970 Ready for Production?

[bigdog]

G4?

Well, if you ask anyone who pre-ordered G4/500 from Apple at the time, it really was months away.

Apple said they could deliver, because Motorola jumped the timeline and said the G4 was ready. It ended up not being ready in stable quantities and Apple was left with these pre-orders for 400-500MHz machines and had to knock them down to 350-450MHz machines. Not good.

Originally posted by rog
While I hope this is all true, when was the last time a rumor site got something this big right many months ahead of time. I remember when the G4 came out in 8-99 that it took many people by surprise because everyone thought it was months away and were only expecting a speedbump for the B&W towers. Also, there were even more reports like this about the impending G5 back in late 2001, that were supposedly coming any day and we all know what happened with that hope.

 

[pgwalsh]

Originally posted by Abstract
Altivec or not, I'm one of those people who thinks that Apple should drop Motorola regardless.

I don't know if they can add Altivec to a G3, but I don't really care either. If you stick a 1.5GHz G3 into an iBook, I'd buy one. Its only meant as Apple's cheap, lightweight machine anyway, so if I can't take advantage of Altivec, then no biggie. Plus, 1.5-1.8GHz would be blazing fast.

I'm with you on this one....

I don't think Apple will ever lower it's prices to compete with the PC Market. I don't think they consider themselves as part of that market. They're nose is up in the air. I believe Steve prides himself on being able to sell machines for higher margins than any of his competitors. My understand is Apple makes 40% to 50% margins on the PowerMacs. I believe the rest of the industry is making 10% to 15%.

If they lowered the prices they'd gain a larger market share, but I think it would drive Steve mad. So they sell fewer machines to make higher margins as apposed to many machines with lower margins. But no one can gurantee an increase in market share, so lowering the prices could be a problem.

IMO Apple will release 970 machines asap. PM sales have been slow in the past couple of years. I don't think the machines are selling well right now, but I don't know.

 

[ultrafiel]

Thinking

Ok, I've been thinking about the 970 lately, and have noticed some observations of non-mac people. First off when ever I hear someone talk about a Mac or ask me what I have (not power users), they always say G4. Just G4! They don't say oh, you have a dual a 1 Ghz Quicksilver, or a 400 Mhz AGP, it is just G4. They percieve it to be fast, and don't know the fine details. Whereas for a Pentium 4 they always have to add the clock speed. Therefore Apple has done ok with marking the G4 to the general public. If fact I've asked people specifics on their macs and they don't have a clue, then I ask the color Blue/silver/mirror door, and they still seem clueless. Anyway, about the 970 naming it G5 would be ok, but I think they should figure something else to name it. They should also market it it like crazy, because this could easily be the best selling mac ever. I plan on buying one, maybe not right away, but this year, or early next. If Apple doesn't go 970, they will kill themselves. If they go Intel they will still sell machines higher, and people won't see a difference in getting the same chip from Dell except for price. If they stay with the G4 they will continue to stagnate. It has to be the 970 or bust. I expect xServes and Towers to get them first obviously.

 

[Awimoway]

Originally posted by pgwalsh
I'm with you on this one....

I don't think Apple will ever lower it's prices to compete with the PC Market. I don't think they consider themselves as part of that market. They're nose is up in the air. I believe Steve prides himself on being able to sell machines for higher margins than any of his competitors. My understand is Apple makes 40% to 50% margins on the PowerMacs. I believe the rest of the industry is making 10% to 15%.

If they lowered the prices they'd gain a larger market share, but I think it would drive Steve mad. So they sell fewer machines to make higher margins as apposed to many machines with lower margins. But no one can gurantee an increase in market share, so lowering the prices could be a problem.

My initial reaction is that as Apple becomes, increasingly, a software company, lowering hardware prices and expanding the customer base would be a good move. But 40-50%! That's hard to make up with current software offerings. Not everyone does pro-level video editing after all.

 

[phampton81]

Can someone confirm these 40-50% margin statements? I am curious as to the validity of this.

 

[BenRoethig]

Originally posted by Abstract
Altivec or not, I'm one of those people who thinks that Apple should drop Motorola regardless.

I don't know if they can add Altivec to a G3, but I don't really care either. If you stick a 1.5GHz G3 into an iBook, I'd buy one. Its only meant as Apple's cheap, lightweight machine anyway, so if I can't take advantage of Altivec, then no biggie. Plus, 1.5-1.8GHz would be blazing fast.

Isn't there rumored to be a G3 Sahara II with the VMX unit from the 970?

 

[macphoria]

It is true, if G3 can get its processor speed into Ghz range, I think it will go toe to toe with earlier G4's. This could be the way to go unless IBM implements their own SIMD into future G3.

But of course, advanced G3 will not be in people's mind once G5/IBM 970 comes out later this year. I can't wait to see the performance on IBM 970 equipped Power Mac and how Panther will run. I expect some good things happening with Macs this year.

Unless, of course, IBM 970 equipped Mac gets pushed till next year. Then I imagine this board will be showered with angry and disappointed posts.

 

[pgwalsh]

Originally posted by Awimoway
My initial reaction is that as Apple becomes, increasingly, a software company, lowering hardware prices and expanding the customer base would be a good move. But 40-50%! That's hard to make up with current software offerings. Not everyone does pro-level video editing after all.

Well, Apple certainly is a software company... Most of the hardware (not sure about the chipset) is produced by third parties and then Apple makes it look good. However, if you're making those kinds of margins on Hardware, that would be hard to let go of. However, I think the OS stands on it's own. Same with the iLife software.

Apple can get the pro market, but not the game enthusiast market. The 970 will appeal in the low end server market and pro market. Gamers will never go Apple because they can't tweak the systems. However, if third parties could produce Apple compatible systems then people could tweak their systems and that could change the market.

I know a few developers that would switch, but they don't like the price/performance ratio. A lot of these developers want a cheap, but fairly fast machine. I think many people want this. It's something Apple doesn't offer.

 

[mcs37]

Re: Heaven in September?

Originally posted by bikertwin
So does this mean that, come September, we'll all be in heaven?

--970 Hardware
--Panther OS X 10.3
--Final Cut Pro 4
--DVD Studio Pro 2

I can't wait! I am still hoping for a dual 970 17" PowerBook. I refuse to believe Apple will not release a dual 970 17" PB this January. They have plenty of area to spare inside that massive laptop. Just imagine the insane power of a 17" PB, dual 970 @ 1.5 GHz, 1 GB RAM, USB 2.0, SuperDrive, Airport Extreme.... mmmmm I'm drooling already.

I still hope for a built-in HDTV tuner. But I know that's a long shot, as is the booze-powered fuel cell to power it for 10+ hours.

 

[Mr. Anderson]

Originally posted by j33pd0g
I agree. And I am really excited too! Plus I got burned with rushing out to get the first g4s when they came out (I got the "350 Yikes") and then they discontinued that like 3 months later and started with the AGP motherboards. If these rumors are true I think I'll wait to buy a 970 mac until they have been well tested by the mac community. For now I'll settle for a dual 1.25 and I will like it.

On a side note: My "Yikes" has lasted 4 years and is still running like a top. My friend has gone through 3 peecees in that time frame.

Ha, I got the 450 Sawtooth, first day they came out! Wasn't too disappointed, but a dual processor would have been better. And there was that whole fiasco of Apple's not delivering the first orders, cancelling all outstanding orders, asking for more money and then capitulating.....what a nightmare that was. I hope it doens't happen again.

D

 

[minux]

Ok, these are my predictions based on the information, and speculation I have received or concluded upon:

Apple has never put in a new CPU into a portable for at least six months, let alone ship it in less then six months.

Also, the 970 in its current state, is not for portables, in no shape or form.

The G4 has MUCH life in it, specifically when personal computing is concerned. It is more expensive then the G3, but when iApps are concerned it really shows why Altivec is important, and why the increased memory performance matters. Apple's new cooling process for the G4 shows much promise in terms of portable computing. It shows enough promise for Apple to beginning designing and testing dual processor motherboards in the Portables. If any such design were to be implemented it would start with Apple's brainchild laptop the PB 15", then make its way to the other portables. If dual CPUs are released they will not be available until the Spring of next year.

Do not be surprised to see the G5 go only into a high level PM in its initial run. Additionally, do not be surprised to see the low end PM sporting a G4 for some time to come. The IBM's production can not match the demand for the G5, nor can the price tag of the G5 find its way into many consumers pockets.

The G3 has MUCH life in it, specifically, with Education. It is cheap, verbose, and rather quick. The iBook is Apple's best selling portable EVER, and for good reason. Apple will be using the G3 in the iBook for at least another one and a half years. Do not expect the iBook to switch processors until the Winter of next year. Though the Summer of next year is when Apple will have working prototypes of either a new form of the G3, using another embedded processor, or using the new G4 low heat consumption CPUs. The iBook will see moderate performance upgrades before it goes to a new CPU, a better video card, AP Ex, blue tooth, ect. The last G3 based versions of the iBook will be running at about 1.5ghz.

Do not even begin to believe you will see the G5 in a portable for a while to come.

The 970 will not begin shipping until the fall of this year at earliest. With the announcement there will be many other annoucenments to follow, AGP 8X, a faster PCI bus, faster ram, ect. Though AGP 8X is not to be expected until the next revision of the PM after it switches CPUs, due to the added price, the higher demand on the bus of the system, and some glitches with older AGP cards (not too much of a concern for Apple though).

OSXver.64bit is not ready for any release, currently it is much worse then 10.0.1 was. It is able to run, but then again, so was 10.0.1. Apple engineers are working around the clock, but the beta must become a Gold version before any release of a new OS is available to the public. Specifically, since Pro users do not want to dick around with a new 3k and up machine just to get it to boot.


Mike

 

[pgwalsh]

Nice post Mike...

I'm thinking the 970 comes with a new look. Can't imagine it taking on the look of the Xserve. There's already PC boxes with that look. Any ideas?

 

[Rufus]

Typical margins for Apple are more like 28% on towers. The iMac was tighter than that for a long time, but I'm sure thats relaxed somewhat.

Margins for typical PC companies aren't really that far from that number. By typical, I mean HP, Dell or IBM. Gateway runs tighter than that, but they're also in pretty bad trouble. eMachines and the like have very small margins, but they also have very little research and development costs.

Where Apple can not compete whatsoever is against home built PCs. I built a very high end (at the time, one year ago) PC for $1200. I still consider my Mac to be a far better experience per dollar spent. I don't think any of us want Apple to be competing in that market.

The computer industry in general is not a fun place to be. Margins are far, far tighter than almost any other retail business (except gasoline). I worked in a grocery as a teenager and couldn't believe that their typical markup over the wholesale cost (including delivery) was 100%.

 

[porovaara]

Originally posted by phampton81
Can someone confirm these 40-50% margin statements? I am curious as to the validity of this.

Apple had a 28% margin accross the board last year. iPods had by far the highest margin of any apple product, so i would expect powermac margins to be in the 21-23% range.

 

[Macpoops]

Originally posted by minux
Ok, these are my predictions based on the information, and speculation I have received or concluded upon:

Apple has never put in a new CPU into a portable for at least six months, let alone ship it in less then six months.

Also, the 970 in its current state, is not for portables, in no shape or form.

The G4 has MUCH life in it, specifically when personal computing is concerned. It is more expensive then the G3, but when iApps are concerned it really shows why Altivec is important, and why the increased memory performance matters. Apple's new cooling process for the G4 shows much promise in terms of portable computing. It shows enough promise for Apple to beginning designing and testing dual processor motherboards in the Portables. If any such design were to be implemented it would start with Apple's brainchild laptop the PB 15", then make its way to the other portables. If dual CPUs are released they will not be available until the Spring of next year.

Do not be surprised to see the G5 go only into a high level PM in its initial run. Additionally, do not be surprised to see the low end PM sporting a G4 for some time to come. The IBM's production can not match the demand for the G5, nor can the price tag of the G5 find its way into many consumers pockets.

The G3 has MUCH life in it, specifically, with Education. It is cheap, verbose, and rather quick. The iBook is Apple's best selling portable EVER, and for good reason. Apple will be using the G3 in the iBook for at least another one and a half years. Do not expect the iBook to switch processors until the Winter of next year. Though the Summer of next year is when Apple will have working prototypes of either a new form of the G3, using another embedded processor, or using the new G4 low heat consumption CPUs. The iBook will see moderate performance upgrades before it goes to a new CPU, a better video card, AP Ex, blue tooth, ect. The last G3 based versions of the iBook will be running at about 1.5ghz.

Do not even begin to believe you will see the G5 in a portable for a while to come.

The 970 will not begin shipping until the fall of this year at earliest. With the announcement there will be many other annoucenments to follow, AGP 8X, a faster PCI bus, faster ram, ect. Though AGP 8X is not to be expected until the next revision of the PM after it switches CPUs, due to the added price, the higher demand on the bus of the system, and some glitches with older AGP cards (not too much of a concern for Apple though).

OSXver.64bit is not ready for any release, currently it is much worse then 10.0.1 was. It is able to run, but then again, so was 10.0.1. Apple engineers are working around the clock, but the beta must become a Gold version before any release of a new OS is available to the public. Specifically, since Pro users do not want to dick around with a new 3k and up machine just to get it to boot.


Mike

You have a few flaws in your arguement. Number 1. Apple HAS released a new processor in both desktop and Laptop. A few Processors that were released for a laptop were simultaniously released in a Desktop. Check your facts. Just for re-enforcement

August 1996- 603e Introduced in PM 5300 LC and PB5300 series
November 1997- Both Powermac g3 and Powerbook g3 introduced.

Number 2. How is the 970 in its current state, is not for portables, in no shape or form?
At the same speed as the current laptop g4s it consumes half as much power and gives off dramatically less heat. But i guess that means it is not ready for mobile release. Considering it is already more suited to the mobile platform then the G4 is.

Number 3. OS X was written as 64 bit clean. Which means all that would be required to make use of the 64 bit processor would be a simple recompile. NOT a complete rewrite of the OS.

This is not the windows/intel world. The same rules do not apply. It does not take another 6 months to ready a RISC processor for mobile use. And it does not take an entire rewrite of an OS to take advantage of 64 bit. Why? Cause Apple programmers used forthought when the designed OS X, because it was seen as the OS for the next 10 years. Programers saw their faults in the original design and adjusted the new design to prevent those faults and allow for easy Transition to new technology. This was unheard of in the early years of computing. no one knew how the industry would develop and how fast it would evolve. The industry has learned that taking sort cuts and not planning for the possible introduction can be disaterous. Look at the Y2K bug. That was all based on a programmer taking a shortcut and it could have literally been the end of the world.

 

[iSmell]

2GHz G3 Sahara = urban legend

The rumor of G3s running at 2GHz at IBM is false. It started in another discussion board, I think on this website, in what seems to be a simple typo or misreading by a poster. People read the post, got excited, then didn't read follow ups where the original poster pointed out his own mistake and somebody linked to a page at IBM with specs for the Sahara.

The G3 may have life, but it's not running at 2GHz right now.





my two cents

 

[pgwalsh]

I got my 40% to 50% figures from a director at Apple. Could be wrong, but that's what was said for the PowerMacs.

Also your 23% could be the average for all products. I heard the margins on the iBook were very small.

 

[Datazoid]

I just have one question about this article.....who the f*@! would vote negative on this??? Just clicking to be contrary? Negative on everything? Is your life that terrible??????? Enlighten me....what about this news is NEGATIVE?????

7 Negatives currently....outrageous....

OK....calming down now...

 

[nagromme]

IF these rumors are true, I'd expect low clock speeds yo be the ones that come early--and then hitting 1.8 MHz in the fall as always expected. Which is fine, especially with dual and quad CPUs. AND it might make 970 portables hit this year! I hate to dream, but...

Can anyone confirm whether I'm crazy about something? I swear that when the G4 came out, all rumors and reports were talking about major delays and the G4 being bumped to the following YEAR. Doom and gloom on all fronts. Than Apple shipped a new G4 tower in quantity against all predictions, containing a chip that, by the rumors, wasn't even CLOSE to being manufactured yet. Am I wrong? Is that what happened?

(Here's a thought--hypothetical IBM G3+AltiVec chip branded as G5 for Apple's low-end this fall... 970 branded as G7 or G70 for the high-end.)

 

[blueflame]

all i know is this

I know that if Apple released 970 processors in their powerboks anytime soom, there is going to be alot of pissed off 17 inch owners who are barely getting theirs now. I am one of them, if they make everyhting new, right when i get mine, im not going to be happy, true, it would be good for apple, but stil...
Andreas

 

[GeneR]

Hate to be a skeptic BUT...

I'm going to reserve judgment until I see it and what it can actually do (i.e. what's its speed relative to the G4, what its MHz/GHz will be, etc.) I'm so tired of waiting I'm a little beyond hopeful at this stage of the game.

But I hope it's true nonetheless...

 

[zigi]

970 Development

With IBM driving the development of the 970 for themselves ? and their Blades as much for anyone else (Apple), we should see a much faster development cycle. The dev cycle of the G4 was poor, and Moto didn't seem interested in accelerating or even trying to help Apple at all. At least with IBM using the processors in their own products we should see Apple reap the benefits of using a new non-exclusive chip from one of the big two/three manufacturers. This can only be a good thing. Here's hopin'!!

 

[pgwalsh]

Re: 970 Development

Originally posted by zigi
With IBM driving the development of the 970 for themselves ? and their Blades as much for anyone else (Apple), we should see a much faster development cycle. The dev cycle of the G4 was poor, and Moto didn't seem interested in accelerating or even trying to help Apple at all. At least with IBM using the processors in their own products we should see Apple reap the benefits of using a new non-exclusive chip from one of the big two/three manufacturers. This can only be a good thing. Here's hopin'!!

There a lot of competition for the low end server market between Dell, IBM, and Sun. This is good for Apple because they will benefit from this competition. Right now I believe Dell is the performance/cost price leader, then IBM and last Sun (Apple wasn't represented in the Forbes article). IBM has incentive because there's stiff competition and it's a growing market. However, I believe the servers that are competitive are running x86, but I'm not sure. If the PPC 970/Linux solution is good then this will reflect well for Apples' future. I wonder if Apple would ever let IBM sell OS X Server through IBM. That would make things interesting.

 

[DGFan]

Originally posted by minux

Also, the 970 in its current state, is not for portables, in no shape or form.

The G4 has MUCH life in it, specifically when personal computing is concerned.

I disagree. At 1.2Ghz and cooler (not to mention faster) than a 1GHz G4 it would be a dream in a laptop.

Not to mention that I refuse to buy a PB until they get the heat problem solved. A cooler CPU would go a long way toward helping that. From reading reviews and customer opinions it seems that I am not the only one who feels this way.

 

[ffakr]

take one for the team..

Apple should mimic the current setups... single/dual/dual, and cut prices... even if ever so slightly.

Even if profits were razor thin, they sell boat loads of the things. They could come out and say... 'not only are we shipping the fastest desktops in the world, but we are doing it for less than ever before'. It would be a PR coup of amazing proportions. Smack down the 'cost' critics and the 'performance' critics at the same time.

This would also cause a big jump in back end profits...
New towers would lead to increased market share... increased market share would lead to increased sales of Other apple products and services. Even if they lost $10 on every G4 tower, they'd sell more peripherals, more software (especially the pricy 'Pro' apps), and they sell more OS upgrades down the road. Hell, a few of the tower owners might even buy into .Mac.