Shard, Looks as if the AUD/NZD is a strong buy a the moment. I just watched the head forex analyst on CNBCplus from UBS say it should hit up to 1.14/1.15 I'm trying to get my confidence back after my last TA trade

What would your take on this be?
www.ubs.com/1/e/ubs_ch/wealth_mgmt_ch/research/research_update.html#ForexNews_D
My general rule of thumb is that if I read about something in the news, it's too late to trade.

Currency strategies only hit the "common folk" after all the insiders have established their positions and then disseminate this information throughout the media to generate hype. The speculators will then jump all over the news, the insiders will get out with their profits and leave everyone else high and dry. This is why trading on speculation is one of my cardinal no-nos of trading - I never do it.
So, in this specific case, if they are saying AUDNZD is a strong buy right now, I'd take that with a grain of salt. Also, this has no bearing whatsoever on the techical aspect of the pair, so regardless of the news, I would only enter a technical trade on the pair if several of my indicators lined up and were consistent. In other words, if my strategy is to enter a technical trade on a pair, then news such as this is irrelevant, as I am trading the techicals not the news/hype.
I do not watch the AUDNZD pair at all, so I can't comment on its current levels. Watching too many pairs makes me lose focus. I prefer to watch 6-7 pairs max and dedicate my attention to just them so I can be in better touch and have a better feel and understanding of how the pairs behave and such. Normally I watch EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDJPY, USDCHF and USDJPY. I follow AUDUSD and NZDUSD from time to time but not on a regaular basis.
I will be watching the NZD report this afternoon though. It's a really interesting situation - fundamentally, NZ has no need to increase rates, yet the expectation is that they will and furthermore this has already been priced into the currency. Also, there is the artificial inflation to consider, what with the kiwi being a carry currency. If the BoNZ does indeed hike rates, I don't see the pair going up (these levels are currently technically unsustainable) yet there that's damn carry influence again.

The hike appears to be priced in tough, so if they chose to leave rates the same, look out below!
Not sure if I've been much help, but these are just some of my thoughts on the matter... If you have any other questions just ask.
