Analyst: Apple to Sell 80+ Million iPhones in 2012, Snag 5.7% of Total Mobile Phone Market

[Grimace]

Wait, can I pre-order one of these 2012 iPhones?

80+ million is quite a feat, but if China comes on board, along with other a diversity of carriers in the US (especially) and the rest of the world, I could see it.

[Checks stock portfolio...]

 

[Cubert]

I love how several years ago Steve Jobs talked against device convergence.

Well, he also talked against video on the iPod and things with a similarly small screen size.

Fake left. Go right.

 

[theBB]

What was their 2009 market share prediction for Apple back in the summer of 2006? How about marketshare for netbooks? Forecasts for more than 1 year are unreliable in high tech. If they predict five years or more, they are worthless. Don't even bother printing it.

 

[JGowan]

This is a common thread now-a-days... 'push apple to make better products'

As if Apple would not have enough incentive on its own...

:: snip ::

Apple is pushing itself, no need of any copy-doers such as palm and others to push them.

//rant on

Here, here. Apple keeps Apple marching ... it needs no battlecry from the peanut gallery.

There is a sense of entitlement that nausiates me these days (mostly from teens) but also here on the tech turf where people just expect to be wowed all the time (whether they buy the products or not [mostly NOT])... Oh, they'll they're the first to gripe and complain when Apple doesn't give them what they'd like to have, but when Apple finally brings the product to market, they either complain that there's not enough there to warrant a purchase, or they claim to "never buy first generation products because A, B, C"...

I have a 1st gen iPhone... love it. I bought the very first iPod (purchased on launch day: November 10)... loved it.

If you're going to demand Apple keeps bringing out great products, just buy the damn things already.

//rant off

Competition is good for the consumer. We all know that. We get more for less. But where's the true iPod killer? Where's the iPhone killer? Where's the OS X killer? If anyone's motivation anybody else it's Apple causing everybody else to up THEIR game. Do you think the ZuneHD would be coming out if the iPod hadn't been the product of the century? Hell no. Apple shows the world what markets there are (even when the experts talk of NICHE this and NICHE that)... Apple says, this is a mainstream need and we're going to fill it.

 

[Mal]

He deserves privacy? He is the CEO of a large tech company that he pulled from near ruins and has skirted the truth around his health multiple times.


Why does he deserve privacy again?

He deserves privacy because he is a human being, and we all have that right. Just because he's a CEO doesn't mean you have the right to know intimate details of his private life.

Go find a celebrity to stalk or something.

jW

 

[Doctor Q]

...and even capturing users, revenue and market share from other markets such as the PC, TV, media player, digital camera, gaming, and navigation markets previously considered discrete market segments.

I run programs on my iPhone but I still need my Mac for any kind of serious editing: documents, spreadsheets, images, movies, etc.

I watch videos on my iPhone but I still need my TV for the best movie-watching experience.

I listen to music on my iPhone but I listen to the home stereo when I'm home, for the best sound on the best speakers.

I take photos with my iPhone but only when I don't have my "real" camera with me.

I play games on my iPhone but it's not the same experience as a full-screen computer game or console game.

So we aren't there yet. And won't any portable device in the future still provide a compromised experience at best, just because it's small? Other than the camera, the size of a hand-sized device limits each of these uses.

 

[*LTD*]

http://www.macdailynews.com/index.p..._second_only_to_nokia_in_euro_smartphone_biz/

http://www.canalys.com/services/reports/

Apple iPhone now second only to Nokia in Euro smartphones.

 

[Eidorian]

I run programs on my iPhone but I still need my Mac for any kind of serious editing: documents, spreadsheets, images, movies, etc.

I watch videos on my iPhone but I still need my TV for the best movie-watching experience.

I listen to music on my iPhone but I listen to the home stereo when I'm home, for the best sound on the best speakers.

I take photos with my iPhone but only when I don't have my "real" camera with me.

I play games on my iPhone but it's not the same experience as a full-screen computer game or console game.

So we aren't there yet. And won't any portable device in the future still provide a compromised experience at best, just because it's small? Other than the camera, the size of a hand-sized device limits each of these uses.

You'll see people on both sides. The gadget that does everything or a dedicated piece of hardware to accomplish a task. I'm not talking about a unitasker either. It's nice to have an umbrella of features but it's still not the best.

 

[Master Chief]

The irony of lamenting an ignorant statement with another one.

Welcome to how technology is. Yes, Apple pushed the mobile phone industry in a direction...but guess, what, you can't then say every large touch screen mobile device is "copying the iPhone". Thats like saying every flip phone was copying the Startac.

Wait a second... Prada was the first company to come out with a statement about a touch screen mobile phone (being developed) and not Apple. And what if Prada asked Apple to develop it for them?

 

[run-kmc]

I don't see a "PIM" segment, they should all be good at that. Some are better than others, (a seven year old palm does a better job with that than my iPhone) but Apple will get there soon, as will everyone else.

 

[dicklacara]

What's missing is any mention or the rumored tablet device.

If Apple's rumored device is what I think it is, it will redefine both mobile computers and smart phones. Someone posted that ease-of-use is the key. I agree.

The great majority of [non-techie] people don't want to buy devices... they want solutions.

Apple broke a lot of rules/traditions/limitations with the iPhone:
-- did not cede device (hardware/software/design) control to the carrier
-- changed the way carrier delivered voice mail
-- cell and WiFi web access that was actually useable
-- superior media & entertainment experience
-- user customizable via app store

I suspect that Apple's tablet solution will break a few more rules as it delivers solutions to the masses. For example:

-- Apple tablet will be SIMless or have Universal SIM & wiil work with any carrier
-- Apple Stores (Stick & Stucco, Web, iTunes App Store) will will sell [multiple] carrier services in addition to the tablet device
-- many options for carrier services customized to user's needs: PayGo or Contract; Voice Only; Data Only; Voice and Data
-- flexible carrier rates- as usage goes up, rates go down
-- tethering and MMS will be non-issues

Rather than the iPhone bringing the smart phone to the masses, Apple's tablet will bring solutions to the masses.

 

[mciarlo]

He deserves privacy? He is the CEO of a large tech company that he pulled from near ruins and has skirted the truth around his health multiple times.


Why does he deserve privacy again?

Because he is a human being.

EDIT: Just saw Mal's post - my sentiments exactly.

 

[DELLsFan]

Apple doesn't really stand still when it comes to development.

I wish they would prove this with the Apple TV. I'm looking forward to something other than a revamp to the software UI.

 

[ericinboston]

1)Predicting something 2 years out like this is ridiculous.

2)Owning 5.7%? Wow...gotta write a letter home to mom about that crazy marketshare!

 

[Thunder82]

1)Predicting something 2 years out like this is ridiculous.

Agreed, it's still freaking 2009.

 

[Speedy2]

I often wonder what kind of devices are put in the smartphone category by analysts. It often seems all those Nokia N-series mobiles are considered smartphones, even though they are anything but smart.

If we're talking about real smart phones (=latest Blackberries, iPhone, Pre, Android and maybe someday Windows Mobile), I highly doubt we'll see 35% market share in 2012. Reason: They are simply too expensive for the masses. Not just the hardware, but also the contracts these things come with. Since the prices haven't come down during the last year, I doubt they will crash down into mainstream-territory by 2012.

On the other hand, I also doubt that the iPhone will only gain another 5-6% of the smartphone market share during the next 3 years. My guess is that they will double their share, at least. The iPhone is still leading the pack in so many important respects and is priced very competitively. And they will have to open up to other carriers a some point.

 

[*LTD*]

I wish they would prove this with the Apple TV. I'm looking forward to something other than a revamp to the software UI.

Have to agree with you there. AppleTV does what it's supposed to, fair enough, but it's capable of so much more. It has a lot of potential. Dollars-to-donuts Apple has big plans for it. We just don't know about it yet, and the rumour-mill hasn't churned anything out about that. Yet. Well, MDN did a piece on it recently, except I can't find it at the moment.

 

[sparks9]

iPhones are selling way faster than iPods.

lol

no.

 

[Speedy2]

I run programs on my iPhone but I still need my Mac for any kind of serious editing: documents, spreadsheets, images, movies, etc.
[...]
So we aren't there yet. And won't any portable device in the future still provide a compromised experience at best, just because it's small? Other than the camera, the size of a hand-sized device limits each of these uses.

We will probably never get "there", if you define "there" as the ultimate device that does everything perfectly. A portable device will of course always be limited in some ways. However, you can carry it with you all the time (unlike your Mac, TV etc) and for many tasks the offered features will be (and are!) considered "enough" by very many people. Before the iPhone this "enough" was mostly limited to calling, texting and taking pictures. Now the bar is much, much higher, simply because you can have a usable Internet with you all the time.

It will be interesting to see, what other stuff can be integrated in a similar way, so that everyone will say a few years later: "How could people ever live without this?". Quite a few people I know have compared their perceived significance of usable mobile Internet to how they experienced the introduction of mobile phones.

 

[kornyboy]

Wirelessly posted (iPhone: Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 3_0_1 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/528.18 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/4.0 Mobile/7A400 Safari/528.16)

That's an interesting goal. We will see if it happens.

 

[Speedy2]

lol

no.

Actually, it is true. The iPod needed a few years to really take off at the end of 2004. The iPhone was an immediate success. As a result, Apple is already making a lot more money with the iPhone after 2 years than they had made with the iPod after 2 years.

 

[i.mac]

The irony of lamenting an ignorant statement with another one.

Welcome to how technology is. Yes, Apple pushed the mobile phone industry in a direction...but guess, what, you can't then say every large touch screen mobile device is "copying the iPhone". Thats like saying every flip phone was copying the Startac.

lamenting? Ignorant?

Not worth elaborating... You missed the point...

 

[xIGmanIx]

They mentioned WebOs for Palm but I wonder how the operating systems figure in this picture. This isn't just about Apple vs. Palm vs. RIM vs .... it's really about WebOS vs. iPhone OS vs. Android vs. WindowsMobile vs ....

It's as much about the OS leveraging the hardware as the hardware leveraging the OS.

to me that is key, apple did a good job with their intial mobile OS, but it is going to be the hardware application that is going to make the most difference. granted, they need to continue to make some hardware tweaks, but i think mobile OS is what the companys are going to safe guard, and hopefully open it up to other hardware vendors to leverage their skillsets, apple of course will not

 

[StuBeck]

Actually, it is true. The iPod needed a few years to really take off at the end of 2004. The iPhone was an immediate success. As a result, Apple is already making a lot more money with the iPhone after 2 years than they had made with the iPod after 2 years.

I believe sparks9 was talking about the iPhone not selling more than the iPod at this moment. And even if you look at the original iPod to the iPhone, you can't really compare the two. The first ipod was only compatible with the Mac (shutting off 90%+ of the market) and it was also creating a market which didn't really exist either.

 

[Vorst]

to me that is key, apple did a good job with their intial mobile OS, but it is going to be the hardware application that is going to make the most difference. granted, they need to continue to make some hardware tweaks, but i think mobile OS is what the companys are going to safe guard, and hopefully open it up to other hardware vendors to leverage their skillsets, apple of course will not

It is the eco system from Apple most probably that will make the difference. Hardware will always involve (e.g. better battery technology, by the way I'm typing on my new macbook which indicate 6:18 hours to go with my battery and I was already surfing 1 hour!!!!). The OS software just got 1000 new API in OSX mobile. The excellent music store, the app/game store. Mobile Me just sync my contacts that I entered on my computer etc (and this is just the beginning).
If apple continue to be PC hardware innovator, design innovator, OSX innovator for all size of devices, Mobile devices innovator, Server contents solution provider (music, apps, games, syncing), they will be difficult to beat.