Analysts are wrong. Slow ip8 sales will destroy ipX sales

[oplix]

The idea that people are holding out for the iphone X is only telling part of the story. Apple has historically used the shock and awe strategy to quickly unload a massive inventory right after announcing the phones. This type of demand then translated into a long term sales strategy.

This strategy is based around having the most amount of anticipation build up, announcing the device, and then immediately grabbing pre-orders and first week release in-store sales.

They are actually killing off their own hype by:

1. announcing both models at the same time
2. making people wait two months (maybe even longer now) after announcing it. this puts diminishing returns on consumer anticipation
3. a lot of consumers will take information about the iphone 8 and translate it into the iphone X. if there is issues with software, those issues will be on people's minds when the iphone X is released.
4. two months of slow sales will have an immediate impact of not only word of mouth marketing dynamics but also using the stores themselves as a marketing tool. Slow stores is bad from a marketing standpoint.

 

[358547]

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[Korican100]

you are insane if you don't think iphone X won't fly off the shelves.

the iphone 8 isn't anything but a 7S re-"S'd" again, which they introduced as the 8 to buy time for their manufacturing strains/timeline of the X. Either way, as long as they get consumers buying either phone, then Apple is making money regardless.
Word of Mouth for apple? Slow stores for Apple? do you even understand the company you are talking about?

 

[Juan007]

Thanks for the great analysis Poindexter, you are smarter than Apple's marketing team, sales team, Tim Cook, and Steve Jobs' dead corpse combined. If only YOU were running iPhone release schedules instead of the folks now, iPhone would be the best selling phone in the world and be making billions of dollars for Apple, instead of... hey wait a minute!

 

[oplix]

Thanks for the great analysis Poindexter, you are smarter than Apple's marketing team, sales team, Tim Cook, and Steve Jobs' dead corpse combined. If only YOU were running iPhone release schedules instead of the folks now, iPhone would be the best selling phone in the world and be making billions of dollars for Apple, instead of... hey wait a minute!

Steve Jobs' corpse has more talent than anyone you mentioned. The reason why that talent is not needed is because Jobs created the Apple fanboys that no longer care about facts or perspective. Just an ever expanding echo chamber.

 

[First Post G]

Yeah not happening. If people really weren’t going to buy the X, the 8 would have done much better than all appearances suggest. Every other iterative cycle has performed excellent and your theory would suggest people have stopped buying iPhones altogether.

 

[rafark]

While I agree it's a terrible idea to have a month and a half between the announcement and the launch day, you usually launch while people haven't thoroughly thought about the purchase; it's apple, it's got an impressive looking new phone. It'll sell like hot cakes despite every possible imaginable drawback.

 

[iScone]

This thread is nonsense. The X is obviously going to do huge business.

 

[CEmajr]

It will sell like crazy either way. It's not like iPhone buyers have anywhere else to go. Very few Apple users will switch to competing products and Apple knows it. The X will sell as many units as Apple can have produced.

 

[oplix]

Here comes that echo chamber. "This one guy replied with , you said it won't sell but it will" followed by 5 pages of "ya it's obviously going to sell" SMH

 

[iScone]

Here comes that echo chamber. "This one guy replied with , you said it won't sell but it will" followed by 5 pages of "ya it's obviously going to sell" SMH

Most people disagree with you. You don't have to create a narrative to make sense of that.

 

[oplix]

Most people won't even understand what is being said. It's ok I'll join in too.

LOL OP IS NUTS. OF COURSE IPHONE X WILL SELL. IF IT DIDN'T SELL HOW COME IM BUYING ONE? LOL

 

[predation]

It's apple creating another tier iPhone.

It's another business avenue. I would say it's the max # of tiers for the iPhone.

Surprisingly, the Apple Watch is doing well. Apple def is taking the cake in this segment.

Looking forward to their contribution in the AI realm, autonomous driving, augmented reality, etc...

I'm hoping they are bringing in the heat in the future.

I'd say go long on APPL.

 

[oplix]

It's apple creating another tier iPhone.

It's another business avenue. I would say it's the max # of tiers for the iPhone.

Surprisingly, the Apple Watch is doing well. Apple def is taking the cake in this segment.

Looking forward to their contribution in the AI realm, autonomous driving, augmented reality, etc...

I'm hoping they are bringing in the heat in the future.

I'd say go long on APPL.

You are hitting all the right points.

 

[protoxx]

I'm sure there are legions of wall street companies and financial institutions bidding for the OP's analytical services.

 

[iScone]

Most people won't even understand what is being said. It's ok I'll join in too.

LOL OP IS NUTS. OF COURSE IPHONE X WILL SELL. IF IT DIDN'T SELL HOW COME IM BUYING ONE? LOL

To be fair, nobody has said that. It seems you're just trying to smear people because you're in the minority on this one.

Every minor iteration (the 's' series) has sold massively. There's no sound reason to think that a major release won't do the same. Yes, there are potential problems with announcing weeks before launch, but you're assuming Apple are just going to leave it until the X is available. I think that's naive. We've not hearing much now because they don't want to dampen the 8's, but you can expect to hear a great deal in the days before it goes on sale.

 

[BillyBobT]

To be fair, nobody has said that. It seems you're just trying to smear people because you're in the minority on this one.

Every minor iteration (the 's' series) has sold massively. There's no sound reason to think that a major release won't do the same. Yes, there are potential problems with announcing weeks before launch, but you're assuming Apple are just going to leave it until the X is available. I think that's naive. We've not hearing much now because they don't want to dampen the 8's, but you can expect to hear a great deal in the days before it goes on sale.

Indeed we shall and I will be all ears

 

[JPack]

Timing is everything. When Apple announces something on stage, there's a certain amount of hype combined with the help of journalism to sell the devices on impulse the following week.

With iPhone X, customers have nearly 2 months to mull over a $999 decision. There's a reason why salespeople try to convince you to buy today and not go home to think about a new car for two months then come back. iPhone X faces significant headwind, not just due to pricing but also timing and shipping delays.

The results we're seeing from iPhone 8 is evidence consumers won't buy Apple just because it's Apple.

 

[AdonisSMU]

Steve Jobs' corpse has more talent than anyone you mentioned. The reason why that talent is not needed is because Jobs created the Apple fanboys that no longer care about facts or perspective. Just an ever expanding echo chamber.

Doubtful. Steve Jobs wouldn’t be half as great as he was without Tim Cook and the rest of the gang.
[doublepost=1506144196][/doublepost]

Timing is everything. When Apple announces something on stage, there's a certain amount of hype combined with the help of journalism to sell the devices on impulse the following week.

With iPhone X, customers have nearly 2 months to mull over a $999 decision. There's a reason why salespeople try to convince you to buy today and not go home to think about a new car for two months then come back. iPhone X faces significant headwind, not just due to pricing but also timing and shipping delays.

The results we're seeing from iPhone 8 is evidence consumers won't buy Apple just because it's Apple.

For many consumers the 8 isn’t a big upgrade over the 7.

 

[macTW]

The idea that people are holding out for the iphone X is only telling part of the story. Apple has historically used the shock and awe strategy to quickly unload a massive inventory right after announcing the phones. This type of demand then translated into a long term sales strategy.

This strategy is based around having the most amount of anticipation build up, announcing the device, and then immediately grabbing pre-orders and first week release in-store sales.

They are actually killing off their own hype by:

1. announcing both models at the same time
2. making people wait two months (maybe even longer now) after announcing it. this puts diminishing returns on consumer anticipation
3. a lot of consumers will take information about the iphone 8 and translate it into the iphone X. if there is issues with software, those issues will be on people's minds when the iphone X is released.
4. two months of slow sales will have an immediate impact of not only word of mouth marketing dynamics but also using the stores themselves as a marketing tool. Slow stores is bad from a marketing standpoint.

None of those points will be true or are true.

Another armchair analyst thinking he knows more than professionals.

 

[SRLMJ23]

I think iPhone X sales will suffer a little bit because of the iPhone 8/8+ BUT also the crazy demand for the Apple Watch Series 3 LTE+GPS (which I ordered) & the non LTE S3 model. If you take the cheapest of each model, so $400.00 plus tax for the S3 LTE, and $1,000 plus tax for the 64gb iPhone X, that is around lets just say $1,500 for simplicity. Then you have to remember the $10.00 a month for the S3 LTE service, so that is another $120.00 a year. To a lot of people that is an absolutely outrageous amount of money! I thank the Lord everyday that I am able to afford technology like this (not trying to sound cocky at all,) but to a lot people who bought the $400.00 S3 LTE, I do not know if they will be able to afford/justify both the S3 (plus the $120.00 a year) AND the iPhone 8/8+/X.

I am getting the iPhone X and leaning towards the 256gb model. So that will be $1,150 plus tax (which is 8.75% where I live) so that will be $1,250.63 and I already paid for my S3 and that was $433.91 with tax, so a total of $1,684.54. Then add the $120.00 for the S3 LTE (even though that is paid monthly, I am just adding it in for a grand total) and I am at a GRAND TOTAL of $1,804.54. Think about that, and I am not even including AppleCare+ for both devices which would be $200.00 for the iPhone X, and I believe $50.00 for the S3. So add another $250.00 to the grand total for a new grand total of $2,054.54. That is pretty insane! I do not get AppleCare+ for my products since I get new ones every year and therefore am covered under Apples one year warranty. Plus, I have never dropped a phone to where it has caused any damage and always use a case with my iPhones. Already ordered my iPhone X case. AppleCare+ for me is just not worth it.

Do you think the average person can/will pay that much? I do not think a lot of them will. Apple has really made a lot of people mad by pricing a phone at $1,000 for a mere 64gb!!! Just my opinion.


PS: Do not forget the minority of people who will switch to a Samsung S8, Note 8, iPhone 6s/7/7+ or other brand because they are cheaper.

Godspeed.

-Shawn

 

[AdonisSMU]

If AirPods are anything to go by this phone will be on perpetual back order.

Remember last year Apple announced the AirPods.

Then they didn’t get released until just before Christmas.

Next, they had a ton of AirPods in the store the first day with no lines.

After the first days you couldn’t get them for literally 3 months in some cases.

They still take a week of back order almost a year after they were released.

 

[BillyBobT]

I think iPhone X sales will suffer a little bit because of the iPhone 8/8+ BUT also the crazy demand for the Apple Watch Series 3 LTE+GPS (which I ordered) & the non LTE S3 model. If you take the cheapest of each model, so $400.00 plus tax for the S3 LTE, and $1,000 plus tax for the 64gb iPhone X, that is around lets just say $1,500 for simplicity. Then you have to remember the $10.00 a month for the S3 LTE service, so that is another $120.00 a year. To a lot of people that is an absolutely outrageous amount of money! I thank the Lord everyday that I am able to afford technology like this (not trying to sound cocky at all,) but to a lot people who bought the $400.00 S3 LTE, I do not know if they will be able to afford/justify both the S3 (plus the $120.00 a year) AND the iPhone 8/8+/X.

I am getting the iPhone X and leaning towards the 256gb model. So that will be $1,150 plus tax (which is 8.75% where I live) so that will be $1,250.63 and I already paid for my S3 and that was $433.91 with tax, so a grand total of $1,684.54.

Do you think the average person can/will pay that much? I do not think a lot of them will. Apple has really made a lot of people mad by pricing a phone at $1,000 for a mere 64gb!!! Just my opinion.


PS: Do not forget the minority of people who will switch to a Samsung S8, Note 8, iPhone 6s/7/7+ or other brand because they are cheaper.

Godspeed.

-Shawn

Financing and payment plans come to mind

 

[AdonisSMU]

I think iPhone X sales will suffer a little bit because of the iPhone 8/8+ BUT also the crazy demand for the Apple Watch Series 3 LTE+GPS (which I ordered) & the non LTE S3 model. If you take the cheapest of each model, so $400.00 plus tax for the S3 LTE, and $1,000 plus tax for the 64gb iPhone X, that is around lets just say $1,500 for simplicity. Then you have to remember the $10.00 a month for the S3 LTE service, so that is another $120.00 a year. To a lot of people that is an absolutely outrageous amount of money! I thank the Lord everyday that I am able to afford technology like this (not trying to sound cocky at all,) but to a lot people who bought the $400.00 S3 LTE, I do not know if they will be able to afford/justify both the S3 (plus the $120.00 a year) AND the iPhone 8/8+/X.

I am getting the iPhone X and leaning towards the 256gb model. So that will be $1,150 plus tax (which is 8.75% where I live) so that will be $1,250.63 and I already paid for my S3 and that was $433.91 with tax, so a grand total of $1,684.54.

Do you think the average person can/will pay that much? I do not think a lot of them will. Apple has really made a lot of people mad by pricing a phone at $1,000 for a mere 64gb!!! Just my opinion.


PS: Do not forget the minority of people who will switch to a Samsung S8, Note 8, iPhone 6s/7/7+ or other brand because they are cheaper.

Godspeed.

-Shawn

The Galaxy Note 8 is almost the same price as the iPhone X at $969 bucks US. So no.

 

[First Post G]

I think iPhone X sales will suffer a little bit because of the iPhone 8/8+ BUT also the crazy demand for the Apple Watch Series 3 LTE+GPS (which I ordered) & the non LTE S3 model. If you take the cheapest of each model, so $400.00 plus tax for the S3 LTE, and $1,000 plus tax for the 64gb iPhone X, that is around lets just say $1,500 for simplicity. Then you have to remember the $10.00 a month for the S3 LTE service, so that is another $120.00 a year. To a lot of people that is an absolutely outrageous amount of money! I thank the Lord everyday that I am able to afford technology like this (not trying to sound cocky at all,) but to a lot people who bought the $400.00 S3 LTE, I do not know if they will be able to afford/justify both the S3 (plus the $120.00 a year) AND the iPhone 8/8+/X.

I am getting the iPhone X and leaning towards the 256gb model. So that will be $1,150 plus tax (which is 8.75% where I live) so that will be $1,250.63 and I already paid for my S3 and that was $433.91 with tax, so a total of $1,684.54. Then add the $120.00 for the S3 LTE (even though that is paid monthly, I am just adding it in for a grand total) and I am at a GRAND TOTAL of $1,804.54. Think about that.

Do you think the average person can/will pay that much? I do not think a lot of them will. Apple has really made a lot of people mad by pricing a phone at $1,000 for a mere 64gb!!! Just my opinion.


PS: Do not forget the minority of people who will switch to a Samsung S8, Note 8, iPhone 6s/7/7+ or other brand because they are cheaper.

Godspeed.

-Shawn

X will be slightly cannibalized by those who bought the 8, but it will still be a well above normal upgrade cycle. Price matters, but the full price you refer to doesn’t matter much. Majority of people buy on a payment plan / financing / upgrade program, so they higher face value price only amounts to $10 a month. That won’t impact buying decisions.