Re: Re: Re: I gotta hunch...
Originally posted by Snowy_River
I hear this refrain over and over, but I have yet to hear one good argument for it. If Apple can put the 970 into the PowerBooks now, why wouldn't they?
Ummmm ... Because if Apple can put an 970 into a PowerBook, with all the constraints of laptop design, then they can more easily and cheaply put it into a desktop tower, with relatively few design constraints and a far larger power supply.
In other words, the problem is not that Apple wouldn't put it into a laptop before a desktop if it could, but rather that it is a very rare case indeed that a new processor can be shoehorned into a laptop at the same time as or especially before it can be plopped into a desktop.
Personally, I am prepared to be surprised by a dual or near-simultaneous announcements of the 970 in the PowerMac as well as PowerBook lines (that's the kind of theatrics Jobs loves), but I am also prepared for the more likely scenario which is that the processor debut on the towers and migrate to the laptops within the year. I would be astoundingly surprised if the 970 were to be announced and ship in laptops before it shipped in towers.
That having been said, it's a rare thing to have such a huge advance in processor power that a product line has to straddle, and certainly amongst those "in the know" I'd expect drastically reduced G4-based machine sales the instant the first 970 configuration is announced (not moving to buy the 970 machine, but witing until the mid-levels of the lines carry the new processor). The likelihood of simultaneous announcements increases the more Apple believes its customers will see the full-line shift as inevitable, and the more Apple believes its customers will understand the massive leap in performance with the new chip. Remember that not all of Apple's customers are as highly hyper-informed as we try to be
Now, order-wise, if Jobs announces 970 laptops, any reasonably informed individual expects that within a week or so the towers will be announced, and so the second announcement is not a surprise (remember, "surprise" is Apple's key strategy to keep sales of previous models going right up to the debut of the new model). If Apple, on the other hand, announces 970 desktops one week, it would still be a huge surprise if Jobs were to announce the laptops the next week. Two major surprises if it is done this order, and hence two lines that don't suffer from pre-announcement sales loss. Of course, given a reality of 970s on the desktop, it is not at all predetermined that the 970 will be hitting the laptops soon, so even a 6-9 month delay before announcing laptops fits the Apple surprise-announcement strategy.
So, if I had to pick, I'd say MacBid is more likely than not about right regarding >6 months between the tower and the laptop. But I'd give the simultaneous "event" announcement at at least 25% possibility, maybe as high as 40%, and laptops-substantially-before-towers announcements at a little under 1%.
