A refute to "15 Current Technologies A Child Born Today Will Never Use"

Discussion in 'Community Discussion' started by Prodo123, May 14, 2012.

  1. Prodo123 macrumors 68020

    Prodo123

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2010
    #1
    The original article is here.

    1. Wired home internet. I love ethernet. It's that security of connection that one simply does not get with wireless. Yes, LTE can hit 25Mbps. That's only because it's an uncontested network. As soon as people start adopting LTE like crazy, it won't be at broadband speed. And the article states that LTE is faster that most wired home internet connections. What Americans. We probably have the slowest broadband connection out of the major world powers, which is pathetic. South Korea's average is 35Mbps! That's wired! Ethernet, at least for now, is here to stay.

    2. Dedicated camcorders might go. I can't really imagine using a camcorder anymore. But dedicated cameras? Has this author ever hear of DSLRs? Compare a micro-four-thirds camera sensor to that of a cell phone and one will definitely see why we will always have dedicated cameras.

    3. Landline phones are going. End of story.

    4. Slow-booting computers? Does this even matter anymore? I just put my computer to sleep and never care about whether my computer boots in 20 seconds or not.

    5. Windowed operating systems are staying for at least a decade. That convenience of having two windows side by side, and the flexibility it provides with multi-monitor systems are two great reasons as to why.

    6. Hard drives. Some people put capacity over speed. There will not be a 4TB SSD at an affordable price in at least 15 years. For now, hard drives are here to stay.

    7. Movie theaters. I can see them going, but not as soon as the author describes.

    8. Mouse. Absurd. There is no replacement for a precision instrument such as a mouse. Once one gets acquainted with the mouse, one can even write fairly well with it. It's simply indispensable and cheap.

    9. 3D glasses. 3D itself is going, IMO. It's just a fad. But due to the nausea that the parallax method may cause, glasses-free 3D will be a health hazard for many people.

    10. Remote controls. Please, get rid of them. We have smartphones now!

    11. Desktops. They're staying. At least for 30 years. Apparently all-in-ones do not count as desktops in the author's mind. I think the author meant desktop towers.

    12. Phone numbers. This is ridiculous. Phone numbers, unless we run out of the many billion numbers possible from a 10-digit combination, are staying.

    13. Prime-time television. Shows suck these days anyway, at least IMO. I wouldn't be surprised if it disappeared.

    14. Fax machines. These will surely disappear, but not anytime soon. Fax machines are the most secure way to duplicate and send documents to anywhere in the world. No risk of someone accidentally deleting the copy or anything. And it's an exact facsimile (hence the name). At least for official uses, the fax machine stays.

    15. Optical disks. I have already argued relentlessly about how optical disks and ODDs will stay as long as the music industry stays alive. I really do not want to expand on it now but if you prompt me to do so, I will.

    I want to hear your opinions!
     
  2. Doctor Q Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #2
    Landline phones are going, for individuals at home. I expect businesses and government offices to continue to use landlines with dedicated phone numbers a decade from now. After all, we'll almost always be talking to a computer system when we first phone a business, so there's nothing personal about it!
     
  3. Melrose Suspended

    Melrose

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2007
    #3
    I see lists like this and have to remember it's just fodder to get people talking or to sell magazines. They have little basis in reality.

    Landline phones won't go until you can have 100% solid connections on at least two major cell networks across the country. Too many people still live in areas where cell coverage is spotty at best. Pay phones are on the way out, maybe that's was the author meant. :p
     
  4. Yumunum macrumors 65816

    Yumunum

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2011
    Location:
    U.S.
    #4
    ^red = my input
     
  5. leftywamumonkey macrumors 6502a

    leftywamumonkey

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2010
    Location:
    California
    #5
    I just read the article and some points, especially the one about computer mice going away really irritated me. But then again, it's just a writer without any credibility. :mad:
     
  6. lovekeiiy macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2010
    #6
    The author of the original article is a bit full of it. I don't see any of this stuff going, but more changing.

    Landlines, i don't think will go away. How they're used, that's going to change. Some people just don't want to carry a cellphone. Others, the coverage in the area is horrible.

    Fax machines, they're still in use for business. Until the law catches up with the technology, they'll remain. And they law is very slow moving.

    Wired internet will be around for quite some time. One, mobile internet will need to get their ping times way down, such as under 20, because I see more things going to the cloud such as gaming, business app, where lag needs to be next to non-existent. Plus, home internet providers will pump up the speeds. In Japan, they get 100Mbps for our $40/mn.

    The point and shoot camera, will be around. It may be more niche, until smartphones come up with optical zoom, not completely replacing the simple camera. Plus, they need to add more anti-shake improvements to the smartphone camera. And yes, there are some zoom lenses you can get for smartphones, but who wants to carry them around all the time. I've seen marco lenses made with CD/DVD laser lenses for smartphones too.

    Remotes are not going away. They're going to change and evolve. There are just some aspects that probably won't play nice such as calibrating your TV.

    Prime time TV is not leaving. It will, like the rest of TV, is going to evolve with technology and consumer demands change. That's a whole business model that is fighting the change and trying to hold onto yesterday's methods to keep revenue streams and levels.

    Desktops are not going away either. All the devices he thinks will replace it, will not have the power of the desktop and some people are just not willing to wait for the most powerful machine for the parts to shrink. There are some things that work better with a full keyboard and monitor. I would hate to think of working on school paper on tablet or 10" screen. I do see the need shrinking, including laptops because of smartphones/tablets. Personally because of the smartphone, my need/want for desktop replacement laptops is no more. But it didn't remove my need for desktop.

    Optic discs, they'll be around for quite some time to come. No everyone is in love with idea of not owning their music, movie, game, or TV show. They don't want to depend on some service decision to keep a movie up or not. They're will be advancements in storage to the amount of data will increase. Until making RAM storage such as USB keycards, SD cards gets to pennies to produce, they'll be here to stay. It's why Sony, MS, Nintendo and so forth went to optical because it's costs around ten cents to make a game on CD/DVD instead of two or more dollars on a cartridge, which USB/SD cards are nothing more. And you can't count on the cloud since not everywhere has high speed internet, even in the continental US.

    As for phone numbers, they'll here for some time. They've only starting talking about changing that system within the last year or two because of technology and the number of phones, faxes, and other devices. It's only just talk thus far. It'll be years before it even starts, never mind trying to convert.

    One thing is true, things will and always do change. Yes, the things we use today may not exist or be the same as author's child grows.
     
  7. hexonxonx macrumors 601

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2007
    Location:
    Denver Colorado
    #7
    Businesses like the one I work at rely on multi-landline phone networks to do business. If it had no land lines, it would die. I see no way they could do what they do with cell phones.
     
  8. wordoflife macrumors 604

    wordoflife

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2009
    #8
    Movie theatres aren't going anywhere unless new releases become instantly available on iTunes / etc .... which won't ever happen.

    Wired internet isn't going anywhere. Yes, we'll use WiFi but we're not going to be relying all on cellular data, especially with the rates and caps that are enforced today. People also like to have their home networks which really won't work on a cellular device.

    Remotes Controls ... no keep them. I don't want to have to fetch my phone to change the channel. I'm not interested in pressing a lot of buttons to get where I want. I'd rather just punch in the number and BAM, done.
     
  9. jpmcdon macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2011
    #9
    You wanted to hear opinions...

    1. Wired home internet. I love ethernet. It's that security of connection that one simply does not get with wireless. Yes, LTE can hit 25Mbps. That's only because it's an uncontested network. As soon as people start adopting LTE like crazy, it won't be at broadband speed. And the article states that LTE is faster that most wired home internet connections. What Americans. We probably have the slowest broadband connection out of the major world powers, which is pathetic. South Korea's average is 35Mbps! That's wired! Ethernet, at least for now, is here to stay.

    > Agreed. It will disappear when my home wireless router is faster than plugging into the wall. Not today, probably not soon.

    2. Dedicated camcorders might go. I can't really imagine using a camcorder anymore. But dedicated cameras? Has this author ever hear of DSLRs? Compare a micro-four-thirds camera sensor to that of a cell phone and one will definitely see why we will always have dedicated cameras.

    > In reality, dedicated camcorders are already gone. Hobbyists will perpetuate physical cameras for decades.


    3. Landline phones are going. End of story.

    > Don't be so fast. Depends on your definition of landline. My "landline" is an IP phone that uses the internet but runs rings around my cell phone for signal strength, speakerphone functions and overall usability. I think these will be here for a long time. Moreover, internet and cell service is just not as reliable as the old-fashioned copper wire connected to a box at my house. For emergencies? I'd rather say I still have a backup.

    4. Slow-booting computers? Does this even matter anymore? I just put my computer to sleep and never care about whether my computer boots in 20 seconds or not.

    > Yes this matters! I don't care who you are: you occasionally have to reboot your computer, and it's annoying and time consuming when you do. I actually see this getting WORSE as operating systems are more sophisticated. Example: it takes upwards of a minute to reboot my iPhone, when my previous-generation phone would start in under 10 seconds.

    5. Windowed operating systems are staying for at least a decade. That convenience of having two windows side by side, and the flexibility it provides with multi-monitor systems are two great reasons as to why.

    > Agreed. The window is the logical way to make a 2D device (a monitor or display) productive as a 3D device. This only goes away when we get real 3D without headaches - which would allow spatial manipulation of visual images - and even then, it's really just an evolution.

    6. Hard drives. Some people put capacity over speed. There will not be a 4TB SSD at an affordable price in at least 15 years. For now, hard drives are here to stay.

    > Again, don't be so sure. I agree SSDs are awaiting the time where there is a breakthrough on price/performance vs. a HDD, but anyone who has had a hard drive failure (which is to say, all of us) long for a day when that is a distant memory. That drives innovation.

    7. Movie theaters. I can see them going, but not as soon as the author describes.

    > Not as long as they continue to evolve and offer unique, inexpensive entertainment outside the house. To me a movie is as much about doing something away from home as it is about seeing the movie itself. I don't think the desire to go out with the family somewhere goes away in the future - but perhaps what we're watching changes.

    8. Mouse. Absurd. There is no replacement for a precision instrument such as a mouse. Once one gets acquainted with the mouse, one can even write fairly well with it. It's simply indispensable and cheap.

    > People have been predicting the demise of the mouse since the day it was invented (think tablets, light pens, absurd 3-d motion devices, eye-sensing headsets). Bottom line: it's the lazy person's device: you can rest your whole arm on a desk and flick it slightly left or right - name something else that can input as much to a computer with so little effort? I think the only chance here for the mouses' demise is flat-screen touch displays designed to lay on a desk vs. propped up on a stand (think mega iPads on our desks - or a desk that IS a giant tablet). But - will it be as simple and cheap? No. My car has a manual transmission, 70 years after automatics were invented. Why? Simple, cheap, high control, high performance. Same reasons the mouse stays.

    9. 3D glasses. 3D itself is going, IMO. It's just a fad. But due to the nausea that the parallax method may cause, glasses-free 3D will be a health hazard for many people.

    > Fundamentally this shouldn't be so hard. The eye is God's masterpiece to be sure, but it's deceptively simple to trick. There will be some breakthrough on this that tricks the eye, but I wonder if it won't happen until we lose the flat-screen metaphor for displays and go to something like a sphere or plasma ball...

    10. Remote controls. Please, get rid of them. We have smartphones now!

    > Who doesn't hate their remote control? Someone who's tried to program an iPhone app to do the same thing. Long way to go here...

    11. Desktops. They're staying. At least for 30 years. Apparently all-in-ones do not count as desktops in the author's mind. I think the author meant desktop towers.

    > Wrong. I haven't used a desktop PC in 15 years. In fact, I'm not sure I've EVER had one for work. I used the very first IBM ThinkPad as my "desktop" computer (of course, attached to a keyboard, mouse and monitor), but why in the heck would I try to keep two separate computers operating when I can have one that plays both roles? And, besides the Mac Pros that like, 8 people have in total, have you ever seen a modern Windows "desktop"? It's the size of a laptop with a stand, because they're using the same laptop components now. This is ALREADY dead.

    12. Phone numbers. This is ridiculous. Phone numbers, unless we run out of the many billion numbers possible from a 10-digit combination, are staying.

    > Not sure about this one. Today I'm getting much more mileage out of my @mac.com address than my cell number, considering Facetime, iChat, GoToMeeting, etc. Why is it not viable to consider something more memorable than a 10-digit number wouldn't be better to contact me with?

    13. Prime-time television. Shows suck these days anyway, at least IMO. I wouldn't be surprised if it disappeared.

    > Again, something that is already dead. Name the last "prime time" show you watched live. Now, if you COULD have DVRed or retrieved it off the internet, would you have? And what is "prime time" anyway? My "prime time" is the time I have to watch a TV show, which is NEVER from 7-9 PM on weeknights.

    14. Fax machines. These will surely disappear, but not anytime soon. Fax machines are the most secure way to duplicate and send documents to anywhere in the world. No risk of someone accidentally deleting the copy or anything. And it's an exact facsimile (hence the name). At least for official uses, the fax machine stays.

    > 100% agreement. I use fax machines these days ONLY for legal document signatures, because the courts don't accept digital signatures yet. This dies when the lawyers agree on a digital signature standard - because they make up all the judges anyway, and the judges make the rules of the courts.

    15. Optical disks. I have already argued relentlessly about how optical disks and ODDs will stay as long as the music industry stays alive. I really do not want to expand on it now but if you prompt me to do so, I will.

    > Bulletin: the music industry is dead. No one has buried the body yet. I swear I haven't used a CD in a decade. DVDs are now gone because I can buy a 8GB memory key for $5 and use it over and over and over again. Buh-bye.

    I want to hear your opinions!

    > Done!
     
  10. steve2112 macrumors 68040

    steve2112

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2009
    Location:
    East of Lyra, Northwest of Pegasus
    #10
    Let's see...Some I agree with, such as optical disks and fax machines, but there are a few I disagree with.

    1) Wired internet service in the home? Doubtful. Until wireless service providers can lower prices and increase caps, this won't happen. In my area, Verizon's 4G MiFi card offers 5GB for $50 or 10GB for $80. My Comcast service is $45 for 20Mb/s down and a 250GB data cap. And, as others have pointed out, as more people use the service, it will slow down.

    2) Cameras: Maybe. Camcorders are already pretty much dying. The author is assuming everyone will be using a high-end smartphone with a great camera. The truth is many smartphones don't have a great camera.

    3) Landlines. Probably. Even my mother dropped her landline. I don't see business doing it, though. I've seen more of them switching to a VOIP service.

    4) Slow booting: Most people just put their systems to sleep. Even my gaming PC with its spinning drive boots quickly.

    5) Hard Drive: I agree that SSDs are becoming more common, but when you need lots of space for ripped movies, music, etc, SSDs won't cut it.

    6) Movie Theaters: Personally, I like watching most movies at home, but that's because I'm old and cranky. Seeing movies with a group of friends is a fun experience, though. Most people I know don't have a home theater, and don't have room for more than a few people to sit comfortably a watch a movie.
     
  11. shinobi-81 macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2012
  12. samiwas macrumors 68000

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2006
    Location:
    Atlanta, GA
    #12
    I'm also a fan of ethernet for LAN. I try to keep wireless only for wireless objects, like smartphones and laptops.

    I also simply put my computer to sleep. But those rare times when I do have to reboot, coincidentally always when I don't have time to, it takes forever and is annoying.

    What is the alternative? I already see mac OS trying to move away form the windowed environment with full screen apps and such. Give me windows. I am often comparing two documents, or using one document to pull info for another one.

    The day I hear the mouse is being discontinued is the day I buy every mouse I can get my hands on. I love touch screens, but they are just simply not precise enough for some activities. CAD drafting for example...I could not imagine doing that with a touchscreen.

    I just bought my first desktop in 15 years...I love it.

    Agreed...if dealing with a 10 digit number is hard, wait until you have only to deal with "hey man, contact me on at BubbasBigStereoEmporium@superhugemailserver.netcom". Give me a number.

    Oooohh...noooooooo.

    Please, for the love of god, let these relics from a bygone era die in a fiery pit of magma. I cannot stand when some business requires me to fax something, especially when it's not a legal document. The funny thing is...they say that a fax must be used because it's the "only way to send a signature". Except I scanned my signature into my computer, paste it onto what I want to fax whenever I need to, make a pdf, then send that PDF to a fax website to send. It's exactly the same as emailing the PDF (except more work)...I just don't get why a fax is still considered "the only way" by some legal entity.
     
  13. Nermal Moderator

    Nermal

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2002
    Location:
    New Zealand
    #13
    Wired is here to stay. Sure, copper is going to die off but fibre offers so much in the way of future-proofing that there is no way that it'll disappear any time soon.

    As noted by other people above, the mouse won't disappear until we have something to replace it.

    Faxes are slowly dying here; some of the smaller phone companies no longer offer fax support as everything goes through VoIP using codecs incompatible with fax. The biggest phone company in the country intends to drop fax support in 2020.

    Optical won't go away until there's a way to buy similar quality movies online. The selection in iTunes is very poor and last time I checked none of it was in HD if you live outside the US.
     
  14. miles01110 macrumors Core

    miles01110

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Location:
    The Ivory Tower (I'm not coming down)
    #14
    John McEnroe called, he wants his "you cannot be serious" back.
     
  15. Prodo123 thread starter macrumors 68020

    Prodo123

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2010
    #15
    I'm dead serious.
    How else do you think many medical clinics transfer records to each other ASAP?
     
  16. miles01110 macrumors Core

    miles01110

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Location:
    The Ivory Tower (I'm not coming down)
    #16
    If you think fax machines are "secure" in any way you've got about as much credibility as the original article.
     
  17. Prodo123 thread starter macrumors 68020

    Prodo123

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2010
    #17
    It's a shame to cite Wikipedia, but I don't really want to spend too much time on this, so here you go.
    Remember, remote hacking is easier than wire tapping nowadays.
    Just look at how rampant Anonymous can get.
     
  18. senseless macrumors 68000

    senseless

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2008
    Location:
    Pennsylvania, USA
    #18
    Phone cameras to dedicated cameras is like comparing crayons to pastels. Talented people will show you the difference.
     
  19. miles01110 macrumors Core

    miles01110

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Location:
    The Ivory Tower (I'm not coming down)
    #19
    That's hardly supportive of your argument if you actually thought about it. It's fine though - I've always taken the stance that people will believe what they want to believe even in the face of reason.
     
  20. steve2112 macrumors 68040

    steve2112

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2009
    Location:
    East of Lyra, Northwest of Pegasus
    #20
    If the fax machine is not behind a locked door, anyone can come along and take the fax off the machine. If the recipient waits to go get it, it can sit on the machine unattended. It may be secure during transmission, but there is no way to ensure it stays protected after it arrives at the other end. That's why faxes are not secure.
     
  21. Prodo123 thread starter macrumors 68020

    Prodo123

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2010
    #21
    Yep, that's why most people call the recipient right before sending a fax.
     
  22. SkyBell macrumors 604

    SkyBell

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2006
    Location:
    Texas, unfortunately.
    #22
    Irrelevant to thread, but
    I envy your internet availability like nothing else. :p Data caps around here top out at about 35 GB, and that's with a $100+ a month bill. The cheapest you can get is about $60, with a 5 GB cap. All this, combined with the fact that anything above 5Mb/s is unheard of. Might as well get mobile broadband. :(
     
  23. steve2112 macrumors 68040

    steve2112

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2009
    Location:
    East of Lyra, Northwest of Pegasus
    #23
    That doesn't always mean they are waiting by the fax machine. Even if you intend to go get it immediately, all kinds of interruptions could delay you. The problem is that most places don't secure their faxes and do leave them out in public. Also, in a business that receives a large number of faxes, you can't expect to get a call on each incoming fax.

    Then again, my views are a bit slanted, since I do IT security, and I'm constantly looking for ways to break stuff.

    What part of Texas are you in? My brother is in the DFW area, and he has Cox or Charter (can't remember which cable company it is), and he gets around 16Mb/s or so. I know the price was about what he was paying for SBC/AT&T DSL, but I don't know the data cap.The sad thing is that FIOS is available a few blocks down the road from his house, but not in his neighborhood.
     
  24. SkyBell macrumors 604

    SkyBell

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2006
    Location:
    Texas, unfortunately.
    #24
    I live about an hour northwest of San Antonio. I'm sure I could get decent internet if I lived in that city, but my town is about 2500 people. Choices for TV/Internet/Phone are very sparse and overpriced.
     
  25. zap2 macrumors 604

    zap2

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2005
    Location:
    Washington D.C
    #25
    Sounds like your time estimates are totally made up in the spot. Why 30 for desktop computers and why 15 years for 4TB SSD? Are you actively involved in researching and developing those technolies? Noone can know for sure, but unless you have some solid evidence for those types of claims, its unreasonable to make those guesses.
     

Share This Page