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Original poster
Apr 12, 2001
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In an extensive research report on the smartphone industry released this morning, RBC Capital Markets reveals a "new world order" in which smartphones embracing the convergence of communication, computing, and content are becoming the "next wave" of computing. Based on this evidence, RBC sees smartphones, led by Apple, Research in Motion and Palm, taking a larger share of mobile phone sales than previously predicted, and even capturing users, revenue and market share from other markets such as the PC, TV, media player, digital camera, gaming, and navigation markets previously considered discrete market segments.

RBC sees the possibility for 4-5 smartphone "leaders", each carving out a fairly distinct market segment on which to focus. The model sees Apple as having staked out the "media-centric" segment and Research in Motion having grabbed the "productivity-centric" segment, and proposes three other segments that may yet arise: "PIM-centric" focused on personal organization, "cloud-centric" based on data-heavy users taking advantage of web-based e-mail, social networking and other web-based services, and a "specialized" market for devices that excel in one specific area such as e-books, gaming, or navigation.

The report views Apple's installed base of 100+ million iPod users and 300+ million iTunes users as natural leverage for expanding market share, and sees the company continuing to introduce innovations that will further expand the addressable market. Apple's existing smartphone unit market share of 10.8% is expected to grow to 16.3% in 2012, but that growth would occur alongside expected growth of the smartphone share of the overall mobile market from ~10% to 35% over that time. The result is that Apple's overall mobile market share would grow from 1.1% in 2008 to 5.7% in 2012 on unit growth from 13.7 million in 2008 to 82.1 million in 2012.


095636-rbc_apple_estimates_500.png


Image from RBC Capital Markets
("TAM" refers to Total Addressable Market)

Based on the total market analysis, RBC has raised its target price for Apple's stock to $250 from a previous target of $190.
We view the iPhone as a 10-year platform, with significant growth and share gains ahead. Our outlook reflects continued share gains in domestic and international markets, driven by distribution expansion, innovations in user experience, and additional iPhone SKUs. Apple’s iTunes/iTunes Store/device ecosystem remains a significant source of competitive advantage.
Besides Apple, RBC also sees Research in Motion continuing to succeed with its BlackBerry line of smartphones and Palm possessing the "secret sauce" of management, integration and innovation to leverage its new webOS operating system for future market gains.

Article Link: Analyst: Apple to Sell 80+ Million iPhones in 2012, Snag 5.7% of Total Mobile Phone Market
 

BongoBanger

macrumors 68000
Feb 5, 2008
1,920
0
And the elephant in the room would be Nokia wouldn't it? Oh yeah, and HTC and Samsung.

An interesting article but kind of flawed.
 

*LTD*

macrumors G4
Feb 5, 2009
10,703
1
Canada
The writing's on the wall.

And a lot of the also-rans STILL haven't upped their game, and it's been over two years since the iPhone's debut.
 

eastcoastsurfer

macrumors 6502a
Feb 15, 2007
600
27
Given that I think in the coming years more and more phones will be 'smart', I would hope that Apple is pressing for much more than only 5.7% of the market. If that's all they end up during the smart phone explosion then IMHO they will have failed with the iphone.
 

Michael73

macrumors 65816
Feb 27, 2007
1,081
41
They mentioned WebOs for Palm but I wonder how the operating systems figure in this picture. This isn't just about Apple vs. Palm vs. RIM vs .... it's really about WebOS vs. iPhone OS vs. Android vs. WindowsMobile vs ....

It's as much about the OS leveraging the hardware as the hardware leveraging the OS.
 

matc

macrumors member
Sep 26, 2008
55
70
No Source-Link?

Could someone pls provide a link to the source of this information???
:confused:
 

*LTD*

macrumors G4
Feb 5, 2009
10,703
1
Canada
Given that I think in the coming years more and more phones will be 'smart', I would hope that Apple is pressing for much more than only 5.7% of the market. If that's all they end up during the smart phone explosion then IMHO they will have failed with the iphone.

Apple doesn't really stand still when it comes to development.
 

andiwm2003

macrumors 601
Mar 29, 2004
4,365
432
Boston, MA
good to hear that PALM is back. I hope they make some good money from the pre so that they can build a good line of products. I always liked my Palm Zire, the handwriting recognition and the Stylus. If they are big enough they certainly can be an interesting platform by themselves or at least push apple to make better products.
 

idiosyncratic i

macrumors newbie
Oct 7, 2007
26
0
Pretty bold prediction considering the economy. Consumer spending has still not recovered. I'm sure iPhone will see growth, and it's possible that it may even see growth on this magnitude, but this report seems to have more iffy assumptions in it than even your standard market prediction.
 

BongoBanger

macrumors 68000
Feb 5, 2008
1,920
0
The real problems with the article - and to be fair to the analyst he does kind of mitigate this in the full text - is that the expansion of the smartphone sector is going to be driven by one major factor: cost.

Apple will do well in the sector, of that I have no doubt, but I'm not sure that they're ever going to be dominant. The problem here is that unit costs will need to be driven down (and again RBC note this) if market share is to be grabbed. Similarly I'm not sure where he's coming from with Palm and WebOS as, frankly, it's pretty much a 'so what' product.

Remember Munster's predictions of 45 million units a year by 2009? This seems tinged with a similar vein of over optimism.
 

QCassidy352

macrumors G4
Mar 20, 2003
11,779
5,410
Bay Area
I think he's overestimating Palm's chances more than a little given how the Pre has played out so far.

I also think 4-5 smartphone segments is overstating it. I see it more as business and personal. IMO, PIM-centric and cloud-centric are not distinct segments, and phones that excel at one thing will be a very small niche market because as the iphone proves, you can be pretty darn good at a lot of things at once.
 

JGowan

macrumors 68000
Jan 29, 2003
1,765
22
Mineola TX
Article said:
... and a "specialized" market for devices that excel in one specific area such as e-books, gaming, or navigation.
Because somehow, the iPhone doesn't do e-books, gaming or navigation. As cool as this news is, THAT PART is lame.
 

Mr Maui

macrumors 65816
Jul 19, 2002
1,152
0
Given that I think in the coming years more and more phones will be 'smart', I would hope that Apple is pressing for much more than only 5.7% of the market. If that's all they end up during the smart phone explosion then IMHO they will have failed with the iphone.

For the record ... the report says that Apple will have 5.7% of the overall mobile phone market. Considering they have less than 2% now, do you think any other phone manfacturer will increase their position by 200% (triple) in 3 years? Additionally, they project Apple will have almost 17% of the smartphone market.
 

bretm

macrumors 68000
Apr 12, 2002
1,951
27
They mentioned WebOs for Palm but I wonder how the operating systems figure in this picture. This isn't just about Apple vs. Palm vs. RIM vs .... it's really about WebOS vs. iPhone OS vs. Android vs. WindowsMobile vs ....

It's as much about the OS leveraging the hardware as the hardware leveraging the OS.

Here, maybe. Corporate level, maybe. But it's already been shown that the consumer level (teeny bopper, college student, mom & dad, etc.) are the new smart phone patrons and they just want it to be easy, fun and accessible. Like the iPod. I think that's truly the reason Apple is keeping thing closed and in their own store. Yes, they can make money off software sales. But they are also completely controlling the user experience end to end. "It just works" holds even more true for the iPhone than the macintosh. A purchaser of the iPhone can get any app they need with the press of ONE button on the home screen. NOT via a forum that mentions it at some website with some version of the OS neccessary and a jailbroken phone with this tweak, etc. NOT mentioned in an ad that sends you to some web site. NOT only available via a web site then downloaded to your computer, then synced with your iPhone via a different method each time.

Yes, it is closed. And if it were the only phone platform outthere dictated to me by the government I'd be quite annoyed. But it's an ecosystem developed by one particular company (an underdog company at that) that "just works." It's the whole reason others are trying their hand at similar phones and OS's. Palm and RIM had their chance for 10 years! They sat on their laurels for the most part with slow progress. They needed a kick.

Google enters and says, yeah, but it's a closed system. Everything should be open, etc. Programmers and techies love that. Consumers don't. They want an invisible experience. Apple is happy to hold onto it's method for a long time.

However, it is potentially the same route the original macintosh took if they don't adjust as things change. But apple has already made changes. Price especially. They are priced the same as the competition. They learned their lesson quickly on that front and went to subsidized pricing like everyone else.
 

Oh-es-Ten

macrumors regular
Aug 14, 2007
183
39
London
A Trojan?

Personally I think the iPhone is the ultimate Apple "trojan horse"... people are attracted to the device, and the way it works, and the seamless experience. I have now seen iPhones in the hands of some die hard Windows guys in IT (including .NET developers and Windows Sys Admins), and over time I have heard they have all ended up with Macs at home.

I think that Apple is executing a near perfect strategy here as far as selling more iPhones, attracting more people to OS X and more overall sales in general.

I believe that this can only get better with time too, and I think some analysts are finally starting to realise this. Well done chaps.
 

StuBeck

macrumors 6502
May 6, 2008
428
212
The real problems with the article - and to be fair to the analyst he does kind of mitigate this in the full text - is that the expansion of the smartphone sector is going to be driven by one major factor: cost.

Apple will do well in the sector, of that I have no doubt, but I'm not sure that they're ever going to be dominant. The problem here is that unit costs will need to be driven down (and again RBC note this) if market share is to be grabbed. Similarly I'm not sure where he's coming from with Palm and WebOS as, frankly, it's pretty much a 'so what' product.

Remember Munster's predictions of 45 million units a year by 2009? This seems tinged with a similar vein of over optimism.

I also don't agree with their massive sales predictions. A big problem for many people is data plan costs. My mom would like to have a smart phone, but she's unwilling to pay $360 a year to have it on her phone.

While its going to increase, I see a lot of people who want an iPhone to be getting them in the next year or so (after their 2 year contract has expired). I have a 3G and don't see a huge reason to upgrade to the 3GS right now since it works fine. Only bit which may have me upgrade is having to replace the battery, but I'll probably do that myself.
 

i.mac

macrumors 6502a
Dec 14, 2007
996
247
...
or at least push apple to make better products.

This is a common thread now-a-days... 'push apple to make better products'

As if Apple would not have enough incentive on its own...

...palm has created a subpar copy of what apple delivered in the iphone. This, I am sure, is not pushing apple in any direction other than possible legal action (which every one hopes does not take place)

...and moreover, where were all these other companies and products when apple conceived, developed, and delivered the original iphone? Who pushed apple then?

...and moreover, is it not conceivable that apple has been and is developing the next product(s) that will change the market as we know it now? Which companies and products are pushing apple to do this research and development? (certainly not palm, dell, ibm, or any one that I can see...)

Apple is pushing itself, no need of any copy-doers such as palm and others to push them.
 

dagamer34

macrumors 65816
May 1, 2007
1,359
101
Houston, TX
Considering that almost all iPhones have a required data plan with them, you can't really have the truly wild growth like Apple has had with the iPod (particularly the iPod Touch recently).
 

tmoore049

macrumors newbie
Jul 28, 2008
10
0
apple stock is set to go up and all the while, there is no talk about steve jobs or his health...

maybe people should take this moment to reflect on this and start giving Mr. Jobs the privacy he deserves.
 

DougB541

macrumors 6502a
Apr 13, 2009
617
0
This is a common thread now-a-days... 'push apple to make better products'

As if Apple would not have enough incentive on its own...

...palm has created a subpar copy of what apple delivered in the iphone. This, I am sure, is not pushing apple in any direction other than possible legal action (which every one hopes does not take place)

...and moreover, were where all these other companies and products when apple conceived, developed, and delivered the original iphone? Who pushed apple then?

...and moreover, is it not conceivable that apple has been and is developing the next product(s) that will change the market as we know it now? Which companies and products are pushing apple to do this research and development? (certainly not palm, dell, ibm, or any one that I can see...)

Apple is pushing itself, no need of any copy-doers such as palm and others to push them.

The irony of lamenting an ignorant statement with another one.

Welcome to how technology is. Yes, Apple pushed the mobile phone industry in a direction...but guess, what, you can't then say every large touch screen mobile device is "copying the iPhone". Thats like saying every flip phone was copying the Startac.
 

DougB541

macrumors 6502a
Apr 13, 2009
617
0
apple stock is set to go up and all the while, there is no talk about steve jobs or his health...

maybe people should take this moment to reflect on this and start giving Mr. Jobs the privacy he deserves.

He deserves privacy? He is the CEO of a large tech company that he pulled from near ruins and has skirted the truth around his health multiple times.


Why does he deserve privacy again?
 
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