Android to Surpass iPhone in Market Share by 2012?

[charliehustle]

None of these things play any role for the iPhone market share.
Far more relevant are:
- cheaper low-end models, iPhone Nano (not that likely)
- dropping provider exclusiveness (very likely, already happening: UK, Canada, more to come)

Analysts keep forgetting that Apple doesn't care that much about market share of sold handsets, but more about market share of profit. Thus, it could very well be that Android overtakes iPhone in a few years, given that manufacturers offer cheap phones running Android. If these phones are any good or if they generate much profit: I highly doubt it.

generally speaking, a company that only makes software (google) has higher profit margins compared to a company that makes hardware and software..(apple)

and it seems like it's possible for google to take over, as they will sell to any phone manufacturer, but apple is stuck with only one device..

now if it's going to be a better phone, thats a different story, this is just market share, and profits..

 

[GenesisST]

Curious. Why do you think Objective-C is not user-friendly and intuitive?

Cause it's not. I played with the iPhone SDK for a test app and had to relearn a few things. For example, the + or - in front of a method, which means instance or class method (or vice-versa). I could find the right information (or Google keywords) to get it without a few bouts of swearing.

Then my company got a contract to port an iPhone app to Android. And by port I mean rewrite since we can't share anything from obj-c to Java.

Coming from a C/C++ background, the learning curve was really quick. Plus Google did a relatively good job with its SDK and emulator which work pretty well on both Mac and Windows.

 

[lazyrighteye]

The SDK is limited only to the Apple OS, granted, it relies on hooks, however, you are alienating a hell of a lot of people from developing on the platform.

You say that like it's a bad thing.
Don't we already have enough junk in the App Store?
If not, there are now millions of Flash developers eagerly waiting to do their best (worst?).

In most every other scenario, I'm very liberal... very supportive of openness. But when it comes to developing a tool or utility, like a computer, a phone, etc., I very much fall in the category that appreciates Apple's closed system approach over an Open Source approach. The closed approach helps ensure an efficient & consistent user experience. But I'm also a quality over quantity kind of guy - which clearly does not represent everyone.

 

[Ericatomars]

yeah that they were also sure that chicago would get the olympics! It didnt happen...

Once android gets a grip on apple and its actually at the point where they could have that chance Apple will change the game! Thats just how it goes... There is a reason why so many people stand behind Apple's products....

 

[Rodimus Prime]

I am not surprised by this at all.
There are cracks appearing in the iPhones armor very quickly.

1. It is suck on one network and will not take a chance to go with Verizon.

2. Only one manufactor is going to sting. Android is announced already on 4 different companies phones (Motoral, HTC, Samsung,and Nokia) I have heard rumors of Sony being added to that list as well.

3. Apple very poor and single point app approval process is starting to a lot of problems. When Jail Break stores are kicking off it clearly people want more choices. Hell people Jail break just to get certain apps that apple will not approve or take to long to approve. Compared to google system where the app store is just one of many locations to buy apps.

4. The very limited customization of iPhones OS is very limiting.

I think point 3 is the biggest problem with the iPhone OS and will be what in the long run what will let others over take it.

 

[xwk88]

Erm.. you're being closed minded.

The SDK is limited only to the Apple OS, granted, it relies on hooks, however, you are alienating a hell of a lot of people from developing on the platform.

I dont understand what you mean, you want them to make an sdk for people to develop apps for other devices like windows and linux based????? y would they do that that would not help them it might actually hurt them...... and besides I think they're just fine on the developing side seem a heck of a lot of people ar developing since the already have like 70k apps......


on another note u think gartner is taking into consideration that the iphone is soon gonna be on multiple networks and free from at&t that will solve most of its problems since then ATT will be forced to be less greedy and plans will be more competitive more features will be available from a network perspective and the best phone on the market will be even better just my two cents....

 

[TedIsraelson]

Similar business model to Mac

Sounds amazing like the same business model that has been followed by the Mac. A device with OS competing against an OS that will run on many devices. Current Mac market share 5.12% current Windows 92.77% (based on numbers from Market Share) . Does anyone else see this connection?

 

[Speedy2]

generally speaking, a company that only makes software (google) has higher profit margins compared to a company that makes hardware and software..(apple)

Depends on what you're selling. How much money is Google really making with those Android licenses and the market place? How much are the handset makers making with Android?

Google MAY have a better margin, but Apple has a much bigger market for sure since they add most of the value.

 

[Speedy2]

Sounds amazing like the same business model that has been followed by the Mac. A device with OS competing against an OS that will run on many devices. Current Mac market share 5.12% current Windows 92.77% (based on numbers from Market Share) . Does anyone else see this connection?

Yes. Google tries to be a better Microsoft by providing an _open_ software platform for multiple hardware makers, but they will not replicate MS's success, since MS dominated the OS market from the beginning and knew how to milk it whereas Google was late to a crowded party. Google may offer cheap drinks, but not fancier ones.

computers: MS and Intel take the cream and will do for a long time thanks to their near-unbreakable monopolies, most others are struggling.

mobiles: Nokia TOOK the cream in the past, in the future it will be Nokia, RIMM and Apple. It don't see any chance for Google to make equally big profits here. Android is merely treated as a means to secure their Web monopoly.

 

[MacFly123]

All I have to say is EAT IT MICROSOFT! Windows Mobile SUCKS lol

I love seeing the way things are going for Microsoft. It is like watching a giant passing out about to SLAM and hit the ground collapsed. Always too little too late!

 

[zacman]

Apple already seems to have lost some parts of the European market with the 3GS because they didn't add the features that are frequently used there (like HSUPA, (r)SAP, etc.). For example GFK numbers showed that the Android based HTC Hero outsold the 3GS in Germany.

 

[dashiel]

Cause it's not. I played with the iPhone SDK for a test app and had to relearn a few things. For example, the + or - in front of a method, which means instance or class method (or vice-versa). I could find the right information (or Google keywords) to get it without a few bouts of swearing.

Then my company got a contract to port an iPhone app to Android. And by port I mean rewrite since we can't share anything from obj-c to Java.

Coming from a C/C++ background, the learning curve was really quick. Plus Google did a relatively good job with its SDK and emulator which work pretty well on both Mac and Windows.

hmm i've had the opposite experience. coming from an actionscript/javascript background i've been thoroughly impressed with the sdk in particular and obj-c in general. there's definitely a learning curve, but i suspect that would be true going to any real programming language.

 

[jmadlena]

Android vs iPhone

Android is gonna take iPhone TO THE GROUND!

It's not a part of your system.

EDIT:

generally speaking, a company that only makes software (google) has higher profit margins compared to a company that makes hardware and software..(apple)

I don't see how Google, who licenses Android for free, has a higher profit margin than Apple, who sells the hardware (at a price), and the software (at a price to iPod touch users). I think Apple has higher margins in that aspect.

Google might have indirect revenue sources due to manufacturers licensing Android (ads, etc), but I don't believe there is any direct revenue. I stand to be corrected.

 

[pik.]

if iPhone OS remains to 2 cell phones then YES in the future iPhone will decrease...

it is sure.

Apple must do Phones in 3 price scale...fully unlocked and without the stupid blocks in terms of closed OS.

 

[nagromme]

I think point 3 is the biggest problem with the iPhone OS and will be what in the long run what will let others over take it.

Valid points, except you're looking at a micro-niche of power-users, while the iPhone's massive growth comes from a much broader market than that. Android will (and does) take some power-user market share, and I look forward to seeing where it goes.

The big thing though is DEVELOPER share. Apps. Android will run--in different flavors--on a number of different phones, offering choice in screen size, features, hard vs. virtual keys, etc. That sounds great--but will the same APP run on all those flavors? No. The app market will be fragmented among incompatible models. There's no good way out of that--it's one advantage Apple's model will hang on to.

 

[Povilas]

Cause it's not. I played with the iPhone SDK for a test app and had to relearn a few things. For example, the + or - in front of a method, which means instance or class method (or vice-versa). I could find the right information (or Google keywords) to get it without a few bouts of swearing.

Then my company got a contract to port an iPhone app to Android. And by port I mean rewrite since we can't share anything from obj-c to Java.

Coming from a C/C++ background, the learning curve was really quick. Plus Google did a relatively good job with its SDK and emulator which work pretty well on both Mac and Windows.

For me Objective-C is user-friendly enough.

 

[jholzner]

Cause it's not. I played with the iPhone SDK for a test app and had to relearn a few things. For example, the + or - in front of a method, which means instance or class method (or vice-versa). I could find the right information (or Google keywords) to get it without a few bouts of swearing.

Then my company got a contract to port an iPhone app to Android. And by port I mean rewrite since we can't share anything from obj-c to Java.

Coming from a C/C++ background, the learning curve was really quick. Plus Google did a relatively good job with its SDK and emulator which work pretty well on both Mac and Windows.

What you really meant was easier for you so you don't have to do as much. Judging by the number of apps in the app store it doesn't appear that most developers are worrying to much about it.

 

[Rodimus Prime]

Valid points, except you're looking at a micro-niche of power-users, while the iPhone's massive growth comes from a much broader market than that. Android will (and does) take some power-user market share, and I look forward to seeing where it goes.

The big thing though is DEVELOPER share. Apps. Android will run--in different flavors--on a number of different phones, offering choice in screen size, features, hard vs. virtual keys, etc. That sounds great--but will the same APP run on all those flavors? No. The app market will be fragmented among incompatible models. There's no good way out of that--it's one advantage Apple's model will hang on to.

yet all the one advantage the apple model has it killed by the fact that how difficult it is to get an app approved and no way to directly sell it to the consumer.

That is what going to hurt apple in the good devs leaving. The best devs are starting to get fed up with apple system and looking elsewhere.

 

[jmadlena]

yet all the one advantage the apple model has it killed by the fact that how difficult it is to get an app approved and no way to directly sell it to the consumer.

That is what going to hurt apple in the good devs leaving. The best devs are starting to get fed up with apple system and looking elsewhere.

You're right, the app numbers really reflect that developers are leaving... only 85,000 apps. Ouch. Just because a few bloggers complain about the process, which I'm sure is frustrating for developers, doesn't mean that's how every dev feels. I just think there is too much incentive for devs to leave the iPhone. Too much money to be made.

I'll believe it when I see a few percent of mid- to upper-sized developers leaving.

 

[happydude]

Of course Android might surpass the iPhone. The iPhone is limited to 1 device whereas the Android is spanned over many more devices and will continue to branch out.

The success of the iPhone will not be surpassed by any single device however.

exactly. just as in how macbooks are the highest selling laptop (on universities at least, i think that stands globally) brand but windows operating system far out dominates compared to apple os.

at any rate, apple could stem off this tide by getting off their stupid contract with at&t and open up to all carriers in the u.s. they're doing it in other countries. hopefully here soon.

 

[QCassidy352]

no possible way can anyone predict what the smartphone market will look like in 2012. that's an eon in cell phone years.

 

[bruinsrme]

Looking at this from my perspective I can see why.
I do not prefer to have the "Steve Jobs phone" staring at me in the face every time I turn the phne on. I prefer to have the appearance of the icons, background, ringtones and whatever else I feel like changing without having to jump through all the hoops of jailbreaking.
If the Android platforms offer a decent distribution channel for their work, a hassle free user interface, a major carrier (ATT or verizon) and music manager well that is what I am currently looking for.
I think such a platfe available prior to June 2010 when I will be ready to change.
So the Android platform already has at least 3 potential customers

 

[cnorth3]

yet all the one advantage the apple model has it killed by the fact that how difficult it is to get an app approved and no way to directly sell it to the consumer.

That is what going to hurt apple in the good devs leaving. The best devs are starting to get fed up with apple system and looking elsewhere.

Yeah, it's almost impossible to get an app approved (other than the 70k that have already been approved) And sure, most devs would much rather sell direct than have to put up with all the visibility and market power of the App Store.

Apple is such a nuisance!

 

[michaellinehan]

Market share drivel

"it expects Android to surpass Apple's iPhone to claim the number two spot behind Symbian OS with 14.5% of the global smart phone market"

Simplistic example --- If one company has 95% of the market with a free phone and another company has 5% of the market with a $500 phone, who's better off?

Other articles go on and on about Microsoft's massively greater "market share". But with maybe tens times more market share than Apple, MS's market capitalization (worth) is only about 1.4 times as much as Apple.

Market share, as a bare number, is meaningless.

 

[bastiangatten]

I don't think so.

Ya if apple didn't further the iPhone OS anymore between now and then maybe. But you know they will come up with something great soon anyways. And I don't think apple is seaking to have the most sold product. They just want to have the best product. Look at the Mac Computer. It isn't the most. It's the best!