Android to Surpass iPhone in Market Share by 2012?

[MacRumors]

Computerworld reports that research firm Gartner is forecasting significant growth in Google's Android operating system for smart phones, noting that it expects Android to surpass Apple's iPhone to claim the number two spot behind Symbian OS with 14.5% of the global smart phone market by 2012.

While the first Android product release, the T-Mobile G1, only won a lukewarm response, Android 1.5 (code-named Cupcake) is well thought-out, Dulaney said. Other expected improvements in Android for its application store and development environment will be "backed by the power of Google's search engine," he said. "Google's other up-and-coming consumer and enterprise products should make[Android] a dominant platform."

And because Android and Google operate in an "integrative and open environment, [they] could easily top ... the singular Apple," he said.

Android will also run on phones from several manufacturers, helping its growth, especially when compared to the iPhone, Dulaney said. In 2010, as many as 40 models of Android devices will ship, and the next OS update, code-named Donut, will ship in the second quarter, Dulaney predicted.

The predicted margin is small, however, with Apple predicted to grab 13.7% of the smart phone market in 2012. Both companies are forecasted to take significant share from Symbian, which currently holds approximately 50% market share but is expected to fall to 39% over that time.

Article Link: Android to Surpass iPhone in Market Share by 2012?

 

[hanpa]

Probably, unless Apple recognizes the competition and responds by:
- Removal of 3g cellular restrictions not technically motivated at least outside of the US
- Allowing at least music apps like Spotify to run in the background
- Improving the app approval process to become more like the Android process
- Flash support in Safari (with an option to disable this)
- SDK that can execute on other platforms like Windows or Linux and that uses a more user-friendly and intuitive language than Objective-C

 

[spillproof]

Other expected improvements in Android for its application store and development environment will be "backed by the power of Google's search engine,"

As in web apps?

 

[laprej]

Doubtful

I realize that Android is supposed to be awesome, and it is fairly nice having programmed for it in the past. But the openness to which they refer in the article is really a fault in this case and not a benefit.

For example, every phone manufacturer is going to have their own set of features. Some may have cameras, vibration, video playback, etc. With the iPhone, you know exactly what is there and what the device you're targeting can do. You can build better applications to utilize the specific hardware.

Apple takes some heat for having vendor lock-in, but it allows them to release beautiful hardware that just works whether it's phones or computers. It's not Windows code that gives BSODs but third-party drivers most of the time.

Android may end up taking some market share, but I doubt that it will beat the iPhone or Blackberry.

 

[nehunte]

Every phone that comes out after the iPhone is supposed to surpass the iPhone by 20**. This is getting old. It took how many years for someone to beat up on Nokia? That's right, it'll be a long time before you see a dent in the iPhone's armor.

I'm going to make a new smartphone next week. It's an iPhone-killer. Guaranteed.

 

[spencers]

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight, a cupcake is going to take down iPhone?

 

[Daphtdazz]

Well, they seem pretty sure...

I mean, how else can they be coming up with a 2 year prediction to an accuracy of 0.67%?

You just wonder about the people making these claims. What have they done, exactly? Sat down in front of Excel, typed in a few numbers and then just written out the answer without even thinking about it? I suppose we should be thankful that it wasn't:

iPhone: 13.728285919847%
Android: 14.491509184751%

etc.

It seems like a big leap anyway to predict a 7 fold market share increase, let alone think it will beat the iPhone whose momentum seems very strong.

 

[MadGoat]

Of course Android might surpass the iPhone. The iPhone is limited to 1 device whereas the Android is spanned over many more devices and will continue to branch out.

The success of the iPhone will not be surpassed by any single device however.

 

[Compile 'em all]

- SDK that can execute on other platforms like Windows or Linux and that uses a more user-friendly and intuitive language than Objective-C

This is by far far the most ridiculous request I have ever read.

You want them to use a programming language other than Objective-C?

I don't even know where to start. LOL.

 

[Speedy2]

Probably, unless Apple recognizes the competition and responds by:
- Removal of 3g cellular restrictions not technically motivated at least outside of the US
- Allowing at least music apps like Spotify to run in the background
- Improving the app approval process to become more like the Android process
- Flash support in Safari (with an option to disable this)
- SDK that can execute on other platforms like Windows or Linux and that uses a more user-friendly and intuitive language than Objective-C

None of these things play any role for the iPhone market share.
Far more relevant are:
- cheaper low-end models, iPhone Nano (not that likely)
- dropping provider exclusiveness (very likely, already happening: UK, Canada, more to come)

Analysts keep forgetting that Apple doesn't care that much about market share of sold handsets, but more about market share of profit. Thus, it could very well be that Android overtakes iPhone in a few years, given that manufacturers offer cheap phones running Android. If these phones are any good or if they generate much profit: I highly doubt it.

 

[ct2k7]

This is by far far the most ridiculous request I have ever read.

You want them to use a programming language other than Objective-C?

I don't even know where to start. LOL.

Erm.. you're being closed minded.

The SDK is limited only to the Apple OS, granted, it relies on hooks, however, you are alienating a hell of a lot of people from developing on the platform.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

I'm not 100% sure of Garter's rationalization but it seems to be that there will be 40 different android models available (presumably on different networks). That is really the key. The equation is something like: the sum of all Android phones on multiple networks = the sum of all iPhones on ATT. However, if Apple spreads the iPhone love to Verizon when ATT rolls out LTE it changes the equation dramatically, and reduces Android to the iPhone-haters market. I have to believe Apple sees the trend and will not wait too long to let Android mature before it makes a move to squash it. Apple's just bidding its time watching the ant walk into the trap before it ambushes.

 

[danredwing]

Have these people at Gartner actually used a G1 vs an iPhone?

I don't mean to be rude here. I would never claim that Android isn't a good, interesting and open platform, but I've used both and will definitely say that the Android Platform is no iPhone. It feels like software in a shell and is missing the elegant integration of software and hardware that Apple and the iPhone are known for.

There may be more of them out there at some point because they are easier to get and work with more carriers and there are more companies making their version, so through competition, the prices will be lower.....sound familiar?

 

[Speedy2]

Erm.. you're being closed minded.

The SDK is limited only to the Apple OS, granted, it relies on hooks, however, you are alienating a hell of a lot of people from developing on the platform.

What are you guys talking about?
Didn't Adobe just show a new Flash IDE that generates native iPhone Apps ?

 

[Darth.Titan]

Of course Android might surpass the iPhone. The iPhone is limited to 1 device whereas the Android is spanned over many more devices and will continue to branch out.

You, sir have hit the nail on the head.

 

[malohkan]

I think the realistic expectation is: "If Apple doesn't make any more changes to the iPhone for the next 10 years, there will be an Android phone to beat it by 2020!!"

I feel like the trend is going to stay the same as it was with the G1. They're like "ooo look at our neat new features!!" Unfortunately, the iPhone/iPod just got those features, only better, just before you launched.

The competition just can't stay ahead, and Apple is going to keep it that way.

 

[Tilpots]

Now that Android is coming to Verizon and they will be collaborating on handsets, I have no doubt Android will surpass the iPhone in terms of user numbers. Will it surpass in quality? That remains to be seen...

 

[No1451]

Of course Android might surpass the iPhone. The iPhone is limited to 1 device whereas the Android is spanned over many more devices and will continue to branch out.

The success of the iPhone will not be surpassed by any single device however.

Only comment in this thread that has any sort of logic or lack of fanboyism behind it. I agree, 100%, as a platform it definitely has potential since it can be rolled out into 30 different devices while the iPhone is a single product with a single very specific feature set.

 

[dejo]

- SDK that can execute on other platforms like Windows or Linux and that uses a more user-friendly and intuitive language than Objective-C

Curious. Why do you think Objective-C is not user-friendly and intuitive?

 

[carmenodie]

You notice that Google's stock is way up! As of this writing it is now trading at $507.29 a share and it is 10-7-09 and 12:56pm. Look, Android is going into all these phones like a who** not b/c it is some supper grand OS but to get Google's share prices up. And believe me it will be ad laced up the a**.

So, is this god news for consumers? Hell no!
It is good news for wall street and stock holders.
Android=lots of ads to plague you with.

 

[Povilas]

Android is a mobile OS. iPhone is a device. Android is and will be used in many devices by many manufacturers. iPhone is only one device, but if you add iPod Touch which runs the same OS I don't think Android can surpass it by 2012.

 

[slffl]

To quote the bit on Jimmy Fallon... 'Who Cares?'

Obviously market share doesn't mean crap as is evident in the OS market.

 

[dandaley]

Gartner tries to shape the future of technology with their reports. They are not trying to predict anything. Managers look at these reports and shape their strategy based on them. I have been at companies that "listened" to Gartner to help shape their direction. Sad, but true.

 

[OllyW]

One advantage I see Android having over the iPhone is the fact that it has a number of manufacturers releasing new models throughout the year, keeping their phones fresh and up to date and with good availability through multiple operators.

Apple seems to be set on a one update per year cycle. This means they end up having a 3 or 4 month flat period when they don't sell many iPhones because everyone knows a new model is about to be released, followed by a couple of months of madness as everyone scrambles to get the new phone and the supply chain struggles to keep up.

 

[paradox00]

None of these things play any role for the iPhone market share.
Far more relevant are:
- cheaper low-end models, iPhone Nano (not that likely)
- dropping provider exclusiveness (very likely, already happening: UK, Canada, more to come)

Completely agree.