Personally, my thought process for Mac security measures is more centered around risk management than predictions of bad actors' behavior. I prefer spending some time up front–and money if justified–to minimize the possibility of having to deal with the fallout of an attacker putting viruses or malware on my computer. I view anti-virus and anti-malware software as a form of insurance. Yes, it sucks that I need it but I feel that having it lets me sleep better than not having it.
Also, we are all human and we make mistakes, especially when we are in a rush, distracted, or tired. Relying on constant vigilance as sole protection requires perfection. I don't think any of us can reach that standard very often, especially with something that is constantly changing and morphing.