8.5 million CHINA Pre-Orders

sillywabbit

macrumors 6502a
Original poster
Nov 10, 2012
592
4
According to a regularly updated spreadsheet kept by Forbes analyst Chuck Jones, using data provided by the Chinese live tracking website JD.com, current estimated Chinese preorders of the iPhone 6 amount to 8.5 million — only a fraction less than the 10 million+ units which sold worldwide in all available markets over the iPhone 6’s opening weekend.

What was it that Tim Cook said about China being a key market for Apple, again?

Read more at http://www.cultofmac.com/299391/official-iphone-6-6-plus-pre-orders-begin-china/#srwmAxwJ72etm2T5.99
Source: http://www.cultofmac.com/299391/official-iphone-6-6-plus-pre-orders-begin-china/


Wow, China is a HUGE market. Preorder at 8.5 million in China alone compared to 10 million sold WORLDWIDE! This doesn't count those who DIDN'T preorder in China will buy after release day.

No wonder there are no iphone 6's (shortage) in the United States.

Now the question is: How will this affect production of iphones, with such a huge market? Will there continue be a shortage in the US until Apple fills all those preorders.
 

noekozz

macrumors 6502a
Jun 29, 2010
606
1,034
212/201
Who knows but this is bad news for scalpers. (which for the most part has died down somewhat). With such demand I'm pretty sure it'll effect supplies worldwide to some extent.
 

uwdude

macrumors 6502a
Jul 16, 2014
914
468
Wow. I doubt even Foxconn and Pegatron can produce upwards of 20 million iPhones in a month or so to meet both China's and the rest of the world's demand. I wonder if Apple and these Chinese plants have considered building a "megaplant" that can produce 10's of millions of products in short time periods. If that's even possible.
 

golfdude

macrumors regular
Aug 5, 2005
249
30
And there were fools on these forums that believed the China launch wasn't going to put a dent in supply for US.
 

Resqu2

macrumors 6502a
Apr 23, 2011
764
177
All I read was I may never get my 6+ that's scheduled for the end of this month.
 

deeddawg

macrumors G3
Jun 14, 2010
8,963
2,771
US
I wonder if Apple and these Chinese plants have considered building a "megaplant" that can produce 10's of millions of products in short time periods. If that's even possible.
Supply chain is a complex thing. Apple's already a master of it yet still faces contraints when operating on this kind of scale.

Your idea would require production capacity to be increased across the entire supply chain. From the aluminum blocks forming the chassis to the materials suppliers to the chip foundries to the display manufacturers to the suppliers of the companies making the machines that make the phone chassis and boards and displays, to the box makers and all the way up to people assembling the phones. What do you do with all that capacity the rest of the year? Let it sit idle collecting dust? That's a huge expense that would substantially add to the phone prices.

And what about the people? How much would you have to pay to get them to drop their existing jobs and come work for that month or so with no promise they'd be able to go back to their old jobs? Would you do that when you had a spouse and children to support?
 

12vElectronics

macrumors 68040
Jul 19, 2013
3,927
1,222
California
Apple still designates a certain percentage or number of phones be brought here to the USA. So even if China has 8.5 million pre orders, it just means their walk ins won't get a phone for a while. Our local Apple stores will still get daily shipments of phones.

In fact, if you're not too picky about color and capacity, many of my local stores have had 6's in stock for walk ins for a while now..
 

Jschultz

macrumors 6502a
Mar 14, 2005
878
12
Chicago, IL
Supply chain is a complex thing. Apple's already a master of it yet still faces contraints when operating on this kind of scale.

Your idea would require production capacity to be increased across the entire supply chain. From the aluminum blocks forming the chassis to the materials suppliers to the chip foundries to the display manufacturers to the suppliers of the companies making the machines that make the phone chassis and boards and displays, to the box makers and all the way up to people assembling the phones. What do you do with all that capacity the rest of the year? Let it sit idle collecting dust? That's a huge expense that would substantially add to the phone prices.

And what about the people? How much would you have to pay to get them to drop their existing jobs and come work for that month or so with no promise they'd be able to go back to their old jobs? Would you do that when you had a spouse and children to support?
Pretty much this. Adding capacity can be extremely difficult. I've worked at companies who have tried to do this, and there are so many things to consider and so many things that need to fall in to place.

Not only that, but it is extremely challenging to forecast for products that have increasing demand. I find it amazing that each iteration of the iPhone outsells the previous by a sometimes healthy margin.
 

Surf Monkey

macrumors 68030
Oct 3, 2010
2,687
474
Portland, OR
12v and Dee have it right. It isn't as if Apple is stumbling around in the dark going "oh no! China needs how many??" They estimate these numbers FAR in advance for each of their global markets separately.
 

golfdude

macrumors regular
Aug 5, 2005
249
30
Do people on this thread really think that China's launch isn't affecting the supply level in the US? Really...
 

Ramio

macrumors 6502a
Sep 13, 2011
919
2
Houston, TeXas
Do you really think Apple didn't anticipate and plan for this kind of volume in both markets? Really?
Actually yes I do. Look at the very limited stock here in the US for the last 3 weeks, their biggest market!. I understand they have to make lots of them but Apple really needs to come up with a better system.
 

GLS

macrumors 6502
Jun 26, 2010
362
107
Actually yes I do. Look at the very limited stock here in the US for the last 3 weeks, their biggest market!. I understand they have to make lots of them but Apple really needs to come up with a better system.
I'm not so certain that this is true any longer.....
 

myscrnnm

macrumors 65816
Sep 16, 2014
1,408
874
Seattle, WA
Your idea would require production capacity to be increased across the entire supply chain. From the aluminum blocks forming the chassis to the materials suppliers to the chip foundries to the display manufacturers to the suppliers of the companies making the machines that make the phone chassis and boards and displays, to the box makers and all the way up to people assembling the phones. What do you do with all that capacity the rest of the year? Let it sit idle collecting dust? That's a huge expense that would substantially add to the phone prices.
That's exactly right. It just doesn't make sense economically for Apple to invest in manufacturing facilities just so customers can get iPhones on release day for a few weeks out of the year. We've seen that at their current production rates, there are no shortages after the few initial months of a product's release.

Same thing applies to their servers for preorders. People wonder why they can't handle the load of millions of customers trying to order an iPhone all within minutes of each other.
 

mpfuchs

macrumors 6502a
Sep 19, 2014
519
1,379
VA
Call me crazy, but I think that's the whole reason why the 6 and 6+ were not available in China at US launch date.
 

Surf Monkey

macrumors 68030
Oct 3, 2010
2,687
474
Portland, OR
Actually yes I do. Look at the very limited stock here in the US for the last 3 weeks, their biggest market!. I understand they have to make lots of them but Apple really needs to come up with a better system.
Because one of the biggest tech companies on the planet has no ability to estimate sales, determine potential manufacturing yield, distribution capability and so forth? Come on now. They spend millions on that kind of analysis and you know it. We're not talking about Tim Cook sitting alone in an office going "Dang! How many pre-orders in China!? We can't make that many!!"

----------

Evidently not. I assume your being sarcastic.
I'm not and it appears you're a little naive.
 

golfdude

macrumors regular
Aug 5, 2005
249
30
Because one of the biggest tech companies on the planet has no ability to estimate sales, determine potential manufacturing yield, distribution capability and so forth? Come on now. They spend millions on that kind of analysis and you know it. We're not talking about Tim Cook sitting alone in an office going "Dang! How many pre-orders in China!? We can't make that many!!"

----------



I'm not and it appears you're a little naive.
The 4-6 week backlog, very little in store stock is exactly what Apple wants. I feel like I arguing with a pimple faced teenager....
 

noobinator

macrumors 604
Jun 19, 2009
6,609
5,714
Pasadena, CA
If I owned a business I'd much prefer to sell a phone to everyone who wants one rather than having a backlog of customers who want one but can't get one.
 

eelw

macrumors 6502a
Sep 19, 2012
631
26
I still say divert stock that was planned to the 2nd and 3rd wave countries and flood US, China, Japan, UK, Australian and Canada. Sell 15-20 million units to the top selling countries before getting it out to 150+ worldwide countries.
 

noobinator

macrumors 604
Jun 19, 2009
6,609
5,714
Pasadena, CA
Apple RARELY misses their deadlines when they give you a shipping/delivery estimate. For all those that have ordered already I'd say the vast majority of you will get it when Apple says you will.

They have teams of people who forecast sales and forecast estimated dates they can get phones in the hands of consumers.

The one thing the Chinese and further international release will do is push back those that order now or in the future.
 
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.