Mini iPod Analysis
1) It's not about the PRICE.
Steve said he's going after the $100-200 high-end MP3 player crowd. This doesn't mean he's going to sell for $100-200 (obviously), but that he hopes to win those buyers over.
Many (not all, many) of these players went for Flash because of two factors: size and joggability. The microdrives and certainly the Cornice drives (if that's what the minipods use) have significantly better shock handling than the 1.8" Toshiba drives the normal iPod uses, and even those aren't overly bad at handling shocks. And, of course, business card size is about the same size as the larger high-end MP3 players.
Giving the two key factors to these consumers, then adding significantly more space (4GB instead of 256MB upgradable to 768MB if you spend a lot more on CF cards), better features (minus the radio players that no one on epinions can seem to get to work unless they're jogging next to a radio tower), and faster writing (a friend has an RCA 256MB unit ... 15 minutes for 64MB to write! Holy sh*t! That's over USB 1.1, but still, that's way below the throughput of USB 1.1 even; a USB 2.0 interface can't speed that up any!)
Finally, throw on a more rugged design overall (no holes on the top to fill with lint or grime or sweat; no nobby control sticks to get stuck or broken; no USB cover which is already halfway torn off after less than ten round-trips to the computer for music refills ...), and a significantly better UI (what, you mean "Prev Song/Next Song" isn't the ultimate in music navigation?).
Even adding $50 to the price of such a unit will snare a significant margin of the non-price-driven crowd. Selling it at the same price as your competitor's 4GB player will obviously steal that competitor's business quite thoroughly.
It is not about the PRICE. It is about providing a usable form factor and killer features and design, and driving the portion of the market which is not price-driven, to Apple. Apple is not going to compete on price alone, ever. Apple is not set up to peddle commodities. Apple is driven by innovation and design, and so will aim to sell to those likewise driven, and convert the rest of you heathens 🙂
If you are buying an MP3 player based primarily on price, Apple is not actively competing for your business. They'd love it if you'd see the light, though 🙂
2) It is not about iPod vs iPod mini.
The iPod is a completely different animal. If you want an iPod, and can live with it's horrendously ungainly size ( 🙂 ), then get an iPod. Apple's not after your business (they already have it -- duh!); they're after the afore-mentioned high-end flash market.
3) Minipod Future
I think that Apple may eventually transition over to the Minipod entirely as a music player. The "classic" iPod may transition up into a larger device, or it may go away entirely; there's just not a whole lot of innovation that can be done on a music-only player ... size bumps are getting beyond the range needed by most mere mortals or their music collections, and I certainly don't see anything "revolutionary" having come down the line recently nor anything in the future. Overall, the larger iPod is nearing the end of the line. But that's 2-3 years out, at least, IMHO.
In the likewise long-term future I see the Minipod getting larger and gaining features more than getting cheaper. Eventually, you'll see a 40GB+ drive in the Minipod form factor.
In the nearer term, the Minipod will retain its current price until and unless Apple needs to lower the price (due to competition). There is doubtless some buffer in the price, and once Apple has a certain segment of the market tied up they may lower the price to get the pseudo-bargain-hunters to bite.
Listen, folks: portability and size reduction always has a price. Size is not a flexible thing; either a device fits where you need to carry it or it doesn't. The minipod is the best damned business-card-sized music player out there, bar none, and it's not any more expensive than the competition.
IMHO, just like the original iPod, people just won't "get it" until they've held one in their hand. Please plan the appropriate Apple Store pilgrimage this Spring.
