AAPL NEAR all time HIGH!

[dongmin]

Well, Apple is trading at $68 now. This is crazy. I reckon the stock price is gonna go through the roof when Apple have their earnings announcement after the christmas season.

Go Apple!

Actually no. Barring any new news regarding Apple, the price will continue to rise right up to the announcement. But as is ALWAYS the case, the price should drop right after the earnings report.

Unless Apple comes out and says that ipod demand was WAY WAy over the supply during the Xmas quarter and they expect that the demand to outstrip supply for the forseeable future, I doubt there'll be much forward-looking news in the earnings report to encourage investors to keep buying Apple stock.

 

[macidiot]

I must agree - make yourself aware of the nature of the company that you are considering for a share investment; ask questions like: What are the dividends? What are the expected dividends, going out five to ten years? Is it in a volatile industry? Is its cashflow predictable in the long term (5-10 years)? Is its balance sheet strong enough to weather a long recession? How good is its management? etc etc etc. There are plenty of web sites that can help make you aware of what you need to consider. .... good luck!

On a lighter note, it is very pleasing to see recognition - from investors - of market led innovation by Apple. One could be cynical and say that there isn't much else going on (so Apple attracts the funds by default) but I suspect there is a longer term "awareness" and "credibility" thing going on. [any Wall St or City comments???]

Dividends are a relatively minor indicator of a stocks quality. For example the majority of fast growing companies, especially tech, rarely declare dividends. Typically, mature, slow-growing companies offer dividends, increasing them as growth slows. Industries like tobacco and say, Wrigley offer nice dividends. If your a young investor, you probably shouldn't be interested in income stocks. Your looking for homerun types and are young enough to weather downturns. In other words you can take risks. Reading your posting, maybe you meant earnings?

As for long term outlook...like 5-10 years, no one can predict it. Anyone who does is just making stuff up. The best anyone can do is predict 2-3 years out. 3-5 years, your just talking macro trends at best.

As for Wall St. recognition, the only thing that they are interested in is growing profits. The reason they ignored Apple for so long is that there was no growth driver. Obviously, the iPod has solved that problem. The key part is that the iPod growth is not limited by Mac marketshare.

 

[macidiot]

its a little off topic, but i think whats happening is kmart has tons of real estate and is selling it to sears - and thats why the stock has climbed so high.

i'm really hoping that sales for the imac and other non-ipod products have risen as analysts have expected. if AAPL does go up to $100+, to me it'll become one of those trades that doesn't make much sense. kindof like google... i mean, can that company be making THAT much money? strange logic i know.

i do remember though; when apples stock rose to $30-$35 back during early spring. and everyone was laughing about it, saying that the reason was because there were rumors that SONY was going to buy out apple.

KMart is buying Sears for about 11Billion. Both companies are getting killed by Wal-Mart. I don't know a whole lot about it but the thinking is that the ceo of Kmart is going to turn it into holding company along the lines of Berkshire, using the major assets(real estate) to finance things.

If Apple moves 20 million ipods next year(not that far of a stretch), and actually manages to grow computer sales(like with a G5 laptop ), $100/share is justified. Apple could looking at about 14 billion in sales(6 billion gross from iPods). A market cap of 40billion (which is around $100/share) isn't that out of line, though a bit of a stretch. Thats why I think $80 is a more realistic 12month target. Course if they manage to increase market share at all, like by .5%, $100 would be cheap. And of course, if they release a flash based iPod under $200, they would own the market completely, and again, $100/share might be cheap.

Compare that to Google which is already has a market cap of about 50 billion, about double that of Apple. The problem with Google aren't the growth prospects, its the valuation. There just isn't much upside left in the medium term @ $181/share. Great company though, and I hope they suck the life from Microsoft.

An important thing to remember when comparing stocks is not the share price but the market cap. Washington Post trades at about $940/share but only has a market cap of about 10 billion.

 

[macidiot]

Actually no. Barring any new news regarding Apple, the price will continue to rise right up to the announcement. But as is ALWAYS the case, the price should drop right after the earnings report.

Unless Apple comes out and says that ipod demand was WAY WAy over the supply during the Xmas quarter and they expect that the demand to outstrip supply for the forseeable future, I doubt there'll be much forward-looking news in the earnings report to encourage investors to keep buying Apple stock.

well...Apple's stock went up after the last earnings announcement. So I wouldn't say it ALWAYS drops right after it reports. But its true that there is typically a "buy the rumors, sell the news" thing with Apple.

 

[macidiot]

Apple will be able to raise money more easily by issuing fewer shares at these higher prices--not that they actually need any more cash at this point.

Established companies in good financial shape rarely issue new stock except for unusual transactions(like a merger or acquisition) or employees(options plans, bonuses), and that stock often already exists, being held in reserve by the company. If Apple wanted to raise cash, they would probably just borrow it from a bank or possibly issue a bond.

At this point, the stock price is about providing value to the owners of the company, the stockholders. Issuing loads of new stock would actually be detrimental to stockholders, being dilutive to earnings.

 

[Savage Henry]

If Apple wanted to raise cash, they would probably just borrow it from a bank or possibly issue a bond.

Jobs made a bid deal when Apple becamse 'debt free' not so long ago. I can't think they will be too keen to start down that path.

 

[asif786]

well...Apple's stock went up after the last earnings announcement. So I wouldn't say it ALWAYS drops right after it reports. But its true that there is typically a "buy the rumors, sell the news" thing with Apple.

I think generally with Apple, the week before the report, the shares start to go higher, and then depending on the report, they either dip, increase or stay steady.

Hopefully this time it will increase - Regular iPods seem to be in stock everywhere, minis are obviously a bit more scarce, but can still be found - unlike like christmas where everbody was sold out of ipods!

/asif

 

[topicolo]

depending on the report, they either dip, increase or stay steady.

/asif

That's quite a prediction you've got there. In fact, it's so good there's a 0% of it being wrong

heheh

 

[macidiot]

Jobs made a bid deal when Apple becamse 'debt free' not so long ago. I can't think they will be too keen to start down that path.

I agree that Apple probably won't be taking on debt soon. I think its stupid though. Considering the cost of capital right now, they should be adding a bit of debt to leverage the enterprise and maximize roi. Things they could spend it on...joint venture w/Hitachi to get more drives, r&d (like maybe for a G5 laptop). Or how about spending money on advertising for a computer every now and then?

 

[StarbucksSam]

I noticed the title of this thread is "near" an all-time high. If I recall, the best it did was 110, and then it split and shortly thereafter dropped to like 19 at some point. Now it's up near 64, which a couple years ago was about 128. So isn't it AT an all-time high?

EDIT: Just checked the quote and it's at almost 68. If I'm correct, that's like 136 before the 2:1 split which beat the old high by a LOT.

 

[Savage Henry]

Considering the cost of capital right now, they should be adding a bit of debt to leverage the enterprise and maximize roi. Things they could spend it on...joint venture w/Hitachi to get more drives, r&d (like maybe for a G5 laptop)

That is very good for other businesses, I can't disagree in any way. But I believe that joint ventures involving companies with a strong inherant cultural identity could be a bit ropey. By keeping at arms length you arguably maintain a certain amount of contractual leverage. I don't think a joint venture-styleee kinda route is Apple's way.

Or how about spending money on advertising for a computer every now and then?

Now ya just talking crazeeee.... sheesh!