Consdiering the bad taste Palm is giving Apple and how devoted Sprint seems to be with supporting palm, don't expect the iPhone there anytime soon.
If Verizon gets the iPhone, that's fine. Doesn't mean I'm going to Verizon, however. I'll stick with AT&T.
AT&T is definitely going to get the next iPhone, exclusive or not. Verizon will not get exclusivity. It would be stupid for Apple to have to still build an internationally-compatible version for GSM-rooted networks, and not sell it on AT&T.
In the end though, I think the barrier here isn't the exclusivity agreement at all. Apple will want to build a single, multiband, multi-carrier phone so that any next-gen iPhone rolling off the assembly line will work on any network they have an agreement with. Apple is (or should be anyway) deathly worried about users who will freak that their Verizon iPhone won't work internationally when AT&T's does because the Verizon model lacks GSM.
The bad news is, that means building an iPhone with 6 radios, instead of the current 4:
- GSM
- HSDPA
- Bluetooth
- WiFi
- CDMA
- LTE
Plus GPS, though that doesn't transmit, it only receives.
And keep battery life the same or better. And probably add new functionality. And keep the form factor the same or possibly smaller/lighter. i don't know about you guys, but I am unwilling to sacrifice on any of these factors just so Verizon can start hawking a phone they've spent 2+ years putting down.
For this reason, I still doubt we're going to see a Verizon iPhone next year. Maybe the year after.
And before anyone argues the point: an LTE-only iPhone is out of the question for next year. Not a single city has LTE running now. Even optimistic estimates say it'll only be running in a few major cities, even on Verizon, next year. The coverage for an LTE-only phone will be pathetic for years to come. There has to be backward compatibility of some type for at least the next 5 years, if not 10.