Other A Foldable iPhone will Flop

[Goodison]

I enjoy the heated debate. I wouldn't spend $2500 on one. Would rather spend the money on actual hobbies.

New tech ARE hobbies to an awful lot of people.

 

[bushman4]

Hard to say as we have never seen an Apple foldable iPhone. Build quality, weight,screen creases, internal specs , battery etc will all be a factor whether to buy or not to buy

 

[Silvestru Hosszu]

You make statements without evidence to back them up. No, the AVP wasn’t always a precursor to glasses. You don’t know. And no, if the AVP was lighter and half the price, that doesn’t mean it would be successful. ZERO evidence for that. Evidence is to the contrary: META Quest which is much cheaper and has many of the features hasn’t captured a large market either.

I have stated from day one that no matter the weight or price, people will not buy them or use them because they are flawed: they don’t offer enough value to people. That is what I propose is the reason why the VR product category will be stuck in niche markets.

From what we do know, Apple created a product, the AVP, that is VR/AR. It brought in spatial computing and has decent processing power. It has failed. It failed to meet Apple’s meagre sales expectations. Failed with content. Failed with Developers. Now rumours that Apple is pulling future development from it.

Glasses will only do a fraction of what the AVP can do and regardless of any functionality limits, will also fail because: it’s also flawed in that it won’t offer enough value to people.

I do agree with almost everything you just wrote here about AVP.
I’m also a tech nerd, had VR headset and after the novelty factor wore off (less than a week) I almost never touched it. My friend’s kids loved it when visiting me (that is until motion sickness set in).

I also would have agreed with you on foldables 4 or 5 years ago. But technology advanced a lot in the mean time and the drawback are much less now then say 2020.

And lets not forget that at the very beginning smartphones were a big compromise.
Bigger, much heavier and with significantly worse battery than the contemporary feature phones. And the OSes were absolutely rudimentary and a pain to use (just remembering Windows CE gives me headaches). But things were not standing still, the smartphone got more and more capable and although battery life and heft never challenged old phone (say Nokia 6310i) the benefit hugely outweighted the objective drawbacks and here we are almost everyone on this planet has one.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

I do agree with almost everything you just wrote here about AVP.
I’m also a tech nerd, had VR headset and after the novelty factor wore off (less than a week) I almost never touched it. My friend’s kids loved it when visiting me (that is until motion sickness set in).

I also would have agreed with you on foldables 4 or 5 years ago. But technology advanced a lot in the mean time and the drawback are much less now then say 2020.

And lets not forget that at the very beginning smartphones were a big compromise.
Bigger, much heavier and with significantly worse battery than the contemporary feature phones. And the OSes were absolutely rudimentary and a pain to use (just remembering Windows CE gives me headaches). But things were not standing still, the smartphone got more and more capable and although battery life and heft never challenged old phone (say Nokia 6310i) the benefit hugely outweighted the objective drawbacks and here we are almost everyone on this planet has one.

Almost everyone does have a smartphone, you’re right. This raises an important issue. It will be very difficult to unseat the traditional smartphone with a convertible design just like it’s difficult to unseat a desktop operating system and desktop or laptop computer with convertible versions. The reason is simple: there isn’t enough value to someone for a convertible device for them to bother.

 

[bobtamboo]

I'll definitely buy an apple foldable, whether its first gen one is a different matter, most likely from 2nd gen onwards. Hope they can get a good IPXX rating like the new pixel fold

 

[Silvestru Hosszu]

Almost everyone does have a smartphone, you’re right. This raises an important issue. It will be very difficult to unseat the traditional smartphone with a convertible design just like it’s difficult to unseat a desktop operating system and desktop or laptop computer with convertible versions. The reason is simple: there isn’t enough value to someone for a convertible device for them to bother.

Totally agree. But 20 some years ago every one had a desktop and a dumb/feature phone. Today not so.
Lets agree that in the near future (3-5 years) foldables won’t be anything but a niche. Afterwards … who knows?

 

[Zensō]

Lets agree that in the near future (3-5 years) foldables won’t be anything but a niche. Afterwards … who knows?

I think it depends upon whether or not folding screens are ever improved enough to be on par with our existing glass screens. The current screens are atrocious and will continue to be a non-starter for many.

 

[Silvestru Hosszu]

I think it depends upon whether or not folding screens are ever improved enough to be on par with our existing glass screens. The current screens are atrocious and will continue to be a non-starter for many.

Essentially you’re right. I won’t say that the screen is atrocious, I am a Galaxy Fold 4 owner but it is clear that there is a long(ish) way for the foldables to contest the position occupied by slab phones today. Will it ever happen? I honestly don’t know.

 

[i007]

If Apple doesn’t release a fold this coming cycle I’m out. When androids start to look cool and Apple basically hasn’t done their typical “we’re not first, but we perfected it” move…..it may be time to go. Been hanging around for 17ish years. I don’t want to carry two devices when there are modern solutions

 

[Pbwallstreet]

If Apple doesn’t release a fold this coming cycle I’m out. When androids start to look cool and Apple basically hasn’t done their typical “we’re not first, but we perfected it” move…..it may be time to go. Been hanging around for 17ish years. I don’t want to carry two devices when there are modern solutions

Good call. You should leave Apple now, why wait? Because you want things that look cool...

Can you DM at that point in the future when you buy a $2500 Apple Fold and then 2 months later realize that you don't use it unfolded and want to sell it? I'll offer you $173 for it at that point.

 

[Silvestru Hosszu]

As we have now a competitor for AVP, the Samsung Galaxy XR, i think it will be a flop although it cost half the price of the AVP.

 

[i007]

Good call. You should leave Apple now, why wait? Because you want things that look cool...

Can you DM at that point in the future when you buy a $2500 Apple Fold and then 2 months later realize that you don't use it unfolded and want to sell it? I'll offer you $173 for it at that point.

Never mentioned anything about “looking cool” for the sake of showing off. The conclusion of what I wrote, which is the last sentence. I’d like a device that is a hybrid of a small ipad and phone…..for function.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Never mentioned anything about “looking cool” for the sake of showing off. The conclusion of what I wrote, which is the last sentence. I’d like a device that is a hybrid of a small ipad and phone…..for function.

Why do you want that.

 

[bushman4]

Apple has had years to perfect this product
Lets see if it lives up to expectstions

 

[i007]

Why do you want that.

There’s no way you’re not trolling at this point. I said it in my original post. “I don’t want to carry two devices.” Translation: I’d like to carry one.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

There’s no way you’re not trolling at this point. I said it in my original post. “I don’t want to carry two devices.” Translation: I’d like to carry one.

Not trolling. Getting to the "Why" of something in product management is difficult but a central part of how products are developed.

I appreciate your position... you don't want to carry two devices. That's a valid use case on paper. I want to go further though. Why don't you want to carry two devices? I'll play this out...

I'm assuming you, the User, has a bag. And you carry other things in that bag. And you travel or commute or whatever. If you already have a bag with stuff in it, then it isn't an issue to have a thin slate device like an iPad in there.

But if say... you don't want to have a bag... then you have more of a use case when it comes to an all in one device...

But why do you want an "all in one device"? What is that doing for you? And when is it doing that for you?

For instance, let's assume that you want a larger screen to consume content (view social media posts, shop online...). And you also want to do productivity: create content for social media, or even create and edit documents and presentations and videos and images. Will a folded out smartphone serve these use cases for you in comparison to a dedicated tablet and/or dedicated smartphone?

Content creation, for instance, on a dedicated tablet will generally be better in many ways... particularly that it's an "all in one" device as a tablet and laptop with magic keyboard, multi-tasking operating system, precise 1 pixel input with trackpad, Pencil input and multi-touch... content creation is still possible on a smartphone but a larger screen is nice.

The folded out smartphone will not have many of the power features that the dedicated tablet will have. If you want a keyboard, mouse, etc. for it you will need to carry those completely separately. And the software will have some limitations due to screen size, power constraints, etc.

The screen will also be smaller than even the smallest iPad Mini, and its aspect ratio somewhat boxy.

One handed use is also generally not happening when the smartphone is folded out.

And then the Why... about why does a large screen smartphone needs to fold out... particularly as the web and mobile apps are mature in their design for a smartphone screen.

People gravitate to what is easy and efficient in many respects. Smartphones are easy and efficient. A folded out smartphone is going to have to compete with a dedicated smartphone for your attention and use as it will also have to compete with dedicated tablets. It has to be better in a number of ways or it won't get used much.

 

[Kjabean]

I miss my folding phones, I have had a bunch of razrs and switched to the air this year. It does matter.. it folds in such a tiny space it us like a wallet and you can carry it much easier then it sticking out your back pocket. You never worry about it falling out your pocket like slab phones. I miss that.. I don’t miss the questionable durability though. Every one I have had has lasted about three years and something breaks.

 

[James6s]

Is there even demand for foldable phones away from the tech community? I never see anyone using one in public & I don’t know anyone who owns or even wants one, wether they use a Samsung, iPhone or whatever.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Is there even demand for foldable phones away from the tech community? I never see anyone using one in public & I don’t know anyone who owns or even wants one, wether they use a Samsung, iPhone or whatever.

My experience as well. On paper, foldables have less than 2% global marketshare of the smartphone market. Actual usage stats (how many sold are sitting collecting dust) is difficult to come by.

 

[FootballIsLife]

My experience as well. On paper, foldables have less than 2% global marketshare of the smartphone market. Actual usage stats (how many sold are sitting collecting dust) is difficult to come by.

I see many foldable phones in public. I have encountered a great many of them.

 

[KnightPawn]

One of my cousins has a fold, another and a friend have the flips.

I don't think they're for everyone and that's OK but I think a folding phone would be ideal for me. I only really use my iPad Pro (12.9) for consuming media around the house and while it's a fantastic size for that purpose I'd have just as much benefit with an all in one device. A drawback being I couldn't use my phone whilst watching something on the iPad but it's a worthy sacrifice to me if it means I have a larger screen to watch media on whilst I'm out and about.

 

[CrysisDeu]

Not trolling. Getting to the "Why" of something in product management is difficult but a central part of how products are developed.

I appreciate your position... you don't want to carry two devices. That's a valid use case on paper. I want to go further though. Why don't you want to carry two devices? I'll play this out...

I'm assuming you, the User, has a bag. And you carry other things in that bag. And you travel or commute or whatever. If you already have a bag with stuff in it, then it isn't an issue to have a thin slate device like an iPad in there.

But if say... you don't want to have a bag... then you have more of a use case when it comes to an all in one device...

But why do you want an "all in one device"? What is that doing for you? And when is it doing that for you?

For instance, let's assume that you want a larger screen to consume content (view social media posts, shop online...). And you also want to do productivity: create content for social media, or even create and edit documents and presentations and videos and images. Will a folded out smartphone serve these use cases for you in comparison to a dedicated tablet and/or dedicated smartphone?

Content creation, for instance, on a dedicated tablet will generally be better in many ways... particularly that it's an "all in one" device as a tablet and laptop with magic keyboard, multi-tasking operating system, precise 1 pixel input with trackpad, Pencil input and multi-touch... content creation is still possible on a smartphone but a larger screen is nice.

The folded out smartphone will not have many of the power features that the dedicated tablet will have. If you want a keyboard, mouse, etc. for it you will need to carry those completely separately. And the software will have some limitations due to screen size, power constraints, etc.

The screen will also be smaller than even the smallest iPad Mini, and its aspect ratio somewhat boxy.

One handed use is also generally not happening when the smartphone is folded out.

And then the Why... about why does a large screen smartphone needs to fold out... particularly as the web and mobile apps are mature in their design for a smartphone screen.

People gravitate to what is easy and efficient in many respects. Smartphones are easy and efficient. A folded out smartphone is going to have to compete with a dedicated smartphone for your attention and use as it will also have to compete with dedicated tablets. It has to be better in a number of ways or it won't get used much.

Bro just let us have a folding phone to watch youtube or read some posts in a bigger screen when I don’t have my iPad. Not everyone needs to be a producer.

 

[ZiBart]

Not trolling. Getting to the "Why" of something in product management is difficult but a central part of how products are developed.

I appreciate your position... you don't want to carry two devices. That's a valid use case on paper. I want to go further though. Why don't you want to carry two devices? I'll play this out...

I'm assuming you, the User, has a bag. And you carry other things in that bag. And you travel or commute or whatever. If you already have a bag with stuff in it, then it isn't an issue to have a thin slate device like an iPad in there.

But if say... you don't want to have a bag... then you have more of a use case when it comes to an all in one device...

But why do you want an "all in one device"? What is that doing for you? And when is it doing that for you?

For instance, let's assume that you want a larger screen to consume content (view social media posts, shop online...). And you also want to do productivity: create content for social media, or even create and edit documents and presentations and videos and images. Will a folded out smartphone serve these use cases for you in comparison to a dedicated tablet and/or dedicated smartphone?

Content creation, for instance, on a dedicated tablet will generally be better in many ways... particularly that it's an "all in one" device as a tablet and laptop with magic keyboard, multi-tasking operating system, precise 1 pixel input with trackpad, Pencil input and multi-touch... content creation is still possible on a smartphone but a larger screen is nice.

The folded out smartphone will not have many of the power features that the dedicated tablet will have. If you want a keyboard, mouse, etc. for it you will need to carry those completely separately. And the software will have some limitations due to screen size, power constraints, etc.

The screen will also be smaller than even the smallest iPad Mini, and its aspect ratio somewhat boxy.

One handed use is also generally not happening when the smartphone is folded out.

And then the Why... about why does a large screen smartphone needs to fold out... particularly as the web and mobile apps are mature in their design for a smartphone screen.

People gravitate to what is easy and efficient in many respects. Smartphones are easy and efficient. A folded out smartphone is going to have to compete with a dedicated smartphone for your attention and use as it will also have to compete with dedicated tablets. It has to be better in a number of ways or it won't get used much.

I don't want to carry a bag. I want a device that can be pocketable yet allow a better experience for on the go content consumption (video/photo/text), mild document/spreadsheet work if I need to (not want to), and iPadOS level multitasking. As I get older, larger screens reduce my dependance on readers as well. In times of wanting device minimalism, I leave iPhone at home and I only take my Apple Watch Ultra with cellular (and maybe AirPods).

There are also a couple other routes I would take if it were available:
1. if Apple Watch had the ability to be a standalone iPhone without the need to be paired with an iPhone or an iPhone plan, I would opt for this as well. In this scenario, I would gravitate towards an iPad as secondary device (probably a mini or 11").
2. If Apple allowed the iPad mini to also have standalone iPhone capabilities, it would replace my iPhone and I would use it with my Apple Watch Ultra as needed, depending on my scenario.

 

[Cuesca]

Dude wrote an entire essay on how other people should/shouldn't spend their money...

 

[HuskerNKS]

Dude wrote an entire essay on how other people should/shouldn't spend their money...

And then went on defending why only he could be right for 21 pages...