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This is going to be my first tablet also. Not sure when I'm buying it though, as soon as I have the money, between July-December.
I for one, am going to be sticking to the even refresh cycle of the iPads, just like the way I'm going to be sticking with the even refresh cycles of the iPhone.
Yeah, the iPad 3 next year will have a retina display, but it will still be the same design. The iPad 4, in the following year, will continue having retina display, and a new design.
So, iPad 2 sometime this year, and iPad 4, sometime in 2013. Even if I get the iPad 2 at next years clearance price, I will still be happy. 😀