Analysts are wrong. Slow ip8 sales will destroy ipX sales

[The-Real-Deal82]

The iPhone 10 is going to sell. This is the most anticipated iPhone in history. Like I said in a previous post, I work at Best Buy as the Verizon rep and the amount of preorders for the 8 was not good at all. The common theme was "Nope, I'm waiting on the 10" Folks want newer and cooler. The 8 isn't bad but it's still rocking the same design as what most folks got 2-3 years ago. The general population doesn't give a damn if its faster or has more cores or fusion chips. All they see is a phone that looks the same as something that they already have...and they also see a radically changed phone (iPhone 10) that physically looks newer and cooler that's coming out in just about a month. So yeah the 10 is going to sell like hotcakes and break yet another apple record. I expect black Friday type of lines at my store when the phone launches. Tbh I don't give consider the iPhone 8 really a launch. The legit launch is gonna be when the 10 comes out. It's gonna he insane and folks are gonna be acting a damn mess. The hype for this 2017 Jesus phone is unreal. I already know I'm gonna be working a crazy ass schedule lol kill me now....actually let me get my 10 first lol

It depends on the country though doesn't it? In the US it's around £300 cheaper than in Europe. If we ignore it's a radically different looking iPhone for a minute we have to look at the price. Even on carrier plans it's at least £60p/m plus a substantial upfront fee here. It's economically impossible for a phone costing that much to have anywhere near the same level of outreach as previous iPhones. I'm sure customers you speak to are very enthusiastic, but they've taken the time to visit a phone shop. Online upgraders or people who enjoy deals make up a large segment too and so far the hype is unproven.

I think the iPhone X will sell well for its limited numbers and no doubt will sell out fast. I think this year will see a slowed year for sales as the iPhone 8 is only slightly better than an iPhone 7. Last year already showed a trend of less people upgrading due to saturated releases since the iPhone 6. I haven't seen much to suggest the X is suddenly going to be affordable to all iPhone users.

 

[GetSwole37]

People finally got fed up with Apple when the MacBook Pro with the dumb touch thing and non replaceable hard drive and no ports was released. People bought it but there was a 10% decline in sales for MacBook pros. You can say, well fanboys don't upgrade every year or two years. I have news for you, I've been in the market for a laptop for a year and I contemplated at buying the earlier models until I finally decided that I would wait until support for 32gb ram is available.

As for the X. I agree with the folks who said Apple dropped the ball. Now you seen the glass back on the 8. It's not new! We seen this before and quiet honestly. If my phone is in a case, I really don't care about the back. The only thing the X is offering me is an oled screen.the oled is subpar as some of the competitors so you really have to think about that too.

I have been waiting for the X w the thought that I wanted to get it, Go to store and determine if I wanted to keep it. Now I'm not sure I will even order it.

 

[cola79]

The X will not sell well. Assuming sales for the X go up, because there is absolutely no demand for the 8 is nonsense.

Based on that logic you could say when the people don't buy a standard car it is just because they plan to buy the new ferrari coming out in some weeks.

Yes, ferraris do sell. But they don't sell better because car sales in general go down.

Outside of this forum i have not met anyone who will buy the X. And the people do not talk about the new iPhone anymore. In fact, nobody cares for the new line up.

All iPhone owners i talked to said they are happy with their SE, 7 or 6.

And those who planned buying one after the presentation look for the 7 model instead of the 8 because they don't want to pay an extra fee just for wireless charging and some minor technical improvements.

Not to forget that glass phones have a bad image. People fear it will break quickly, so they avoid phones like that.

 

[JayIsAwesome]

It depends on the country though doesn't it? In the US it's around £300 cheaper than in Europe. If we ignore it's a radically different looking iPhone for a minute we have to look at the price. Even on carrier plans it's at least £60p/m plus a substantial upfront fee here. It's economically impossible for a phone costing that much to have anywhere near the same level of outreach as previous iPhones. I'm sure customers you speak to are very enthusiastic, but they've taken the time to visit a phone shop. Online upgraders or people who enjoy deals make up a large segment too and so far the hype is unproven.

I think the iPhone X will sell well for its limited numbers and no doubt will sell out fast. I think this year will see a slowed year for sales as the iPhone 8 is only slightly better than an iPhone 7. Last year already showed a trend of less people upgrading due to saturated releases since the iPhone 6. I haven't seen much to suggest the X is suddenly going to be affordable to all iPhone users.

The thing is tho, the iPhone 8 isn't exactly cheap either. The 256gb Plus will cost you over a 1000 dollars and it's about 6 bucks cheaper than the more high end 10 on most carrier plans. If the iPhone 8 was substantially cheaper than the 10, I could see price playing a factor in the 10 not selling but again the 8 isn't exactly cheap. I'm not in Europe (although it's on my bucket list ) but when asking folks here in the states about the 8, most are waiting on the 10.

I say that as a person who actually works in the cell phone industry. It's clear as day that the majority have no desire to get the 8 b/c they see the cooler iPhone that actually looks different launching in just a matter of weeks. The 8 looks just like the 7, which looked like the 6S, which looked like the 6. I mean this is the first iPhone design change in what? 3-4yrs? OK the techies will say that each iPhone was faster than the last. Thing is most folks don't care. Most people dont care about cores or chips and whatnot. All they see in the 8 is it looks like the same phone from 3 years ago, while the 10 actually looks different and cooler and more futuristic, if you will. The iPhone 10 is easily the most anticipated and hyped up iPhone launch in iPhone history. The lines will be long and the preorder battle will be a fun yet exhausting one. And I pretty sure I speak for all of my fellow carrier reps when I say that I'm definitely dreading working that day

 

[The Game 161]

The X will not sell well. Assuming sales for the X go up, because there is absolutely no demand for the 8 is nonsense.

Based on that logic you could say when the people don't buy a standard car it is just because they plan to buy the new ferrari coming out in some weeks.

Yes, ferraris do sell. But they don't sell better because car sales in general go down.

Outside of this forum i have not met anyone who will buy the X. And the people do not talk about the new iPhone anymore. In fact, nobody cares for the new line up.

All iPhone owners i talked to said they are happy with their SE, 7 or 6.

And those who planned buying one after the presentation look for the 7 model instead of the 8 because they don't want to pay an extra fee just for wireless charging and some minor technical improvements.

Not to forget that glass phones have a bad image. People fear it will break quickly, so they avoid phones like that.

Of course it will, it will sell out for every unit they can make.

 

[Radon87000]

Tim Cook called iPhone X a value buy so you can only imagine they are going to set for the iPhone X Plus next year. This model will sell out.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

The thing is tho, the iPhone 8 isn't exactly cheap either. The 256gb Plus will cost you over a 1000 dollars and it's about 6 bucks cheaper than the more high end 10 on most carrier plans. If the iPhone 8 was substantially cheaper than the 10, I could see price playing a factor in the 10 not selling but again the 8 isn't exactly cheap. I'm not in Europe (although it's on my bucket list ) but when asking folks here in the states about the 8, most are waiting on the 10.

I say that as a person who actually works in the cell phone industry. It's clear as day that the majority have no desire to get the 8 b/c they see the cooler iPhone that actually looks different launching in just a matter of weeks. The 8 looks just like the 7, which looked like the 6S, which looked like the 6. I mean this is the first iPhone design change in what? 3-4yrs? OK the techies will say that each iPhone was faster than the last. Thing is most folks don't care. Most people dont care about cores or chips and whatnot. All they see in the 8 is it looks like the same phone from 3 years ago, while the 10 actually looks different and cooler and more futuristic, if you will. The iPhone 10 is easily the most anticipated and hyped up iPhone launch in iPhone history. The lines will be long and the preorder battle will be a fun yet exhausting one. And I pretty sure I speak for all of my fellow carrier reps when I say that I'm definitely dreading working that day

Surprisingly the iPhone 8 is cheaper on contract here than the 7 was last year. Last year I couldn’t find a contract under £36p/m and that was with a crappy data package and £230 upfront. This year I’ve found the 8 for £28 p/m with a £200 upfront fee. Having seen the price plans for the iPhone X it appears to be half the price per month. It’s a no brainier for some.

You say the iPhone X is the most anticipated in history but I can’t agree with that due to the divided opinion it’s received. I’ve seen more negativity this release than any I can remember and from personal experiences more people criticising it based on price. The iPhone 6 attracted more widespread excitement than this and certainly more of my close friends, family and colleagues were interested last time around. In your line of work it’s best if everyone does believe it’s great, you need the commission.

 

[Olganech]

Maybe the iPhone has reached it's peak.

Maybe they have pushed the price too high. £70 or £80 a month for a phone contract is crazy.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

The idea that people are holding out for the iphone X is only telling part of the story. Apple has historically used the shock and awe strategy to quickly unload a massive inventory right after announcing the phones. This type of demand then translated into a long term sales strategy.

This strategy is based around having the most amount of anticipation build up, announcing the device, and then immediately grabbing pre-orders and first week release in-store sales.

They are actually killing off their own hype by:...

OK. So what would your strategy be? I mean it’s easy to throw rocks. Much harder to build something from them.

The iP X clearly doesn’t have enough inventory to support any kind of launch yet. Some reports suggest production hasn’t even ramped up yet. So would you have Apple delay launch of the 8 until the X is ready? That has its own set of problems. Would you have not announced the iP X even after it’s been expected since the 7 was released? That puts considerable pressure on Apple too.

The current scenario is not how Apple wanted it to play out. But in life you have to work with the situation you have not the one you wish for. Clicking your heels 3 times only works in books and movies. That said it doesn’t seem to me that anticipation for the iP X has been dampened yet. Maybe once it’s released and back ordered for months. But then some will capitulate and “settle” for the 8 because it’s available. The only way Apple loses is if the X is a hardware dud unworthy of its price. But that is not the impression given by those who got to preview it at the announcement event.

 

[nia820]

If they are caught up with demand so that you can walk into an Apple Store and buy one on Christmas Eve and they have plenty in stock, I will eat my hat.

There is so much demand for this thing. I wouldn't be surprised to see them being unable to satisfy demand until spring or summer. AirPods are still 1-2 weeks shipping, and no components in the AirPods are competing with other manufacturers in a major way.

The X is going to sell like crazy.

People keep saying this. But anytime I go to any electronics store or outlet, they are always in stock. Maybe people need to just buy in store.

 

[DeepIn2U]

I made a point about the hurricanes and now the earthquake in Mexico in a earlier post. Think about it for a second, MAJOR cities are still messed up and people who’s houses and cars were flooded are not even close to getting back to normal. FEMA takes a while. So people in Houston, Miami, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Florida Keys, and now with Hurricane Maria Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands are basically 100% destroyed. I want to make clear I am just naming some of the big cities, I do not want to forget about ALL the people effected. These people are NOT thinking about upgrading their iPhones. They have to deal with all the insurance paperwork, FEMA paperwork, car insurance paperwork, and figure if they have to rebuild their houses, have them fixed, or move to another city/town. Also, now with the earthquake in Mexico, those people that are effected are not going to be thinking about the iPhone X. I disagree with you that two months, and less for those effected by Hurricane Maria and the earthquake are enough for people to be ready to drop at least $1,000 plus tax (and $200.00 for some who get AppleCare+) on an iPhone.

I hate to say it (but it is true,) but those of us who want an iPhone X on launch day may get one because of other people’s suffering from the hurricanes, flooding, earthquake, and the terrible financial toll this has put a lot of our fellow Americans in. Sad, but true. God Bless those who are effected by these natural disasters!

I read your post, post after mine on this topic. This one more in-depth and I’m grateful for not suffering these issues however like you my heart is going out to those affected.

Those affected in Florida from Irma’s wrath have a slightly faster process. Insurance companies have been using drones to assess the damage (Bloomberg featured one such company). And yes FEMA takes a long time. Moving which is most likely critical as housing rebuilding isn’t going to start until all water is evaporated or drained from foundation.

Somehow I expect those with beach front property in Florida (non snowbirds) have great insurance plans with flood protection and quite a store of emergency funds to get buy. Never underestimate the need for greed and vanity in people though. Albeit a very small percentage will be doing ok by Christmas I hope and feel government and insurance companies have learned from that huge disaster from The hurricane that practically wiped out a state just 3yrs ago. I hope more efficient.

 

[alleggerita]

No. I think iPhone 8 sales will actually help the X tremendously. Most customers will definitely be thinking “why get a phone when it’ll be outdated in weeks when the X is out?” and “I’ll just need to pay a bit more to get the X, so why the 8?”

Most people are on instalment plans or the IUP programme or have the price of their phones heavily subsidised by telcos and the additional costs of the X is minimal when spread out over months.

 

[SRLMJ23]

I read your post, post after mine on this topic. This one more in-depth and I’m grateful for not suffering these issues however like you my heart is going out to those affected.

Those affected in Florida from Irma’s wrath have a slightly faster process. Insurance companies have been using drones to assess the damage (Bloomberg featured one such company). And yes FEMA takes a long time. Moving which is most likely critical as housing rebuilding isn’t going to start until all water is evaporated or drained from foundation.

Somehow I expect those with beach front property in Florida (non snowbirds) have great insurance plans with flood protection and quite a store of emergency funds to get buy. Never underestimate the need for greed and vanity in people though. Albeit a very small percentage will be doing ok by Christmas I hope and feel government and insurance companies have learned from that huge disaster from The hurricane that practically wiped out a state just 3yrs ago. I hope more efficient.

I agree with most all you said, however, I see that you live in Toronto (absolutely beautiful city) and you may or may not know that you can only get flood insurance through the U.S. Federal Government, which goes under the umbrella of FEMA in the end really. So, think of ALL the claims in multiple states/cities/towns/U.S. territories. It is going to take a LONG while for them to get everyone the money they need to rebuild or get out of dodge and start over. Not trying to argue with you at all, just having a good discussion...just want you to know that. FEMA is more efficient under this President and new FEMA Director it seems. They have cut A LOT of the red tape so people get their money as fast as possible...we shall see about that. I agree that some people will always have greed (think of the insurance fraud/price gouging that is going on where these hurricanes hit) and vanity. Puerto Rico is still 100% without power, and they predict that could last up to 3 months. I also agree with someone above that said that people are finally a bit fed up with Apple for all the crap that has happened the past year or so. The iPhone X will still sell out, however, I do not think it will not be as big of a war as people are predicting for the reasons above.

Also, sadly hurricane season is not over. I pray we do not get another one, but only God knows.

 

[SRLMJ23]

one thing is for sure getting up at 12am for americans will be harder than those in UK who only have to order by 8am

3:00 AM for those of us on the East Coast! It sucks!

 

[JayIsAwesome]

Surprisingly the iPhone 8 is cheaper on contract here than the 7 was last year. Last year I couldn’t find a contract under £36p/m and that was with a crappy data package and £230 upfront. This year I’ve found the 8 for £28 p/m with a £200 upfront fee. Having seen the price plans for the iPhone X it appears to be half the price per month. It’s a no brainier for some.

You say the iPhone X is the most anticipated in history but I can’t agree with that due to the divided opinion it’s received. I’ve seen more negativity this release than any I can remember and from personal experiences more people criticising it based on price. The iPhone 6 attracted more widespread excitement than this and certainly more of my close friends, family and colleagues were interested last time around. In your line of work it’s best if everyone does believe it’s great, you need the commission.

The iPhone 6 actually got plenty of backlash from the weird design to of course bendgate. This is radical departure from what folks are used to with the iPhone. The hype is definitely there. No other iPhone that I can remember has gotten this much excitement and anticipation. Even if it's good or bad, everybody is talking about it. And it's not that every customer I talk to is just saying random opinions....i would try and sell customers the iPhone 8 and was met with alot of "I'm waiting for the 10" Hell yesterday we didn't sell our first iPhone until about 4 that afternoon. There is basically no excitement for this launch. I didn't even consider this really a launch. The iPhone 10 is basically the real launch. That's when youre gonna see the lines and overall madness that is an Apple launch. With that being said, I hope everybody who got the 8 enjoys it. I got to play with the 8 and the Plus at my job (job perks ) and they're not really bad at all tbh. I'm just not a fan of the dated design but hey that's just me

 

[rocksyoursock]

I'm no analyst but I think the X will be a success. Not as huge as some imply, and not as slow as some imply. I think it will be very successful in relation to the quantity they produce. The price is out of reach for some, competition has grown, etc. I think of it as the initial launch of the iPad Pro. An iPad isn't a yearly device like a phone, sure, but I think the early adapters will definitely get the X and the mainstreamers who want a change. I do think this generation more 8s will be sold than X's but over the next gen or so, the X-type phones will be what everyone gets.

 

[michael31986]

X is super expensive it won’t sell as much as the 6s did. Non subsidizing killed iPhone sales. So many kept old phones longer now.

 

[Suckfest 9001]

Most people won't even understand what is being said. It's ok I'll join in too.

LOL OP IS NUTS. OF COURSE IPHONE X WILL SELL. IF IT DIDN'T SELL HOW COME IM BUYING ONE? LOL

If this is how you behave when people disagree with you, then maybe you should stop making these kinds of threads.

The iPhone X will outsell the 8/Plus. It’s not just me joining in on the “echo chamber,” it’s me having my own opinion and disagreeing with yours. You’re not an analyst and neither am I. Stop getting so mad about it

 

[Capeto]

I preordered an iP8+ through my carrier on Tuesday, and still managed to have it arrive on launch day on Friday. This might be interpreted as tepid reception for the iP8, but it might as well be contributed to Apple handling a launch very smoothly. The iPX is too big of a variable to point at either possibility with certainty.

That said, I think it’s going to be a very similar situation to that of AirPods - enough demand (dampened by the iP8 launch and iPX’s higher price) for the lower supply that Apple will be able to provide will keep the iPX out of stock for a good while.

 

[BillyBobT]

I preordered an iP8+ through my carrier on Tuesday, and still managed to have it arrive on launch day on Friday. This might be interpreted as tepid reception for the iP8, but it might as well be contributed to Apple handling a launch very smoothly. The iPX is too big of a variable to point at either possibility with certainty.

That said, I think it’s going to be a very similar situation to that of AirPods - enough demand (dampened by the iP8 launch and iPX’s higher price) for the lower supply that Apple will be able to provide will keep the iPX out of stock for a good while.

More time to play with my other phones until the sim free comes

 

[SRLMJ23]

People finally got fed up with Apple when the MacBook Pro with the dumb touch thing and non replaceable hard drive and no ports was released. People bought it but there was a 10% decline in sales for MacBook pros. You can say, well fanboys don't upgrade every year or two years. I have news for you, I've been in the market for a laptop for a year and I contemplated at buying the earlier models until I finally decided that I would wait until support for 32gb ram is available.

As for the X. I agree with the folks who said Apple dropped the ball. Now you seen the glass back on the 8. It's not new! We seen this before and quiet honestly. If my phone is in a case, I really don't care about the back. The only thing the X is offering me is an oled screen.the oled is subpar as some of the competitors so you really have to think about that too.

I have been waiting for the X w the thought that I wanted to get it, Go to store and determine if I wanted to keep it. Now I'm not sure I will even order it.

While I agree with most of what you said as far as people getting fed up with Apple with the crap they have been pulling the last couple of years, how do you know the OLED on the iPhone X is subpar to the competitors? The OLED panels are made by Samsung, and they make the best OLED screen you can buy. Also, Apple has seemed to improve the OLED screen even more with the iPhone X with the Super Retina Display. Just wondering what your source is on this? Thanks

 

[rob.james.arias]

Thanks for the great analysis Poindexter, you are smarter than Apple's marketing team, sales team, Tim Cook, and Steve Jobs' dead corpse combined. If only YOU were running iPhone release schedules instead of the folks now, iPhone would be the best selling phone in the world and be making billions of dollars for Apple, instead of... hey wait a minute!

They did lose $50 billion in net worth over the last 10 days. Stocks are down 5% and are expected to drop another 5% for a total loss of $100 billion. Maybe he should be in charge of iPhone release schedules lol.

 

[Juan007]

They did lose $50 billion in net worth over the last 10 days. Stocks are down 5% and are expected to drop another 5% for a total loss of $100 billion. Maybe he should be in charge of iPhone release schedules lol.

Apple shareholders don't care, Tim Cook doesn't care. Stocks move from day to day like the wind blows. The company is focused on long-term value and that means delivering the best products to its customers.

"If you want me to do things only for ROI reasons, you should get out of this stock." - Tim Cook himself. So sell.

 

[KPOM]

Yeah not happening. If people really weren’t going to buy the X, the 8 would have done much better than all appearances suggest. Every other iterative cycle has performed excellent and your theory would suggest people have stopped buying iPhones altogether.

The X will fly off the shelves as fast as Apple can make them. If they could have made them fast enough they’d have launched this weekend. I was at an AT&T store getting my Watch 3 activated. Traffic was dead but the reps didn’t seem worried. They had only 3 people scheduled to work the store so AT&T seemed to know this wouldn’t be a traditional launch. While he got my watch plan started we were talking the X. We both agreed that it would get long lines and that he was lucky to be able to reserve a phone ahead of time from AT&T.
[doublepost=1506228716][/doublepost]

If AirPods are anything to go by this phone will be on perpetual back order.

Remember last year Apple announced the AirPods.

Then they didn’t get released until just before Christmas.

Next, they had a ton of AirPods in the store the first day with no lines.

After the first days you couldn’t get them for literally 3 months in some cases.

They still take a week of back order almost a year after they were released.

That’s a nice problem to have.

My guess is that Apple knows its supply chain and picked 11/3 for the release date as a reason. Shipping times will slip quickly but they will catch up by Q1-18.

 

[JayIsAwesome]

People keep saying this. But anytime I go to any electronics store or outlet, they are always in stock. Maybe people need to just buy in store.

Have a crap load of them at various best buy stores
[doublepost=1506232862][/doublepost]

My guess is that Apple knows its supply chain and picked 11/3 for the release date as a reason. Shipping times will slip quickly but they will catch up by Q1-18.

This. If Apple didn't have any stock of the 10s, there's no way in hell they'd announce an actual launch date. Pretty sure Timmy know's Apple's inventory better than all of us. Will the 10 get backordered? Of course. It's arguably the most anticipated iPhone in history (even beating the original and the 4) But will the backorder be as bad as some are saying? Me thinks not.

*side note* We're already getting iPhone 10 stuff in at my store. The Zagg screens came in last week