things simple is choosing to neglect their most popular line of products that have put them back on the map over the last 6 or so years.

As for the iphone there are two big things that I don't see people talking about. AT&T 3G coverage and pricing. Those two things are likely to have made a pretty big impact on how Apple chose to design and market their iphone line when the 3G version gets here.

 

[SpinThis!]

To say Apple wants to keep things simple is choosing to neglect their most popular line of products that have put them back on the map over the last 6 or so years.

iPods also don't require a 2 year commitment of $60/month service. Last I checked, Apple is marketing this device differently than your traditional iPod.

As for the iphone there are two big things that I don't see people talking about. AT&T 3G coverage and pricing.

Pretty much because it's a non-issue. If you have a 3G phone and you have a data package, and are able to access a 3G network, you get the speed. Otherwise you fall back to edge. If you have an iPhone plan, and a 3G iPhone and live in a 3G network, what else is there to consider?

 

[beatledud]

Hrm...

I can understand both arguments, but there doesn't appear to be a definitive pattern. Hence, does the FCC announce the same day or a few weeks later or when the product is unveiled? Are there rules anywhere or should Apple just always submit when the FCC's workload is stressed and it will take them longer to process?

I would side with the companies even though I'm standardly anti-corporation. It's only fair that people have the ability to have some sort of upper hand in releasing their products. A government agency undermining that seems unnecessary. I don't understand the anti-rationale to the FCC approving something then releasing it at the appropriate time assuming said companying isn't trying to exploit the process.

Nonetheless, one would think the 3G iphone is a simple upgrade over the current model, as far as FCC regulation is concerned. 3G transfer isn't a revolutionary idea, and the Iphone's general RF interference can't change that much. This doesn't set aside the fact that Apple has not made any efforts to kill the July iPhone v.3G rumors. Sales could be much higher if they did assuming they were anticipating a November, not July, release date of the model. Marketing wise, even if people thought it was a lie, you think they would have swaded the rumor boat a bit, right?

 

[baslotto]

After all these years I have come to understand Apple announcement policy pretty well:

If they announce something a month before the release it means it's gonna be costing a fortune and it will have to be super cool. So to keep selling the old product until the new one comes out.

If the announcement is about something that comes out immediately it's usually a minor change that doesn't really affect the other products sale. (i.e. a different color, 3G and nothing more, with a lower battery life knowing that 3G network is almost zero in the US).

I'm more convinced that by the end of the summer I'll decide to buy the iPhone 1 for $50 less then today.

We'll see...

 

[bretm]

there is a difference. this is a second generation iphone. I think current version will see some form of price cuts to pursuade some consumers to think about getting the current version even if 3G iPhone were to be released in March (which I think will see some price premium....about $499).

if Apple does not apply for FCC approval until the day of announcement, I would expect something like this:

3G iPhone $499 (32GB, GPS, some different form factor to distinguish from EDGE iPhone)

EDGE iPhone $399 (16GB, software 2.0, no GPS)
EDGE iPhone $299 (8GB, software 2.0, no GPS)

Nah. I think edge is gone. I mean, there are super cheapo phones out there with edge. There is no reason to charge a premium for the 3g phone. It's just that they finally got the tech to put 3G in there. It would actually make Apple look bad if they sold both the edge and the 3g. First the edge would undercut the 3G sales. Second, it would really look dumb if one was a hundred bucks or more extra just for 3G when there are cheapo phones from other manufacturers that have 3g. There would have to be something bigger and better in the 3g phone as well, like GPS. But GPS also comes in cheap phones, so that's not a huge draw. Plus I think Apple has painted themselves in a corner by saying that the iPhone is great because it's updateable by software, and yet, let's be realistic, there really haven't been any significant software updates. No copy and paste even. So I think for awhile the 3G may have GPS, but that's the only extra addition. The 2.0 os will be the same on both otherwise, and no edge model will be for sale.

 

[SirOmega]

I would expect the same pricing structure as last year's launch. $499 for 16GB iPhone / $599 for 32 GB. I can't see Apple even selling the previous generation edge version if they're having stock problems at this point...

If Apple does that, people will balk at the price because of the big hoopla after last year's $200 price cut. They remember all those folks who bought at $600 and then the price cut. They'll wait for a price cut (whether one happens or not). Apple cant have a $600 phone. Even if they frame it as the "iPhone Pro" or some such. $499 is the upper limit.

I figure Apple doesn't like to have only one version of a product - they leave too much money on the table from the rich folks who just go in there and by the most expensive thing. So we'll see more than just a 16GB phone.

I dont see the phones becoming more affordable, Apple could have chosen last year to continue selling the 4GB phone at $300 but didn't (their margins on that phone were slightly smaller, but considering the price of flash, it would still have been viable). But for some reason, Apple didn't want to hit that price point (probably because there would be too much to choose from at that price range - Touch, Classic, iPhone). I dont think we'll see cheap phones until the Classic gets killed.

Finally, Apple cant ship a 32GB iPhone because of the current flash memory chip densities. Unless they figure out how to cram four flash memory chips in the phone (instead of possibly making it thinner/lighter) they cant get to 32GB with current densities. We wont see the next step up in flash memory densities until this time next year. So we could see a 32GB iPhone next March, but until then we're stuck with at most 16GB. Which is fine - I really only watch movies on my phone when I'm stuck somewhere for a long period of time (an airplane usually). I dont think I've used the iPod functionality much lately.

So thats my rationale on the 399/499 prices.