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With Apple set to report earnings for the third fiscal quarter and second calendar quarter of 2011 next Tuesday, July 19th, Wall Street analysts are beginning to line up their final predictions for Apple's performance. As noted by Barron's, a pair of analysts this morning issued new reports that show last-minute bumps in their estimates for the quarter.

Citigroup's Richard Gardner is now pegging quarterly iPhone shipments at 18 million units, an increase of 2 million units over his previous estimate and now above the Wall Street consensus in the range of 16.5-17 million units. Results at that level would come in just below the record 18.6 million iPhones shipped in the previous quarter and would be a very strong performance given the fact that many consumers are likely holding out for the next-generation iPhone.

Gardner places his iPad estimate at 8 million units, slightly above Wall Street consensus and well ahead of Apple's 4.69 million units shipped in the previous quarter as the company struggled to meet demand as it shifted production from the original iPad to the iPad 2. Overall, Gardner sees Apple's earnings per share now coming in at a healthy $6.34 for the quarter, nearly matching last quarter's strong performance.

In a separate report, UBS analyst Maynard Um similarly tweaked his estimates, pushing his iPad shipment figure up by 200,000 to 7.9 million while holding steady at a prediction of 18.35 million iPhone units. Um is looking for earnings per share of $5.88 and suggests that evidence of Apple's patent settlement with Nokia may appear in the financial results.

As always, analyst estimates are to be taken with a grain of salt, and professional analysts are known to consistently underestimate Apple's performance, suggesting that the company may indeed once again post very strong numbers. And with even the professional analysts increasing their estimates down the homestretch toward the earnings release, Apple appears to once again be in solid position.

Article Link: Analysts Increasing Estimates Ahead of Apple Earnings Release
 

Vantage Point

macrumors 65816
Mar 1, 2010
1,169
1
New Jersey
The analysts seem to increase there estimates every time and Apple still beat the estimates. Maybe they should take a punt on a really high figure.

The way the market works is the price of the stock goes up if it beats the estimates and down if the numbers are lower - not always true but that is the game in general because current prices reflect the so-called analysts estimates. It is a game they have played for a very long time. Just like 'buy the rumor and sell the news'
 
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Vandad NP

macrumors newbie
Jul 8, 2011
3
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I would have really liked to have bought APPL shares during the year 2000.
 
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newdeal

macrumors 68020
Oct 21, 2009
2,411
1,528
...

this will be apples first non record quarter in a long time. Other than the ipad 2 there wasn't any revolutionary hardware put out. Next quarter will make up for it with Lion and iphone 5 plus back to school
 
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Spoony

macrumors regular
Feb 14, 2011
146
0
Listening to the earnings calls is always really fun. If you are into finance type stuff when they start talking figures it like the equivalent of Michael Jordan in his prime just taking some JV High School kid to town on the court. Just unreal figures.

The best earnings call was when Steve hoped on out of nowhere and talked for 5 minutes (he's never on them) and then took questions. Even the analysts were shocked and almsot seemed taken aback just asking Steve questions. Almost like kneeling down to the king as a humble servant.
 
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Popeye206

macrumors 68040
Sep 6, 2007
3,148
836
NE PA USA
Sad to see Apple getting pummled by the competitors.... especially in the Tablet space... sad! :p

What's even sadder is a sold all my Apple stock at $150 and bought worthless solar stock that has done nothing by loose value. BFM! (B=Big, M=Mistake and F... well, you fill in the blank).
 
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hcho3

macrumors 68030
May 13, 2010
2,783
0
Apple is going to hit 1000 dollars and become the first trillion dollars company in about 3-5 years. They have a strong shot to become the first two trillion dollars company as well. This company has no limit right now with iPad, MBA and iPhone. These are the best mobile devices you can buy today.
 
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johnnymg

macrumors 65816
Nov 16, 2008
1,316
6
This should be a fun 'show' next Tuesday.

The golden Apple tree will produce a lot of fruit this year! :cool:
 
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cvaldes

macrumors 68040
Dec 14, 2006
3,237
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somewhere else
No, the margins on the iPad are pretty slender (for Apple's standards).

Their fattest margins are on the iPhone. That's what has driven their profitability. But don't blindly listen to me. Go read their SEC filings and review the port-mortems from the analyst conference calls.
 
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Spoony

macrumors regular
Feb 14, 2011
146
0
No, the margins on the iPad are pretty slender (for Apple's standards).

Their fattest margins are on the iPhone. That's what has driven their profitability. But don't blindly listen to me. Go read their SEC filings and review the port-mortems from the analyst conference calls.

Yup. it's all about the iphone when it comes to WS. more than 1/2 of apples Revenue is that little guy. iPad is great for headlines and blog talk but the iPhone is what the analysts really care about. (ipad at some point will be a huge money maker though so sales numbers are important obviously)

it comes down to:
1. Number of iPhones sold
2. ASP of the products
3. Gross Margin.

The first one always seems to beat the street. The second two if they hold constant or increase the stock goes up. If the GM or the ASP go down WS freaks out.
 
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RalfTheDog

macrumors 68000
Feb 23, 2010
1,549
361
Lagrange Point
No, the margins on the iPad are pretty slender (for Apple's standards).

Their fattest margins are on the iPhone. That's what has driven their profitability. But don't blindly listen to me. Go read their SEC filings and review the port-mortems from the analyst conference calls.

The iPad sells iPhones. Think of it as a loss leader that makes a direct profit.
 
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johnnymg

macrumors 65816
Nov 16, 2008
1,316
6
Yup. it's all about the iphone when it comes to WS. more than 1/2 of apples Revenue is that little guy. iPad is great for headlines and blog talk but the iPhone is what the analysts really care about. (ipad at some point will be a huge money maker though so sales numbers are important obviously)

it comes down to:
1. Number of iPhones sold
2. ASP of the products
3. Gross Margin.

The first one always seems to beat the street. The second two if they hold constant or increase the stock goes up. If the GM or the ASP go down WS freaks out.

While I'll grant you the iphone is the BIG Kahuna:
I wouldn't be so eager to discount the potential of the ipad. This last quarter was the first quarter where the ipad wasn't SIGNIFICANTLY constrained on the supply side. Apple could have probably sold an additional 2+m with more supply ...... but regardless, they had "decent" supply. Anyway, my estimate of 8.5m @$600 ASP and GM of 33% puts the ipad 'officially' into the huge money maker cat. It only gets better going forward. :) Apple will probably sell ~11m this quarter. The GM on the ipad has been steadily increasing but I don't expect it to go above 35%. Big #'s indeed (even if a LOT less than the iphone) for this EC and the future!

cheers
JohnG
 
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ipoppy

macrumors 6502
Oct 12, 2006
423
9
UK
Typical manipulation of pros an hedge fund managers. Make it loud now to draw retail into the game and then short through theirs stops...or in other words "buy on rumours, sell on news". Its funny how that story repeats itself so often.
 
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milo

macrumors 604
Sep 23, 2003
6,888
518
I would have really liked to have bought APPL shares during the year 2000.

No you wouldn't, they tanked just after that and stayed down for a couple years. You would have liked to have bought in 2002 or 2003.
 
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SeniorGato1

macrumors regular
Jun 28, 2010
219
11
If iPhones hit that #, it'd be quite impressive due to the year old technology and Android gaining steam. However it's very well possible due to Apple expanding into other markets.
 
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Masterotas

macrumors newbie
Apr 20, 2011
7
0
My guess is Ipad Sales are going to be insanely high

Maybe this is a fools measure, but in the past 2 months, I have seen more and more people using the Ipad on the train, and have been seeing a greater number of them in public areas. Originally I thought people only used them for an at home television alternative, as an alternative to a paper newspaper, or for Skyping, but now I'm not so sure. I anticipate that the numbers for this quarter are very understated. Though of course this is based on completely unscientific methods. Anyone else notice this?
 
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