Why does HBO care if you subscribe through the cable company or someone else for their service as long as they are getting the same (or more) amount of money?
HBO wouldn't, but I doubt the cut they get via cable/sat would stay the same. HBO selling direct to customers means it is less valuable to cable/sat providers. If HBO is less valuable to cable/sat providers then they will get paid less by cable/sat providers. If HBO gets paid less money they will care.
Why does it matter how many there are? If there are 100 people that want to pay $16 for HBO GO on its own, that's just extra revenue. If they drop their cable HBO subscription, that's break even (or make slightly more depening on the cut that Apple, etc. takes.)
First off, its not 'extra' money. Selling HBO GO directly to customers will cause HBO to:
1. most likely get a smaller piece of the pie from cable/sat providers.
2. spend more money on administrative costs (as billing, customer service, etc., will have to be done in house).
3. spend money advertising HBO GO as a new service.
4. spend more money on advertising in general since they can no longer count on their cable/sat partners for helping shoulder that cost.
5. spend money on building out their streaming infrastructure (because right now it's pretty fragile and crash happy).
6. prepare to eventually spend Netflix-level of cash (if not more) on bandwidth (which includes dealing with some of the same companies they just burned by selling HBO GO direct to consumers).
7. Other misc costs that I don't know about because I don't do this sort of thing for a living.
Secondly, the size of the customer base most certainly factors into the decision making process and cord cutters aren't a very big demographic yet.
Again, why is that bad for HBO. They potentially make more money from HBO GO direct subscribers! And they have more leverage to increase their cut from cable/sat providers.
HBO selling direct to customers gives them LESS leverage and LESS value with cable/sat providers, not more.
I'm glad you used the word "potentially" because that is a key word here since nothing is guaranteed. There is risk. HBO is weighing the risk of how much profit they are making now vs how much profit they could potentially make by selling HBO GO direct to consumers. Once that
potential starts becoming worth the
risk in the eyes Time Warner (HBO's parent company) then HBO will move forward with that plan. Three things can happen and only one of them is good (they make less money, they make the same amount of money or they make more money) . Some would say a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.
Didn't seem to matter when HBO moved to satellite providers!
Apples to pears comparison. Satellite was never a competitor to the entire distribution system like Internet streaming is plus HBO signed a big contract knowing exactly how much money it would make. Selling HBO GO directly to consumers is more akin being a door to door salesman vs having an office job with a fat, guaranteed salary. Sure, the salesman potentially can make more than the guy on salary but the salesman also takes on a lot more risk as well. And, like I keep saying, once the projected potential is worth the risk in the eyes of HBO/TW they'll make their move.