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Other A Foldable iPhone will Flop

Will you Buy a Foldable iPhone?

  • Yes

  • No

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Ethosik said:
Read the comment chain. My argument was at the point you NEED it, a laptop/tablet/etc will be JUST as easy to carry and much better experience. An example provided was waiting at an airport. It is just as easy and MUCH better experience to take your tablet out of your bag then flip your phone open.
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I disagree entirely. There are plenty of situations where a laptop or tablet isn’t “just as easy” to carry. I’ve listed several earlier, but the one that comes up frequently for me is being somewhere without my iPad, and suddenly I want/need a bigger screen to do something on. The foldable delivers that. I don't carry my iPad with me everywhere I go, and don't want to. I don't carry my iPad with me. I'm often in situations where carrying a bag at all is less than ideal. I am not going to bring a briefcase into a networking reception. I am not going to pull out my iPad and work in the back of an Uber or Cab. If I'm on a crowded subway I'm not pulling out a laptop.

Even if you're right that the iPad will be a "MUCH better experience" (which I also disagree with, there's no reason a foldable can't be just as good as an iPad for the type of things most people use iPads for), it doesn't matter if I don't have the iPad with me when I need the bigger screen. Carrying an iPad/laptop usually means: (1) more weight, (2) another charger, (3) a bag just to hold it, and (4) yet another device to keep charged.

To give an example where it isn't "just as easy to carry": business travel. I already have to bring a laptop for work (in a past job I often had to travel with TWO work laptops - one from my company and one from my client), so why add another device in my briefcase? My bag is already heavy. Plane seats are small, the physical space is cramped, pulling out a laptop and watching a movie or working from a tray table in economy isn't fun. I mean, I'll do it if I have to, but I'd argue a foldable has the potential to be a way superior experience there. And that's before you get into the fact that getting to your bag may be annoying, the TSA hassle, the additional risk of theft/breakage.

I'll agree if I am sitting at my desk or on the couch, and my options are "using foldable" or "using laptop/iPad", I can't think of a situation where I use the foldable. But I'm often not at my desk or on the couch.
 
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Ethosik said:
Read the comment chain. My argument was at the point you NEED it, a laptop/tablet/etc will be JUST as easy to carry and much better experience. An example provided was waiting at an airport. It is just as easy and MUCH better experience to take your tablet out of your bag then flip your phone open.
Click to expand...
You may be overlooking the obvious utility that millions of people will see in this device when they purchase it on launch. You may not have a use case for it, which is fine. You are welcome to say why you will not find it useful. Here is why I will find it useful: I am out and about on my day off and get a work related call that demands getting into the desktop at work to grab some information that can only be accessed off my work desktop. I can already do this from my iphone using Windows remote app but it's miserable using a desktop compressed down to my little screen. I'd already pay for a folding iPhone to solve this issue for me. And frankly i'm considering switching to the upcoming Samsung trifolding phone for even more screen space. Millions will have their own use cases for a folding phone, which is why it will sell well, just like the Fold 7 is selling well. You keep referencing your argument but "the argument from personal incredulity" is a logical fallacy not an argument. The good news is we don't even need to argue. We could just wait to see how well it sells, then you can ask people why they bought it.
 
Pbwallstreet said:
But why? Why would someone buy a compromised smartphone and why do you think all of these people you think will buy it have any need for a tablet?
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Foldables are actually quite common now with android phones and are selling well. Apple is simply following a trend. And in typical Apple fashion, they may be late to the party, but when they finally enter a sector, they usually do it right. And as far as a foldable iphone being a compromised iphone? Compared to what? An iPhone Pro? Of course. But so is the regular iPhone or the new iPhone Air. They both have less camera features and in the case of the super thin iPhone Air a much worse battery… BUT they’re still selling well. Only time will tell how well a foldable iPhone will sell. Yes it’ll be expensive, with probably less camera lenses than a pro iphone… but it’ll fold out to a larger screen which will be better for watching movies, plying games & surfing the web on. This may appeal to a lot of people. Again, we’ll find out next year.
 
Greenmeenie said:
Foldables are actually quite common now with android phones and are selling well. Apple is simply following a trend. And in typical Apple fashion, they may be late to the party, but when they finally enter a sector, they usually do it right. And as far as a foldable iphone being a compromised iphone? Compared to what? An iPhone Pro? Of course. But so is the regular iPhone or the new iPhone Air. They both have less camera features and in the case of the super thin iPhone Air a much worse battery… BUT they’re still selling well. Only time will tell how well a foldable iPhone will sell. Yes it’ll be expensive, with probably less camera lenses than a pro iphone… but it’ll fold out to a larger screen which will be better for watching movies, plying games & surfing the web on. This may appeal to a lot of people. Again, we’ll find out next year.
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Two phones are sandwiched together. Seams, hinges… for anyone who doesn’t want a tablet experience a non-foldable smartphone is the ticket… and it is not clear that there will be a sustainable market moving forward. We are still in early adoption territory with less than 2% of the global smartphone market being foldable.
 
Pbwallstreet said:
Two phones are sandwiched together. Seams, hinges… for anyone who doesn’t want a tablet experience a non-foldable smartphone is the ticket… and it is not clear that there will be a sustainable market moving forward. We are still in early adoption territory with less than 2% of the global smartphone market being foldable.
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Supposedly Apple has solved the “crease” issue in foldable smartphones with the implementation of a LIQUIDMETAL hinge. 🤔 Looks like Apple is finally using that amorphous alloy technology after buying into the company over a decade ago. Again, my original comment was to the original poster who said a foldable iphone is a niche product like the vision pro & won’t sell. Nobody knows for sure, but I seriously doubt that. The vision pro is truly an expensive niche product, while a foldable iphone is still an iphone and therefore by definition, not a niche product. Smartphones are ubiquitous. Literally everyone has one. An expensive foldable iphone may not sell as well as a regular iphone, but I’d bet good money it’ll sell better than the vision pro. Just saying. We shall all find out next year.
 
Greenmeenie said:
Supposedly Apple has solved the “crease” issue in foldable smartphones with the implementation of a LIQUIDMETAL hinge. 🤔 Looks like Apple is finally using that amorphous alloy technology after buying into the company over a decade ago. Again, my original comment was to the original poster who said a foldable iphone is a niche product like the vision pro & won’t sell. Nobody knows for sure, but I seriously doubt that. The vision pro is truly an expensive niche product, while a foldable iphone is still an iphone and therefore by definition, not a niche product. Smartphones are ubiquitous. Literally everyone has one. An expensive foldable iphone may not sell as well as a regular iphone, but I’d bet good money it’ll sell better than the vision pro. Just saying. We shall all find out next year.
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It’s a new category of device, it isn’t just a smartphone anymore.
 
Pbwallstreet said:
Foldable smartphones have less than 2% marketshare globally.
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But that's without Apple offering one. Apple has a global market share of something like 67% of phones sold over $1000 USD. Which means, to date, roughly 2 out of every 3 people potentially interested in a foldable would have to switch OSes to get one, and most people won't consider switching OSes.

It's entirely reasonable that 10% of iPhones sold will be foldables, which would increase the global rate to something like 5%. It's also possible that the fact that Apple makes a foldable (and presumably advertises it heavily) draws attention to the product category and the share of Android foldables rises as well.

And remember, the revenue of these is going to sky high. Assuming 10% of iPhones sold are foldable at a $2000 average selling price, that's like $20-30 billion in additional revenue a year. Which could match all Macs sold (~$30b) or all iPads (~$28 billion). So well worth it for Apple, even at only 10% of iPhones sold. It's still serious revenue even if we drop that to 5% of iPhones sold. I know your point is the foldable "won't be sustainable" but I am pretty sure it will be.

I am not saying the iPhone foldable is guaranteed to be a mass hit, but it's not as simple as "only 2% to date, so no one (relatively speaking) wants one." No one is arguing the foldable will be the #1 selling iPhone, but I think you're seriously underestimating how few (relatively speaking) they have to sell for it to be very worthwhile for Apple. Even if you are right, and Apple just matches the 2% market share foldable have made to date, it's an extra $5 billion in revenue (so like half of annual Apple Watch revenue, or more than Spotify's annual revenue).
 
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surferfb said:
But that's without Apple offering one. Apple has a global market share of something like 67% of phones sold over $1000 USD. Which means, to date, roughly 2 out of every 3 people potentially interested in a foldable would have to switch OSes to get one, and most people won't consider switching OSes.

It's entirely reasonable that 10% of iPhones sold will be foldables, which would increase the global rate to something like 5%. It's also possible that the fact that Apple makes a foldable (and presumably advertises it heavily) draws attention to the product category and the share of Android foldables rises as well.

And remember, the revenue of these is going to sky high. Assuming 10% of iPhones sold are foldable at a $2000 average selling price, that's like $20-30 billion in additional revenue a year. Which could match all Macs sold (~$30b) or all iPads (~$28 billion). So well worth it for Apple, even at only 10% of iPhones sold. It's still serious revenue even if we drop that to 5% of iPhones sold. I know your point is the foldable "won't be sustainable" but I am pretty sure it will be.

I am not saying the iPhone foldable is guaranteed to be a mass hit, but it's not as simple as "only 2% to date, so no one (relatively speaking) wants one."
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It is as simple as that. It’s niche.
 
Pbwallstreet said:
It is as simple as that. It’s niche.
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And my point is, niches can be profitable and sustainable. And the title of the post is "a foldable will flop." Not, "a foldable will be a niche that makes Apple $30 billion a year in extra revenue."
 
If you go back you can see a lot of discussion from my end. Apple doesn't go for niche. Apple wants to be number 1 in each market it enters into and Apple wants large markets. Because they have some products that don't have a lot of marketshare or the majority of the marketshare doesn't mean they don't want to be number 1 and have a large market. That is their intention. Often, their strategy... and all of this has been widely publicized for decades, is to either let others create a market then come in or create the market themselves.

Apple has to spend a lot of money to create and feed and water a new product and we have seen since Jobs left that their R&D skyrocketed but new products didn't (e.g., 10 year development of an Apple car flop). Jobs talked about this a lot, criticizing companies that end up spending so much on R&D with little to show for it, and how marketing ends up taking over. Lessons were learned from John Scully and how they spent lavishly on R&D with little to show for it, and Apple almost went bankrupt.

We exist in the era of Tim Cook: spiked R&D costs, complex product lines, with little new in the way of products. We are using a 40 year old operating system that is MacOS and an 18 year old mobile operating system based on this. The core of their software hasn't changed in decades.

A foldable smartphone, like the AVP, is a me too, niche product that will fail: it will be niche, and follow the early adopters curve. That means it will fade away. Yes, anyone can disagree with me, and that's cool. Time will prove me right or wrong.
 
Apple will do what they always do. Sit out the bleeding edge ideas, watch everyone else make the mistakes, be told they're behind the times then eventually do it when they can do it properly. Or maybe even not bother at all (see touchscreen laptops)

Until they can work out how to prevent fingernail marks, creases and other issues I don't think they'll go there. It needs Scotty to turn up from the future and invent foldable glass, imo, along with his transparent aluminium for a few other applications (besides a giant fish tank)
 
Cloudane said:
Apple will do what they always do. Sit out the bleeding edge ideas, watch everyone else make the mistakes, be told they're behind the times then eventually do it when they can do it properly. Or maybe even not bother at all (see touchscreen laptops)

Until they can work out how to prevent fingernail marks, creases and other issues I don't think they'll go there. It needs Scotty to turn up from the future and invent foldable glass, imo, along with his transparent aluminium for a few other applications (besides a giant fish tank)
Click to expand...

So what was Vision Pro all about then?
 
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Every time I see this thread, I just want to correct the title so it says "A foldable iPhone will flip" because it feels like a much more appropriate word choice. 😐😓
 
Cloudane said:
..... okay usually do

That thing was just too overpriced
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Flawed at a fundamental level. The price is
irrelevant. People don’t want to wear ski goggles and get a cheap imitation of reality. This is the problem with VR and AR mixed in. The value is not there for people. Just early adopters and nerds.
 
Goodison said:
Many people have. You’ve just got your fingers in your ears and refusing to listen ffs.
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No I don’t have my ears plugged. It’s a critical question. The point is that you are using a hammer because that is what tool the job calls for, not a sledgehammer. When you need a sledgehammer, you will gravitate to the most useful and effective one.

So when people are using smartphones, that is what the use case calls for. From a quick check of socials, to facetiming someone, sending a text, making a phone call, looking up a product on the web, asking AI something, etc. One handed use is also a critical part of the use cases.

What I am questioning at a fundamental level is that there isn’t use cases for tablets when the use cases call for a smartphone, so what is the point of having a device that becomes a worse smartphone and a worse tablet?

Further to this, my position is that people are overselling the value of and need of a tablet. Many people don’t have or use a tablet. Compared to a smartphone, it’s awkward, necessitating two handed use and hit targets on the UI are generally farther apart so it takes more effort to interact with applications.

Overall, there are many compromises and issues as I have already discussed with a foldable. I’m not denying the existence of a niche market. But I don’t see it growing past this.
 
I'm on a 3 year upgrade cycle from my employer and I just received the 17 pro max. So this isn’t something I will have to decide before 2028. By that time the fold will have been around a couple of years so I will decide then. I don’t immediately think it’s something for me though.
 
Comparing a foldable to a Vision Pro is idiotic. Not even close to the same type of device. It won’t flop it will likely be the headline of next years iPhones. It will sell out very quickly.

This device will change how people view foldables like all other features which aren’t on iPhones that iPhone users will suddenly love.
 
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