I'm going for the 10-core M2 MBA. IMO you will notice a difference. Despite thermal throttling, more cores on the same payload of work should result in less work per core. According to my own findings, specially in games (on the 7-GPU core M1 MBA), thermal throttling doesn't make much of a difference (depending on a case-to-case scenario), rather than just cooling-down the entire system overall (which obviously puts less stress on the rest of components).
If I set, lets say, a specific PlayStation 2 game to emulate (AetherSX2), at a resolution of 1080p (running at 60fps), and the GPU use is already at 70-90% I can no longer raise the resolution to 2K because the cores cannot deliver more performance (no head space). Thermal throttling is not an issue because even at lower clock speeds the system can still deliver 1080p60fps, so in this case I'm not profiting from it.
Now if instead of 7 cores I had 8, such as the M1 MacBook Pro, the GPU could deliver more performance, ceteris paribus, I could possibly raise the resolution to 1440p, while still achieving those 60fps.
Regarding the M2 MacBook Air, 10 cores means you're getting 3 extra cores compared to the base model M1 MBA, which translates into a 43% boost in cores. On top of this, each core has its new design which should deliver more performance overall resulting in a better performing system.
Since we still do not have our hands on any of the M2 Macs, we will have to wait and see the reviews and analysis.
I have my own
YouTube channel where I test performance of games in general (Native ARM, Parallels, Crossover/WINE, Rosetta2, Emulators (PS2, PS3, GC, etc.)), with a bunch of metrics (FPS, CPU%, RAM%, SoC Tº, Ambient Tº, GPU Use, CPU Use per core), so that we can get a good idea of what's going on under the hood (
Here's an example)
I'm expecting to receive the M2 MacBook Pro (8CPU/10GPU), next week to release a bunch of testing in this regard, and after that, the same with the new M2 MacBook Air. I will carry out direct comparisons with the M1 MBA, and then with all three together.
My focus is simply on gaming, so that's all I can talk about.