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42mm Space Grey May 13 - 27
- Thread starter dnitzsche
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My UPS tracking number is finally showing status updates. Interestingly it did not originate in Louisville, Kentucky. It's shipping from Ontario, California (I'm located in the Bay Area). So not all the watches are being shipped to KY and/or PA before being shipped to other states.
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when were you charged? I was charged yesterday, but my tracking number isn't working yet.
This thread needs an FAQ that pops up before anyone posts a question. Wonder if the mods could pull that off?
You can find the exact time of your order conirmation email by viewing the original email headers or by forwarding the message to yourself. Or you can chat with an Apple rep on the Store site/App. But we've seen enough reps misread the time and cause a panic attack. Go by the email. Your order was processed 4-6 seconds before that.
UPS planes fly from China to Alaska and Alaska to Louisville virtually every day. No one actually knows if there are watches on any given flight. UPS does not operate these flights exclusively for Apple.
No one has determined with any certainty at what stage of the shipment process credit cards get charged. Besides inconsistent data If Apple ships 100,000 watches in a day it takes tim to post all those charges. Also different CC co's post things with different delays.
We don't know when Apple will ship you Watch. It's a guess based on really sketchy data and unknown sample sizes.
We also do not have any fixed time that it will be from when your status goes from PFS to a tually shipped. It varies.
The length of time that it takes from receiving your Shipment notice to your shipment number to be trackable on UPS website also varies. Some have even reported that the Watch was delivered before it showed on UPS.
When your watch ships the days to receive it will vary by where you are. But almost certianly it will be delivered on the date that was in your ship notice email from Apple. They know they supply chain exquisitely well. Even if tracking does not show on UPS.
Have I missed any of the oft repeated questions? Feel free to copy/paste when the questions get asked again and again.
Honestly I hooe this thread dies soon because that means you all got your watches! Mine will be here Wed.
You can find the exact time of your order conirmation email by viewing the original email headers or by forwarding the message to yourself. Or you can chat with an Apple rep on the Store site/App. But we've seen enough reps misread the time and cause a panic attack. Go by the email. Your order was processed 4-6 seconds before that.
UPS planes fly from China to Alaska and Alaska to Louisville virtually every day. No one actually knows if there are watches on any given flight. UPS does not operate these flights exclusively for Apple.
No one has determined with any certainty at what stage of the shipment process credit cards get charged. Besides inconsistent data If Apple ships 100,000 watches in a day it takes tim to post all those charges. Also different CC co's post things with different delays.
We don't know when Apple will ship you Watch. It's a guess based on really sketchy data and unknown sample sizes.
We also do not have any fixed time that it will be from when your status goes from PFS to a tually shipped. It varies.
The length of time that it takes from receiving your Shipment notice to your shipment number to be trackable on UPS website also varies. Some have even reported that the Watch was delivered before it showed on UPS.
When your watch ships the days to receive it will vary by where you are. But almost certianly it will be delivered on the date that was in your ship notice email from Apple. They know they supply chain exquisitely well. Even if tracking does not show on UPS.
Have I missed any of the oft repeated questions? Feel free to copy/paste when the questions get asked again and again.
Honestly I hooe this thread dies soon because that means you all got your watches! Mine will be here Wed.
Finally some UPS progress.
1:16 AM today - "Order Processed - ready for UPS". Doesn't say anything but "United States" so not sure where this is.
7:13 PM today - Origin scan. Says Ontario, California so that would be less than 45 minutes ago. Should have no trouble getting from California to Hawaii overnight.
Saw the UPS truck here at 1:00 PM today. Sure hope it gets here that early tomorrow!
1:16 AM today - "Order Processed - ready for UPS". Doesn't say anything but "United States" so not sure where this is.
7:13 PM today - Origin scan. Says Ontario, California so that would be less than 45 minutes ago. Should have no trouble getting from California to Hawaii overnight.
Saw the UPS truck here at 1:00 PM today. Sure hope it gets here that early tomorrow!
I'm not a statistician, but what if we did the following:
If the number of watches needed to "fill" each of the first two waves (Apr 24 - May 8 and May 13 - May 27) are equal, let's do a little math.
I'm guessing that it took roughly 2 minutes to fill the first waves orders.
Then, it took an additional 18 minutes (assuming the 20 minute mark is where the 2nd wave turned into simply "June") for the 2nd wave to hit the same quota.
That means, assuming the above is correct, it took 9 times longer to fill the quota of orders.
Then, how many days did it take to completely fulfill the 1st wave orders, per 30 seconds.
Is this data worth anything to use towards forming a hypothesis, if we extrapolate it over a give timeframe, say, the first hour of orders, to estimate a timeframe of production numbers, and therefore, if in a vacuum, could provide a good estimate of how long it would take to fulfill those first hour orders?
Maybe nothing I said above makes any sense...just rambling as we await the next planes.
Edit: a little math...with basic numbers for easy math
1st Wave - 1000 watches - 2 minutes - 500 watches per minute
2nd Wave - 1000 watches - 18 minutes - 56 watches per minute
If the number of watches needed to "fill" each of the first two waves (Apr 24 - May 8 and May 13 - May 27) are equal, let's do a little math.
I'm guessing that it took roughly 2 minutes to fill the first waves orders.
Then, it took an additional 18 minutes (assuming the 20 minute mark is where the 2nd wave turned into simply "June") for the 2nd wave to hit the same quota.
That means, assuming the above is correct, it took 9 times longer to fill the quota of orders.
Then, how many days did it take to completely fulfill the 1st wave orders, per 30 seconds.
Is this data worth anything to use towards forming a hypothesis, if we extrapolate it over a give timeframe, say, the first hour of orders, to estimate a timeframe of production numbers, and therefore, if in a vacuum, could provide a good estimate of how long it would take to fulfill those first hour orders?
Maybe nothing I said above makes any sense...just rambling as we await the next planes.
Edit: a little math...with basic numbers for easy math
1st Wave - 1000 watches - 2 minutes - 500 watches per minute
2nd Wave - 1000 watches - 18 minutes - 56 watches per minute
We're still about an hour and a half away from the standard time that charges start happening each day.
If my Aunt had a d--k I guess she'd be my uncle.
Not slagging but holy cow are you over thinking it? Trying to do meaningful math on a limited sample of non-scientific data points using the words, if, assuming and guessing is not really a productive exercise.
Sit back and watch as more and more watches fet delivered. Soon no one will visit this thread.
I was charged Saturday afternoon (Pacific time). It took about 10 hours for the tracking number to work and another 12 for it to show any status updates.
For the record I'm xx:11:56. As it gets closer I get more anxious. Now I understand why crackheads can't get it together. This is my last refresh. I'm powerless! ⌚️
My 42mm SG+BSB is in motion, still scheduled for delivery tomorrow, Tuesday, here in Mississippi. Curiously though, after starting in the much-trafficked hub of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, the watch just detoured through Linthicum, Maryland.
Where will it land next? Louisville, Kentucky? Ontario, California? Timbuktu, Mali?
Who knows!
Where will it land next? Louisville, Kentucky? Ontario, California? Timbuktu, Mali?
Who knows!
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There is a flight that goes from Anchorage to Ontario.. but it did not land yet today so I have no idea why people would have UPS tracking with an origin scan in Ontario already
This is it -
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/UPS77/history/20150511/2338Z/PANC/KONT
This is it -
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/UPS77/history/20150511/2338Z/PANC/KONT
There is a flight that goes from Anchorage to Ontario.. but it did not land yet today so I have no idea why people would have UPS tracking with an origin scan in Ontario already
This is it -
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/UPS77/history/20150511/2338Z/PANC/KONT
Thanks for the link.
I jumped on at 2:24 am central time and they were already in June. Couldn't believe my eyes. Cried a little and then bought a may delivery one off eBay. Horrible decision when he is very unresponsive.
i'm curious to know how many times the flightaware.com links have been posted in this thread now? Gotta be minimum 200.
My buddy just got charged for his 4/25, 42mm Sport WSB. I'm assuming others will start now as well.