Anyone here into FOREX?

[~Shard~]

Good job on the tech. trade, Shard!

Err...if you dont mind, what time frame did you have and what indicators were you using?

Not at all... Perfect round top (almost!) which signals a short, a downward cross of the 89MA thru the 200MA and the 21MA thru the 9MA (short-term short signals) and an inability to break through resistance, nor hold support levels. I left the trade going overnight as I slept since the time period on this type of a trade is several hours, but not any longer (due to fear of a trend reversal). Put in a TP and SL at key support/resistance points and my TP hit.

Now that you have me looking at my chart again, it looks like it might be ready for another short (especially now thank to the US data). I'll investigate further and might open another position...

 

[~Shard~]

Thanks Nathan – I rode USDJPY down from 119.21 to 119.11, partially thanks to you making me reference my charts again for my previous post! Luckily I got out, as it seems to have recovered a bit... overall trend might still be down, but I had to head into work and couldn't monitor it anymore and didn't have time to figure out appropriate stops...

Your 5 pips will be in the mail to you tomorrow.

 

[OceanView]

The pound is unstoppable today.
Glad you guys made some money.
I am begining to realize the most dificult aspect of news trading is, getting up at all odd hours.
It has been 2 days in a row now that has been difficult for me to get up.
Better get a second alarm clock.

 

[nhallmark]

Thanks Nathan – I rode USDJPY down from 119.21 to 119.11, partially thanks to you making me reference my charts again for my previous post! Luckily I got out, as it seems to have recovered a bit... overall trend might still be down, but I had to head into work and couldn't monitor it anymore and didn't have time to figure out appropriate stops...

Your 5 pips will be in the mail to you tomorrow.

lol...my brain checked out when you started talking about the different MAs. After I stopped doing the vanessafx thing, I've just been playing around with different indicators in MT4 to find what fits me instead of following all these other technical systems.

Im pretty settled now on stochastics and the 200SMA along with pivots, s/r and basic price action(using candles). I also use GMMA sometimes.

I've been mainly using a 15 minute chart and sometimes 30 or 1hr for confirmation...made 16 pips yesterday on AUD/USD and 4 pips today on EUR/USD.

Its just demo, of course, because Im still learning what the indicators are telling me but Im having more success with my own made up "system" than I ever did following all the other technical systems...which proves the point about the "system fitting your personality" I guess.

Anyway, thanks for sharing your setup

One question, though, when you say "rounded top" are you using a line chart or is that a candle or OHLC pattern that Im not familiar with?

 

[~Shard~]

Anyway, thanks for sharing your setup

One question, though, when you say "rounded top" are you using a line chart or is that a candle or OHLC pattern that Im not familiar with?

No problem. I have other indicators which I look at as well, like RSI for instance, but in this case those were the ones I was going off.

As for a rounded top, I am referring to the MACD, not the bars/candles of the stock/currency pair itself.

 

[nhallmark]

No problem. I have other indicators which I look at as well, like RSI for instance, but in this case those were the ones I was going off.

As for a rounded top, I am referring to the MACD, not the bars/candles of the stock/currency pair itself.

Oh, ok...I think I know what your talking about now...its like the MACD has formed a rounded top literally and according to that it *should* come back down and possibly cross, right? (or come down enough to grab a few pips before it starts back up)

 

[nhallmark]

no trade on NZD CPI...I didn't think it deviated enough, but I guess I was wrong.

 

[Music_Producer]

Phew..no re-quotes this time.. 30 pips on nzd trade

 

[OceanView]

Phew..no re-quotes this time.. 30 pips on nzd trade

Awesome!

Were you trading in small lots or large?

 

[Music_Producer]

Awesome!

Were you trading in small lots or large?

This was a large lot.. a million units.. so yeah, made a decent profit in a *long* time!

 

[astro1]

ok so this is my 1st day with a demo account with Oanda. After days of reading I figured it was playtime. Needless to say I got my a$$ kicked. Thank God for demo accounts.
I tried to use Bollinger,MACD etc. to predict trends and in about a dozen trades am down 50 pips $50. (trading 10,000 units at 20:1) So much for the 5 second window and trying to be fast enough to get in on the up/downswing. Either I was too slow, or my stop kicked me out.
Lesson learned and I am indebted to the guy that invented demo accounts. Back to the books for further study.
This was during the day when the swings on the board were wild, I tried EUR/GBR, GBR/USD, USD/JPY just to get a feel.

On the bright side, in the evening I pulled the window back to the 30 min level, checked the overall trend and on 4 trades made 25 pips mainly on GPB/USD and also USD/JPY.
Just wanted you guys to know that even though I lost today, your posts do help and inspire.

Richard

 

[~Shard~]

Thanks for the update. Keep a positive attitude and remain vigilant. Learn from your mistakes as well - to use a couple favorite phrases of mine:

"If something is worth doing, it's worth doing wrong initially."
"Nothing is a waste of time if you use the experience wisely."

Also, stay focused. There is a wealth of information, strategies, etc. in this thread and you will not succeed if you try and take them all in at once. News trading, fades, spikes, MACD, SMAs, CPI, PPI, the list goes on. Plus there are so many currency pairs. I would recommend just focusing on a couple major ones and that's it - especially while you're learning.

Good luck to you and pass along any questions you might have.

 

[Music_Producer]

Well the minutes didn't change.. but the claimant count came out surprisingly low.. so I bought gbp/usd (on Oanda) After a 20 pip spread, still landed up netting about 11 pips.. so, fairly good trade.

On the tech side, how long do you guys think this gbp rally will last? This is the first time since 13-15 years, that it has cracked the 2.000 level.

 

[~Shard~]

I don't know about the GBPUSD, but I have a feeling it's going to pull back and take a breather before it continues its climb, just since it's climbed so much so fast in recent times. I think the overall trend is up though, unless bad things start happening with the UK economy - because the US economy is sure in for some bumpy roads ahead!

On another note I decided to short the entire NASDAQ. Let's see how that plays out over the next week or so....

 

[Music_Producer]

I don't know about the GBPUSD, but I have a feeling it's going to pull back and take a breather before it continues its climb, just since it's climbed so much so fast in recent times. I think the overall trend is up though, unless bad things start happening with the UK economy - because the US economy is sure in for some bumpy roads ahead!

On another note I decided to short the entire NASDAQ. Let's see how that plays out over the next week or so....

Man, I wish I had the guts to keep a trade hold on like that for so long.. I don't think I would get enough sleep.. probably keep checking the trade just as frequently as I come to MR to waste time Then again, you are probably so sure of what you're doing when it comes to long term trades.

When you short the nasdaq.. you're shorting the QQQ right?

Nathan, did you figure out about the currency futures thing? I signed up for demos with a couple of sites.. but their platforms are confusing. I can't even find the euro/pound futures! Sometimes I do, but then the platform doesn't give me any further information. It also seems like there is no way to quickly execute a buy/sell signal.. it's more like placing a proper trade (like you would to a broker)

So how would you trade the news with futures? Maybe I haven't come across the right service provider yet, I'll keep looking.. if you find something though, let us know.

 

[~Shard~]

Man, I wish I had the guts to keep a trade hold on like that for so long.. I don't think I would get enough sleep.. probably keep checking the trade just as frequently as I come to MR to waste time Then again, you are probably so sure of what you're doing when it comes to long term trades.

When you short the nasdaq.. you're shorting the QQQ right?

Yeah, it can be hard on the nerves sometimes, but it all comes down to the type of trade you're doing. With news trading, yeah, you want to get in an out quickly - especially with how fast the currency market has the potential to move. I would argue the stock market is less volatile in this respect, in general. That being said, if I was thinking that today and today only the Nasdaq was going to tank (due to a ton of bad news, RIM's network going down, etc. ) then I would look at it as a short term trade as well and wouldn't hold it for that long. In this specific case however, quite a few technicals are pointing towards a correction, over time, of the major US indices. So, even if I haven't entered at the high (which is most likely the case!) I'll take a couple days of loss of need be in order to realize the eventual gains. As I said, I see this happening over the next few weeks - no quick movements as with currencies.

It's the same with many of the stocks I own. Look at Canadian my bank stocks - BMO, BNS, LB, TD - sure, they see their ups and downs, but looks at their charts over the past 5 years - can't argue with that - and as a result, some of those stocks I've been holding for years! Sure, I enter and exit to lock in profit at different times, but I am still long term holding them. Plus, they have excellent yields and pay out very nice quarterly dividends. Plus, bank stocks never go down.

So anyway, yeah, it all depends what your strategy is. If I'm riding a short term wave, some bad news, or economic reports in the forex world, I'll only be in a trade for a short period of time. If I am bullish on something long term though, such as Gold, Oil, Natural Gas, whatever, then I have no problems holding a longer position.

Oh, and I'm actually trading the composite NDAQ100 through CMC. You can find it in the US - CFD - Indices basket.

 

[nhallmark]

Nathan, did you figure out about the currency futures thing? I signed up for demos with a couple of sites.. but their platforms are confusing. I can't even find the euro/pound futures! Sometimes I do, but then the platform doesn't give me any further information. It also seems like there is no way to quickly execute a buy/sell signal.. it's more like placing a proper trade (like you would to a broker)

So how would you trade the news with futures? Maybe I haven't come across the right service provider yet, I'll keep looking.. if you find something though, let us know.

Yeah, I got the demo of that RealTick software from Terra Nova Its almost impossible to figure out and then once you do it feels more like spreadsheet trading than an actual platform.

I finally figured it out for spot forex and I watched NZD CPI with it yesterday and the price stayed at 7444 the whole time when it was going crazy on CMC.

Im not sure if its a platform issue though because GBP/USD was moving around like normal.

Im at the point right now where I've figured out how to do 1 click execution but, for example, if you want to buy 100,000(1 lot) the "commision" is $74,000.

I dont know whats up with that, Im sure Im doing something wrong, but I will let you guys know if I figure it out.

I signed up for a demo with hotspotfx to see about their spreads and theyre actually pretty good...0-1 on EUR/USD but I haven't watched it during news yet.

I emailed hotspot about news trading and they responded....

"Thank you for expressing interest in the Hotspot FXr dealing system.
We do not have a trading desk. Our partner banks provide the excellent price spreads and liquidity on our trading platform.
Therefore, we have no "policy" on news trading. You can trade to your heart's desire, as much as your account margin allows "

The catch is this...in their user agreement, it says that it is possible to get filled at off market rates and a trade will not be cancelled soley because of that.

So, Ive emailed him back and asked if they have some type of limit order that would be like a "fill or kill" within 5-10 pips.

I guess we'll see what he says. Oh yeah, they dont make the spread, they charge $3 per side per $100,000 so its roughly 1/2 pip commision.

As far as futures, I have no idea...I guess Im going to check babypips or one of those sites to figure it all out and then Ill try to get it set up on that terra nova platform before the end of the week.

I'll let you guys know.

One more thing, Terra Nova lets you trade USD/ISK ...that's Iceland Kronas

However, Im still confused because I cant figure out if the spread is 10, 100, or 1000.

Either way, I also found this...

http://service-center.everbank.com/documents/wm_Guide.asp

Their homepage is www.everbank.com

They let you have a US FDIC insured savings account denominated in Iceland Kronas so you can make that damn interest

It says somewhere on their site that the rate is like 12.55% right now

Anyway, I thought I would let you guys know about that.

 

[OceanView]

Thanks for the info Nathan. Hope that you can work out the details and make some successful trades. I have been busy with a new MBP that I purchased.
My first Intel Mac.
Trying to install BootCamp and XP Pro on it now so that I can trade 4X on it.

 

[Music_Producer]

One more thing, Terra Nova lets you trade USD/ISK ...that's Iceland Kronas

That realtick platform is more like realpain! I wish we could trade ISK/JPY

Yeah, that interest is killer.. but they convert the USD into ISK.. so if the icelandic economy crashes.. those interest rate gains will be nothing compared to the actual loss. It's worth checking out the usd/isk ratio over the last few years though, to get an idea of how much of a range we can expect to encounter.

 

[astro1]

Question for someone. GPB/USD on that one I expected a gradual rise so I went long hoping to take a profit at the end of the day. At 19:55 this one dropped from 2.0092 to 2.0069 within 10 mins and another 12 pips within minutes after that. My 11 pip stop got blown away rather fast needless to say. The question is what should I have set the stops (if any) when doing a 4-6 hour trade and expecting a rise of about 30-35 pips during that time? I entered at 2.067 and was trying for 2.100 for the night.

Richard

 

[~Shard~]

Question for someone. GPB/USD on that one I expected a gradual rise so I went long hoping to take a profit at the end of the day. At 19:55 this one dropped from 2.0092 to 2.0069 within 10 mins and another 12 pips within minutes after that. My 11 pip stop got blown away rather fast needless to say. The question is what should I have set the stops (if any) when doing a 4-6 hour trade and expecting a rise of about 30-35 pips during that time? I entered at 2.067 and was trying for 2.100 for the night.

Views of different charts over different time periods will give you different pictures. If you were looking at a trade over a 4-6 hour time period, then you should see on your chart that there was the potential (which was realized) for a MACD crossover of the 200 and 89 MAs which would, from a technical perspective, form a support level @ 2.0073. I would have, as a result, set a stop at around 2.0065, just to allow for a bit of leeway. But after a clear signal move below this point, I would take a close look at the shorter term MAs (8 and 21) and see what they're doing. In this case, the were trending down as well, so you should know that the trade is definitely going against you. A stop around 2.0065 would have cut your losses in this case, but of course hindsight is 20/20. Also, the MACD was forming a round top (short signal) at the precise level which you bought, so if I would have received this indicator I actually would have shorted if anything (although I doubt I would have taken the trade in reality.)

So again, it comes down to timeframes. In this case, the short-term trend was down - that being said, I believe the overall longer term trend is still up. So, you have to ask yourself what your trading horizon is. If is is shorter term, look at the short term signals - in this case, they are short. If it is longer term, look at the longer term signals (which are long) and bearing this in mind, place your stops accordingly. For instance, if you were looking at this as a longer term trade, you would have it in your head that you would be holding it for a longer period of time, so a stop loss of 20-40 pips is probably inappropriate, since it could hit in the short term.

Anyway, I think you get the idea. let me know if you have any other questions.

 

[astro1]

(which was realized) for a MACD crossover of the 200 and 89 MAs which would, from a technical perspective, form a support level @ 2.0073. I would have, as a result, set a stop at around 2.0065, just to allow for a bit of leeway. But after a clear signal move below this point, I would take a close look at the shorter term MAs (8 and 21)

Thanks Shard. Now to get out the dictionary 200MA, 89 MA, I went back, can't see that so I guess it is back to the MACD lesson to figure that out.

 

[~Shard~]

Thanks Shard. Now to get out the dictionary 200MA, 89 MA, I went back, can't see that so I guess it is back to the MACD lesson to figure that out.

MAs are Moving Averages. The 2 most common types are SMAs (Simple Moving Averages) and EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages). The number refers to the days involved, i.e. the length of the trend. 200-day Moving Averages (i.e. the 200 MA) indicate longer trends whereas 8 or 21 day moving averages are indicative of shorter term direction. Crossovers are key as well, and are really fairly intuitive - if longer term trends cross over shorter term trends, or vice versa, this can be a sign of short term or long term (depending on the MAs) direction. Hope this helps a bit.

Also, made 4 pips on the EURUSD from the US unemployment #s. I squeezed every pip I could out of that one!

 

[OceanView]

MAs are Moving Averages. The 2 most common types are SMAs (Simple Moving Averages) and EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages). The number refers to the days involved, i.e. the length of the trend. 200-day Moving Averages (i.e. the 200 MA) indicate longer trends whereas 8 or 21 day moving averages are indicative of shorter term direction. Crossovers are key as well, and are really fairly intuitive - if longer term trends cross over shorter term trends, or vice versa, this can be a sign of short term or long term (depending on the MAs) direction. Hope this helps a bit.

Also, made 4 pips on the EURUSD from the US unemployment #s. I squeezed every pip I could out of that one!

I tried technical analysis before, just spend too much time trying to analyze everything. I really like trading the news strategy much better as it is simple and fast. I don't have to stare at the screen all day.
If you are good and proficient at technical analysis, good for you.
Hope you make more pips doing that then trading the news.

 

[~Shard~]

I tried technical analysis before, just spend too much time trying to analyze everything. I really like trading the news strategy much better as it is simple and fast. I don't have to stare at the screen all day.
If you are good and proficient at technical analysis, good for you.
Hope you make more pips doing that then trading the news.

Yeah, I guess when you''ve been doing it as long as I have on the stock markets, it comes pretty natural. I can go home from work, fire up 10 different stocks, pull up saved templates I have of certain technical indicators/methods I use and recognize & analyze potential trades in probably 10 minutes flat - no time at all. So no, it is definitely not staring at the screen all day! My goal is to eventually be able to read charts like the Matrix, where all those complex characters actually make sense to certain people!

Seriously, I've been trying to port this over to forex with some success so far. Slow but sure. But I agree, one of the reasons I have gotten into forex is due to the news trading. As you say, nice, simple and quick. You know when a report is coming out and what it's supposed to be, and it's never "off hours" so you can actually trade the report if you're around. And if your broker doesn't screw you over.

In the end, you need a good mix in my opinion of technicals and fundamentals - you can't have one without the other, or else you might as well be trading with one arm behind your back. That being said, certain methods work better for different people in different scenarios, so if news trading is your forte and what you like, then stick to it - just don't make a single trade if it isn't based on a news report. Same goes vice versa.