970 at WWDC?

[MacBandit]

Originally posted by nighthawk
Just to remind everyone, even the 1.8Ghz draws 45w of power... which is much closer to the 64w of the 2.5Ghz than to the 10w of the 1.0Ghz.

Sure Apple/IBM may develop a "Speed-Step" like feature and that would make a lot of sense... even stepping it down to 1.0Ghz for idle would make the machine still quite responsive and produce less heat. However, doesn't the processor need to support this "Speed-Stepping". I think the way that the AMD/Intel chips do it is reducing the front-side bus because the clock multiplier is locked. Is this even technically possible with the IBM bus?

I do bet that a PPC970 Powerbook will be coming out within the year, and it would make the most sense to do it during the summer (NOW) because buyers are not expecting to have the Powerbook go much above 1.0Ghz for a while. If Apple releases a 1.2Ghz PPC970 Powerbook, it would be one solid machine and most-likely would draw less power/heat than the current G4 chip. Then the iBook could be stepped up in speed, and at the end of the year when the Motorola chips are at the .13 microns, the iBook gets the G4.

This all sounds plasible except I really don't expect to see the 970s in a Mac this year. It is much more plasible that Apple will be using the G4 7457 in a mid year revission.

Back to the 970 in the Powerbook. Yes, if the 970s go in the Powerbook it will open up the iBook to use the G4. Oh, wait a minute there is already a G4 iBook. It's called the PowerBook 12". My personal feeling is they developed the 12" Powerbook originally to be a G4 iBook but due to the lack of faster and newer processors from Motorola they could not release an iBook that would compete with the Pro market so the 12" Powerbook was born. As soon as faster or newer processors become availabe expect the 12" Powerbook to get renamed and to drop in price.

 

[nuckinfutz]

This all sounds plasible except I really don't expect to see the 970s in a Mac this year. It is much more plasible that Apple will be using the G4 7457 in a mid year revission.

7457 Press Release

Pricing and Availability
Alpha samples of the MPC7457 and MPC7447 PowerPC processors are available today to selected customers. General market sampling is planned for March, with production expected to commence in Q4 2003. Suggested retail pricing for the MPC7457 at 1 GHz is expected to be $189 (USD) in quantities of 10,000.

Obviously Motorola doesn't share your optimism. Q4 release all but kills any chance of Apple using a 7457 in a Mid Year revision.

 

[dongmin]

Originally posted by cr2sh
You hit the nail on the head. The only question is when. g4's in the ibooks by christmas? maybe, but I bet we'll get a 1ghz g3 before then. the g3 isn't dead yet.

I think it´s safe to say that Apple won´t move the iBooks to G4s until the entire PowerBook line is moved to the next generation chip. Maybe at the next MWSF. They just released the 12" PowerBooks, which are selling well, from what I can gather. So I´d expect Apple to milk that design for at least a year.

 

[-hh]

Originally posted by scem0


Originally posted by nighthawk
Fourth, I would guess that Apple would release
Fast: Single 1.8ghz PPC970
Faster: Single 2.2ghz PPC970
Fastest: Dual 1.8ghz PPC970


I don't think the speeds will go over 2 GHz. Just because IBM is capable of 2.5 GHz doesn't mean they are capable of mass producing them. I wouldn't be suprised if speeds only went up to 1.8 GHz. If you are expecting a dual 2.5 GHz powermac, you
are in for some dissapointment, me thinks.

These are along my thoughts as well.

If I were inclined to make predictions, I'd be inclined to say that Apple's going to repeat the Yikes/Sawtooth segmentation and thus, the lowest-end PowerMac tower will remain on a G4, so as to consume up the hardware "leftovers" in the pipeline (FWIW, note that Apple's website is still quietly selling OS 9-bootable PowerMac towers).

As such, my unedicated guess as to how Apple will stragetically position themselves is as follows (all speeds are subject to whetever tweaking is required for bus speed multipliers):

Bottom is going to be a G4 SP @ 1.25GHz, with a possible DP option.
Middle is going to be a 970 SP @ 1.5GHz
Top is going to be a 970 DP @ 1.8GHz


This is JMO, taken in part from the extremely generalized observation that Apple's old Top machine becomes the new middle, and the old middle becomes the new bottom, etc. As such, we have to assume that on this upgrade cycle, the "Middle" machine will look/perform a lot like a DP 1.43GHz G4.

And yes, it was not a typographical error that I said 1.5GHz for the lowest level 970 chip instead of 1.8GHz. Underclocking here improves yield & profit, so it would make sense to do so on the very first product release.

Similarly, the next update cycle after this one will be along the lines of the following, for 2004:

Bottom: 970 SP @ 1.5GHz; possible SP 1.8GHz option.
Middle: 970 DP @ 1.8GHz
Top: 970 DP @ 2.3GHz


FWIW, I agree that these numbers are very gloomily underwhelming, but I really have to suspect that Apple's been burned severely enough with the G4/Motorola scaling woes over the past 2 year that they're going to choose to strategically hold back some CPU speed in their back pocket.

Doing so lets them keep costs down while yields improve, as well as gives them a little bit of headroom to avoid getting "stuck" again with a longish period of misery where they don't have any speed scaling to offer to refreshen their products.


-hh

 

[powermatt]

I don't know if anyone has looked at apple's financial history, but there is all this talk about if they don't do something in May, their sales are going to plummet, and others who say that there sales are already bottomed out but there Net sales statistics show that there numbers are only down a few points from there sales in 1998 and 1999. I twasn't til 2000 when they spiked, followed by a huge dip in 2001 and then in 2002 they were back on par from three to four years prior. Point being that despite all the good things that have come and all the speculation and false promises that have been leaked in the past 5 years, not too much has happened to their sales to effect them dramatically one way or the other. It more matters to people like us who survive on rumors and speculation, exactly what is going to happen if Apple does or doesn't launch whatever whenever. When the G5, or PPC 970 comes out it is going to be awesome, and sure we may see a spike in sales but the overall trend isn't going to waiver that dramatically.

 

[nuckinfutz]

I prefer not to be gloomy

Apple is NOT going to ship the low end Powermac with a G4. Period end of story. It wouldn't even be worth the effort. They're not selling now so why would Apple even consider it when PPC 970's are available.

Apple wants to hit 8-10 billion in revenue. They aren't going to do that being "timid" about processor speed.

They have much more at stake

Xserve- An opportunity for Apple to make inroads in the lucrative Midsize to Enterprise environ.

Shake, Final Cut Pro, Webobject- Big Apps that Apple needs to bear fruit from.

It's time to stop messing around. The 970 has legs and there's not need to fear it running out of steam. IBM wants it to succeed more than Apple does.

 

[hasapi]

970 in the PowerBook

I checked the power figures from IBM the 970 @ 1.2GHz draws 19W, the 1GHz G4 (current PowerBook) draws 30W.

The 1.8GHz 970 however draws 42W, which might be a problem - or a battery drain?. But seriously, a PB @ 1.2GHz G5 - is my bet as to what it will be called (64bit), will be much faster than the current 1GHz G4.

The 90nm process will fix that issue, but not till later in 2004?.

Im also hoping Apple brings out the PMac at least at the 1.8GHz 970 SP for the low end and scale up from there, to allow the low end Macs to scale up a little with the G4.

The problem might well be having some headroom beyond the 2.5GHz limit!.

 

[Coca-Cola]

First off, I think the 970 will appear at the WWDC. Although, I think the information about 970 only being available for the few are incorrect. That seems awkward for apple to do right now. They are pushing the openess of the system to developers. It would be snobbish of them to only invite the few.
--------------------------------------------------
I predict that the big developers have 970 boxes and will be previewing their 64 bit software. What ever happened to those welded shut boxes apple was rumored to have sent out? The big developers have them now.
---------------------------------------------------
I hope the 970 comes out quickly. Before I have to start shopping for a wintel system. I must admit I am having a hard time turning over 2000$ for a machine that may only be twice as fast as the one I have now. I want to whoop some butt.

 

[nuckinfutz]

The 90nm process will fix that issue, but not till later in 2004?.

No it won't be late 2004. You're confusing IBM with Motorola. IBM can actually fab their processors on time LOL. The Fishkill Fab is primarily setup for 90nm so think of 130nm as it's "honeymoon" phase before the fun starts.

 

[ffakr]

Originally posted by nuckinfutz
No it won't be late 2004. You're confusing IBM with Motorola. IBM can actually fab their processors on time LOL. The Fishkill Fab is primarily setup for 90nm so think of 130nm as it's "honeymoon" phase before the fun starts.

IBM was supposed to be ramping up .09 at Fishkill in Feburary. If they are on track, they are mass producing chips at .09 already.
That doesn't mean they are making CPUs at .09... but they may be fabbing something already.

 

[nighthawk]

Originally posted by Coca-Cola
First off, I think the 970 will appear at the WWDC. Although, I think the information about 970 only being available for the few are incorrect. That seems awkward for apple to do right now. They are pushing the openess of the system to developers. It would be snobbish of them to only invite the few.

I tend to agree... although everyone who attends WWDC may not actually see the PPC970 preview Mac, Apple is not going to hold back the information that they are developing for 64bit... and IBM's chip is the only one that they can use right now. I would not be suprised if they...

1) Release an update for ProjectBuilder/gcc that supports 64bit.
2) Have seminars for utilizing the 64bit chip.
3) Release information on OS 10.3
4) Announce the XServe with PPC970.

The last one, my logic is as follows.... they only sold about 8000 XServes last quarter, and it is possible that IBM will have production to supply a few thousand (with Apple shipping in mid-July). Even without a shipping 64bit OS, the PPC970 runs in 32bit with only a slight performance hit. The XServe would benefit with the faster speeds and low heat (compared to the G4), and professional markets would be assured that the architecture would be cutting-edge.

Apple will not (in my opinion) ship the PPC970-based Macs before 10.3 is released, and that is rumored to be in September. They might annouce the PPC970 Powermac mid-July though because it really will not hurt sales that much compared to what they are now.

 

[job]

i'm in a bit of a dilemma right now and it stems from the current swirl of 970 rumors.

i should, by all accounts, have slightly over 3 grand by the beginning of october. i am planning on upgrading my computer (a 400Mhz iMac) to a new tower and lcd. i'm looking at a viewsonic 17" for around 450. that leaves me roughly 2600 to blow on a new mac.

with all these rumors going around, i'm slightly hesitant as to when and what to purchase.

should I purchase the best and brightest apple has to offer then, or should i wait until the beginning of next year?

 

[ffakr]

Originally posted by hitman
i'm in a bit of a dilemma right now and it stems from the current swirl of 970 rumors.

i should, by all accounts, have slightly over 3 grand by the beginning of october. i am planning on upgrading my computer (a 400Mhz iMac) to a new tower and lcd. i'm looking at a viewsonic 17" for around 450. that leaves me roughly 2600 to blow on a new mac.

with all these rumors going around, i'm slightly hesitant as to when and what to purchase.

should I purchase the best and brightest apple has to offer then, or should i wait until the beginning of next year?

That's a question you should ask in the begining of October. 🙂
I think you'll have 970s in the store, or at least on pre-order by then.

 

[scem0]

Originally posted by -hh
Bottom is going to be a G4 SP @ 1.25GHz, with a possible DP option.
Middle is going to be a 970 SP @ 1.5GHz
Top is going to be a 970 DP @ 1.8GHz

Similarly, the next update cycle after this one will be along the lines of the following, for 2004:

Bottom: 970 SP @ 1.5GHz; possible SP 1.8GHz option.
Middle: 970 DP @ 1.8GHz
Top: 970 DP @ 2.3GHz

-hh

These are logical assumptions, but I think it would benifit apple
to have all 3 being 970's. But those are logically speculated
and I wouldn't be suprised it they were very close to what Apple
ends up releasing.

 

[hasapi]

Ahh, I did not say late 2004 - please read the post properly. I said "...and later in 2004", means sometime in 2004 we will see the 90nm 970 CPU - jmho.

I suspect IBM will try to get a ROI on its R&D from the 130nm 970, and this is IBM's business economics that Apple cannot dictate terms to.

Also, I dont know why people keep posting that the bottom PMac will be G4? Does not make sense to me. They will all be 970's, SP's and DP's - just not quite sure the clock speed that Apple will settle on for G5 Rev A.

The other thing curious to me will be how quickly will the transition be for the PB's to the 970 when @ 1.2GHz 970 is much cooler and much faster (than the 1GHz G4)?

I think Ill hang on to my TiG4 400 fo a liitle longer!

 

[Rocketman]

Timeline speculation

So lets assume a 970 exists. Let's further assume that by May 03 there is enough beta hardware to get high end developers each a system and tools to compile code with.

So, to do that you need a beta 10.5.64 and Metrowerks and some other tools, preferably a dual boot utility since it will likely be crash-o-matic.

Lets further assume WWDC 03 (May) Apple releases the development call to software gurus to begin writing code for 64 bit, 4+ processes or threads, anf 2 or more processors plus farms and stacks.

Let us further assume a 0.13 micron processor runs at 1.8 and 2.0 ghz at release and can be installed up to 2 per box.

Let us further assume they will be the most expensive chip and supplementary chipsets Apple has used for a decade.

We're talking X-=serve not a desktop target market for about a year or two of the chip's life. It doesn't matter how long you "hold out" for a PowerPC 970, you will not save alot of money, and wait, to get real work done unnecessarily. Get G4's now. Plan to BEGIN shopping for a 970 a year or more after it is announced.

The initial market will be server farms where the processor and bus speed is hyper-critical. And commands value.

This is Apple's first step into true enterprise space. It will be priced accordingly.

Rocketman

 

[job]

Re: Timeline speculation

Originally posted by Rocketman
It will be priced accordingly.

I thought that the 970s were actually cheaper to make than the G4 series of chips.

Also, on a completely unrelated note, does anyone know how fast a theoretical new system bus of a G4 could be? Are we going to be stuck at 167Mhz as long as the CPU is a G4?

 

[DavPeanut]

Originally posted by ffakr
... and no, the 970 at .09 micron will NOT scale to 6.5 GHz.

I wouldn't be to sure. I had said can scale. I meant like in 1-3 years. Intel can't do it very well because they are on 130 nm

 

[DavPeanut]

Re: 970 in the PowerBook

Originally posted by hasapi
I checked the power figures from IBM the 970 @ 1.2GHz draws 19W, the 1GHz G4 (current PowerBook) draws 30W.

DP PBook!!!!!!!!

 

[scem0]

Re: Re: Timeline speculation

Originally posted by hitman
Also, on a completely unrelated note, does anyone know how fast a theoretical new system bus of a G4 could be? Are we going to be stuck at 167Mhz as long as the CPU is a G4?

Most probably, but 167 isn't slow. It just isn't 'quad-pumped' like
other intel's pentium 4, etc. Maybe apple will 'quad-pump' the
next rendision of the G4.

btw, 4 * 167 = 668 😉😀

 

[iJon]

Re: Re: Re: Timeline speculation

Originally posted by scem0
Most probably, but 167 isn't slow. It just isn't 'quad-pumped' like
other intel's pentium 4, etc. Maybe apple will 'quad-pump' the
next rendision of the G4.

btw, 4 * 167 = 668 😉😀

what do you mean by quad pump? sounds interesting.

iJon

 

[job]

then what about the rumored 900Mhz bus (or was it 800Mhz?) of the 970?

that isn't quad-pumped is it?

in that case, what is holding moto back from producing a chip archetecture which could support say, a 200Mhz bus, or a "true" DDR bus?

is the 533Mhz bus on most intel motherboards the "4-pumped" speed you are talking about?

 

[szark]

The bus on the 970 is a DDR bus according to the Ars Technica article.

450 MHz actual clock rate * 2 = 900 MHz bus.



The 533 MHz bus on a P4 is a QDR (quad-pumped) bus.

133 MHz actual clock rate * 4 = 533 MHz bus.

Originally posted by hitman
in that case, what is holding moto back from producing a chip archetecture which could support say, a 200Mhz bus, or a "true" DDR bus?

That is one of the greatest unsolved mysteries of the universe... 😀

 

[dudemeister]

Re: Timeline speculation

Originally posted by Rocketman
The initial market will be server farms where the processor and bus speed is hyper-critical. And commands value.

This is Apple's first step into true enterprise space. It will be priced accordingly.

Rocketman

Thank you!! My point exactly from the very beginning!!

 

[-hh]

Originally posted by scem0
These are logical assumptions, but I think it would benifit apple
to have all 3 being 970's. But those are logically speculated
and I wouldn't be suprised it they were very close to what Apple
ends up releasing.

I agree that it would benefit Apple to get the G4 out of the PowerMac lineup entirely. But from a business risk-management standpoint, I simply suspect that its not going to happen.

FWIW, one of the cues I'm using is the one rumor report that two motherboard designs went out for bid. Odds are that they represent the "lean forward" (aggressive) and "high confidence" (low risk/conservative) designs for what they see coming down the pipeline.

If they keep a G4 in the stable, this can fulfill the role of the low- risk architecture to keep the supply pipeline from going completely empty ("shipping today", etc), and let the other two designs both be a bit more aggressive (risk taking).

FWIW, it has also crossed my mind that such a strategy would also help consume whatever chip delivery contracts Apple has with Motorola, although I'd say that the iMac (and PB) should be normally expected to able to do this on its own, but there's probably other chip/components suppliers other than Moto that Apple has to worry about.


-hh