Damn, should have held on to my gbp trade after the ppi report.. it went up to 1.9940! I assumed, it would hit 1.990 and then people would start selling it, since it's a major level. No stopping these Brits now 😱 .. will GBP be 2.000 soon?
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Anyone here into FOREX?
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~Shard~
macrumors P6
Yeah, perhaps that's it. Also, I have been dabbling with some technical trades at times as well - perhaps I'm not flagged as solely an "evil news trader".. 🙄 😉
And yes, there seems to be overall USD weakness in the markets - my Gold positions have been doing excellent as well. Next stop, 2.000 on the pound!
I didn't trade US retail sales but I got 5 pips on TIC.
I traded EUR/USD thinking I would catch CMC off guard and it seems like it worked because my response time was around 800ms when I clicked but the execution was faster than Ive got from them in quite awhle.
Im thinking I might start watching USD/JPY for US reports and if it gives consistent moves I'll switch.
The point is to have the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY windows open so CMC doesn't know which one I am going to click so hopefully, I can switch around and trade a different pair each time and catch them off guard.
Of course, I could be making all this up 😛
I traded EUR/USD thinking I would catch CMC off guard and it seems like it worked because my response time was around 800ms when I clicked but the execution was faster than Ive got from them in quite awhle.
Im thinking I might start watching USD/JPY for US reports and if it gives consistent moves I'll switch.
The point is to have the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY windows open so CMC doesn't know which one I am going to click so hopefully, I can switch around and trade a different pair each time and catch them off guard.
Of course, I could be making all this up 😛
Nah, they would lose more money that way from paying the guy 😛
They supposedly "flag" your account and start routing your orders a different way and its all automated. I read about some guy that wrote some code for MT4 where they cant manipulate the software...I wish I could find this guy and make him write it for CMC 😛
Oh I see.
I will try that next time.
By the way, I was thinking about applying trade the news strategy on the stock market. It's apparent that when good news about the US is announced, the major indicies will go up and if the news is bad, the markets move down.
There has to be a way to capitalize on that as we do for the currency market.
Maybe we can use options to buy large lots and sell at the end of the day to capture the difference in the movement.
What do you guys think?
Shard, I know your the expert in the stock market here, please give us your 2 cents.
Yeah, that will work for some cases, OceanView, but make sure you know what is going to happen before you trade...for example, a few weeks ago with the FOMC minutes, the fed removed their statement about inflation so everyone thought this could be a sign of a rate cut.
Obviously, GBP/USD went up, meaning everyone was selling dollars. However, the DOW went up...on bad news for the dollar.
This happened because everyone in equities was worried about the subprime mortgage "crisis" and so, when the fed left that comment out of the statement, it was interpreted that the fed will take care of the problem if it spreads by cutting rates...which "reassured" investors, so stocks rallied.
One more example of how we're not trading the news, we're trading traders' interpretations of the news.
You might already know all this, Im just saying it just in case.
I hear stocks are really hard to trade though with all the rules and whatnot...maybe Shard can enlighten us 🙂
Obviously, GBP/USD went up, meaning everyone was selling dollars. However, the DOW went up...on bad news for the dollar.
This happened because everyone in equities was worried about the subprime mortgage "crisis" and so, when the fed left that comment out of the statement, it was interpreted that the fed will take care of the problem if it spreads by cutting rates...which "reassured" investors, so stocks rallied.
One more example of how we're not trading the news, we're trading traders' interpretations of the news.
You might already know all this, Im just saying it just in case.
I hear stocks are really hard to trade though with all the rules and whatnot...maybe Shard can enlighten us 🙂
~Shard~
macrumors P6
Yeah, the stock market is a bit trickier in this respect. It's one of the reasons I like forex actually - because you know when the news is coming out, what it's supposed to be and can actually trade it real-time. With the stock market, significant scheduled news is always released BMO or AMC, so unless you can do pre-market or after hours trading, you're screwed since you can't react instantly. Then there is the "unscheduled" news - i.e. surprises. You either don't see these coming, so unless you're sitting in front of your terminal doing day trading, you can't capitalize, or the news is so significant that trading on the stock will be halted. 🙄
And specific to your comment OceanView, arbitrage is very tricky when it comes to the stock market. I don't play that game...
Also, with forex, you know a currency will never absolutely tank against another one - you're always dealing with pairs. Stocks? Well, a stock can go to zero. Sure, it's improbable in many cases, but still it can happen. Look at what all happened during the recent market crashes in 2000 and 1987...
All that being said, when it comes to the indices themselves, yes, you could try trading these - I do in fact myself. However you have to be very careful on the news and how you trade. Sometimes good economic news can be bad for the currency but good for the markets, or vice versa. Look at inflation for an example - lower inflation can hammer a currency yet bolster the markets in certain economic conditions.
So yes, it's a bit trickier, but can be done if you're on top of things. As well as trading indices, I personally go a step further and trade commodities as well. Gold for instance has an inverse relationship to the USD. It all dates back to the War and resulted in Gold being a hedge against the USD. Right now, Gold is testing key resistance around 692.50. If it stays above this point for more than a day, then I will buy - the next technical target is 755/oz and I would see that happening in the next few months. Then, you can sit back and ride the seasonality wave. Due to several factors I won't go into detail regarding right now, Gold is seasonally strong from around July to the end of September. There will be ups and downs but the trend is there. However if Gold pulls back from 692, I'll wait until it hits support and then buy. Either way, Gold is, well, gold to invest in right now... 😛 😉 😀
Anyway, Oil is big as well. When oil is up, other US markets suffer. We are exiting the period of seasonal strength for US energy stocks in a month, so along with the technicals indicating that the DJIA100, S&P500 and NAQ100 are overbought right now (I get this from RSI and stochastics) I see a market correction in the near future. Throw in some hurricanes this summer which will bolster oil and natural gas (which I hold both of as well) and you can make all sorts of money. Oil and gas go up (buy), US markets go down (sell), USD goes down (sell), Gold goes up (buy) - it's cool seeing the big picture, all the inter-relationships and ripple effects. 😎
Oh, and as a supplement to the above for anyone who's curious, one of the reasons Gold (and other metals/commodities) goes up when the USD goes down is due to the fact that weakness in the USD has a positive impact on commodities priced in USD (e.g. gold, silver, copper, zinc, crude oil, fertilizer). Make sense?
Anyway, I could go on, but those are just some thoughts from the "non-forex world" since you asked. 😎
And specific to your comment OceanView, arbitrage is very tricky when it comes to the stock market. I don't play that game...
Also, with forex, you know a currency will never absolutely tank against another one - you're always dealing with pairs. Stocks? Well, a stock can go to zero. Sure, it's improbable in many cases, but still it can happen. Look at what all happened during the recent market crashes in 2000 and 1987...
All that being said, when it comes to the indices themselves, yes, you could try trading these - I do in fact myself. However you have to be very careful on the news and how you trade. Sometimes good economic news can be bad for the currency but good for the markets, or vice versa. Look at inflation for an example - lower inflation can hammer a currency yet bolster the markets in certain economic conditions.
So yes, it's a bit trickier, but can be done if you're on top of things. As well as trading indices, I personally go a step further and trade commodities as well. Gold for instance has an inverse relationship to the USD. It all dates back to the War and resulted in Gold being a hedge against the USD. Right now, Gold is testing key resistance around 692.50. If it stays above this point for more than a day, then I will buy - the next technical target is 755/oz and I would see that happening in the next few months. Then, you can sit back and ride the seasonality wave. Due to several factors I won't go into detail regarding right now, Gold is seasonally strong from around July to the end of September. There will be ups and downs but the trend is there. However if Gold pulls back from 692, I'll wait until it hits support and then buy. Either way, Gold is, well, gold to invest in right now... 😛 😉 😀
Anyway, Oil is big as well. When oil is up, other US markets suffer. We are exiting the period of seasonal strength for US energy stocks in a month, so along with the technicals indicating that the DJIA100, S&P500 and NAQ100 are overbought right now (I get this from RSI and stochastics) I see a market correction in the near future. Throw in some hurricanes this summer which will bolster oil and natural gas (which I hold both of as well) and you can make all sorts of money. Oil and gas go up (buy), US markets go down (sell), USD goes down (sell), Gold goes up (buy) - it's cool seeing the big picture, all the inter-relationships and ripple effects. 😎
Oh, and as a supplement to the above for anyone who's curious, one of the reasons Gold (and other metals/commodities) goes up when the USD goes down is due to the fact that weakness in the USD has a positive impact on commodities priced in USD (e.g. gold, silver, copper, zinc, crude oil, fertilizer). Make sense?
Anyway, I could go on, but those are just some thoughts from the "non-forex world" since you asked. 😎
Hey guys...I sent an email to that Terra Nova broker that Music_Producer was talking about.
They replied and said I they don't have any policies on trading the news and they don't have a clue what Im talking about...so they told me to call and explain it.
So, I just got off the phone with a lady and she said there is no problem trading the news. I explained it and she was like "yeah..and so CPI is good, you sell GBP/USD. what's the problem with that?" 😱 😱
OMFG 😱 Wow..a broker that was halfway honest and understood what we are doing here.
However, here's the catch...they clear all forex trades through hotspot and Ive heard that hotspot's spreads widen 20-60 pips during news.
I told her about this and she said "you may be right. Im not sure. Ill send you a demo and you can check it for yourself"
So, I should have the demo from them soon and if hotspot's spreads aren't that bad, we might have found our solution 😀
Edit: I should add that I heard the rumors about hotspot's spreads from the same place I heard that you cant trade the news on currenex because of the 80 pip spreads. It was some forum, cant remember but Music_Producer seems to be doing fine on the currenex demo...guess we'll see.
They replied and said I they don't have any policies on trading the news and they don't have a clue what Im talking about...so they told me to call and explain it.
So, I just got off the phone with a lady and she said there is no problem trading the news. I explained it and she was like "yeah..and so CPI is good, you sell GBP/USD. what's the problem with that?" 😱 😱
OMFG 😱 Wow..a broker that was halfway honest and understood what we are doing here.
However, here's the catch...they clear all forex trades through hotspot and Ive heard that hotspot's spreads widen 20-60 pips during news.
I told her about this and she said "you may be right. Im not sure. Ill send you a demo and you can check it for yourself"
So, I should have the demo from them soon and if hotspot's spreads aren't that bad, we might have found our solution 😀
Edit: I should add that I heard the rumors about hotspot's spreads from the same place I heard that you cant trade the news on currenex because of the 80 pip spreads. It was some forum, cant remember but Music_Producer seems to be doing fine on the currenex demo...guess we'll see.
Thanks Shard for that detailed explaination.
Lots of good info there and your basic analysis of the gold, oil, stock markets are great basics for common sense investing.
Hope to utilize it and invest in them soon.
Nathan, I hope the Terra Nova broker's demo does work out.
We really have to find a solution platform for trading the news.
Please keep us updated.
Now back to work I go.... :-(
Lots of good info there and your basic analysis of the gold, oil, stock markets are great basics for common sense investing.
Hope to utilize it and invest in them soon.
Nathan, I hope the Terra Nova broker's demo does work out.
We really have to find a solution platform for trading the news.
Please keep us updated.
Now back to work I go.... :-(
Hey! I think they've put us together.. lol. Got a re-quote as well.. this would have been one hell of a trade - 40-50 EASY pips. 😡 😡 😡 CMC should stand for c*nt motherf*kers c*nts.. sorry, just had to vent.
Well I made 1 pip on ZEW because CMC wouldn't let me out again. Let me tell you how happy I am 🙄
What size are you trading with? I narrowed my down to 100,000 units.. and still get re-quotes. So I'm going to try with 50,000 (.. yeah.. not at all worth it staying up for trading with that small lots.. but just to see if it gives me a re-quote or lets it go through)
yeah, I was thinking it might be the lot sizes because of that requote on NZD retail sales last week...I was trading $600K on that, but on UK CPI today I was trading $200K and I still got a requote.
...then, on ZEW I was trading $300K and I got through fine.
I looked at my order for UK CPI(or my attempted order) and I clicked at 1.9838 and the chart was gapping up at that time...I would say, "oh how can they fill me in the gap" to be fair but I've heard of them manipulating the price more than once.
I could have already trippled my account this month and they would let me trade 😡
Im sure Ill find a solution soon though.
Edit: I just looked at MT4...no gap, so CMC could have filled me 🙄
...then, on ZEW I was trading $300K and I got through fine.
I looked at my order for UK CPI(or my attempted order) and I clicked at 1.9838 and the chart was gapping up at that time...I would say, "oh how can they fill me in the gap" to be fair but I've heard of them manipulating the price more than once.
I could have already trippled my account this month and they would let me trade 😡
Im sure Ill find a solution soon though.
Edit: I just looked at MT4...no gap, so CMC could have filled me 🙄
So we have a great strategy that works.. but no way to actually execute it 🙄 Sooner or later, brokers will just prevent us from trading successfully. I'm gonna try the US CPI report with Oanda and see how that goes. I'll accept the spread.. if the deviation is big enough, hopefully I can make some profit. I just don't want to see another re-quote.
More like 2.040 right now 😱 So much for all those technical traders who were going to carry out massive shorts at 2.000.. I feel bad for them! Never get in front of a running train..
Let's see how the US CPI comes out. They have housing starts as well.. ahh, everything seems to be weak nowadays. I might trade EUR/USD on this one.. but then again.. GBP's gone up so high.. that if the report comes out USD +ve.. GBP should drop 80 pips or so.
~Shard~
macrumors P6
Damn, would have been a good trade but I was a little slow this morning and didn't want to pull the trigger. I was about to buy GBPUSD but for me at least, the quote on CMC shot up from 2.0020 to 2.0040 instantly, and I didn't want to enter on fear that I'd be getting in on the high and miss the spike - I didn't realize there would be some further upside. Ah well, I'm sure you guys did well (barring CMC playing games with you! 😱 ) and I'll get in on the next one.
I did short the USDJPY last night though based on my technicals and make 27 pips, so I'm quite happy about that trade. 😎
Anywho, next report is in about half an hour I believe...
I did short the USDJPY last night though based on my technicals and make 27 pips, so I'm quite happy about that trade. 😎
Anywho, next report is in about half an hour I believe...
Didn't trade this one.. deviation wasn't big enough to justify the 20 pip spread. How did you do nathan? Were you smacked with a re-quote again? (hope not!)
Btw, just received an email from PFG.. regarding their cnx platform. Responding to my trading inquiry - "You can trade whatever method you like.. we do not keep a dealing book, and have no interest in how you trade other than making commission from volume/month"
Nice huh 😀 Now if they actually live up to it.. let's see..
Btw, just received an email from PFG.. regarding their cnx platform. Responding to my trading inquiry - "You can trade whatever method you like.. we do not keep a dealing book, and have no interest in how you trade other than making commission from volume/month"
Nice huh 😀 Now if they actually live up to it.. let's see..
Yeah, it's scary how the pound is so bullish. Wow, it just broke past 2.0060. Where's it going?!!
~Shard~
macrumors P6
Let me know what you find with PFG Music_Producer if you proceed with them...
Not enough movement again on the US data a minute ago - didn't trade...
Man, where is the pound going?!? The bulls are out in full force yet you'd think there's got to be a bit of a correction and a breather soon at this pace... That being said, I see bad things ahead in the US economy's future, so long term who knows...
Not enough movement again on the US data a minute ago - didn't trade...
Man, where is the pound going?!? The bulls are out in full force yet you'd think there's got to be a bit of a correction and a breather soon at this pace... That being said, I see bad things ahead in the US economy's future, so long term who knows...
I actually slept in 😛 I think Im going to get a laptop so I can just lay in bed and trade and then fall back asleep 😉
Man, I hope that's true about PFG...didnt you say their minimum was $50K ?
Good job on the tech. trade, Shard! 😉
Err...if you dont mind, what time frame did you have and what indicators were you using?
Man, I hope that's true about PFG...didnt you say their minimum was $50K ?
Good job on the tech. trade, Shard! 😉
Err...if you dont mind, what time frame did you have and what indicators were you using?
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