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Anyone here into FOREX?

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Britguy said:
I agree with your point on the Yen pairs - buy dips. Would you consider the same with the US stock market. Sell Dow around the 13700 mark for a couple of hundred points profit?

NZ - retail figs tonight. I am looking forward to this trade as its a pre-cursor to the interest rate story in late July. So much worse figs NZD/USD will be hammered, whereas much better figs may make a July hike likely.
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I am not absolutely sure of the stock market at all.. since I don't trade that.. but yes, the same principle should apply. The Dow is also susceptible to earnings report and all that, so be careful. At least with the JPY pairs, you know that there is a basic trend - upwards - due to the carry trade.. and hence it's a lot more comfortable to buy on dips.

But with any massive sell-off.. a correction is bound to happen.. so yeah, you could do that with the Dow as well. I just don't trust stocks lol
 
Requoted for CMC - Quelle surprise, for NZ retail sales. I am not on manual execution, but i believe an account exec has gone over my profitable trades and reduced the amount i can trade on each instrument now. So where once i could get $70 a point, now it is $10.

Which autoclick service do you use, MP? I spoke to capforex, they said the leverage is 50:1. But i suppose its better to get filled on low leverage than not at all.
 
Hey all,

I blew my account up this week and have been in denial ever since. I bet against the EUR/USD on last fridays NFP. I saw 10% equity profit, then it retraced past my entry. I told myself, 'It's going to go down again.'
So still holding onto my position, I almost got out at break even on Tuesday, then the EUR made the biggest jump in years in one day and my over-leveraged position destroyed my account at -150pips.

Very expensive lesson. And my confidence is rocked.

I'm going to get out of my trading room and subscribe to TTN. I need to learn exactly why the market does what it does on raw data. Not by just following someone else. It's unconcious trading what I'm currently doing.

Best of luck to you all, I'll be trading on demo for a while, so if I have a big win, it's not real :rolleyes:
 
Britguy, I don't use auto click services.. I don't trust any third party applications that can control my trading - I am actually faster trading myself than depending on software. I guess I have just traded so much, that I am used to it.

Stu.. sorry to hear about that loss, I've blown up my account as well (when I first started a few years ago)

First lesson:

NEVER take any advice from anyone on a forum, or subscribe to any signal software. You have to ask YOURSELF, why you think a currency pair is going to go up or down.

The NFP didn't deviate much.. so EUR/USD had no business going down.. especially when you take into account all the bad news hogging the US economy (subprime defaults especially)

Just when you think a currency pair can't go any higher.. any bank can step in.. any news can make the situation worse.. and it will shoot up before you can blink. ALWAYS employ a stop loss, if you're going to be trading based on technicals, or any fundamental strategy.

I shorted USD/CAD before the US and Canadian trade balance.. because I assumed that the US trade balance wouldn't be great ... and the canadian would probably come out better. Also aiding this decision was the fact that USD/CAD had gone up by more than 120-150 pips since the last few days.. so i thought it was ready for a drop.

It did drop .. I got out with a profit.. but eventually, it dropped by 80 more pips. Why? Couple of news - canadian inflation is still high.. and the price of oil shot up yesterday.. so CAD went up massively.

Everytime oil goes up - CAD goes up, USD goes down, gold goes up and JPY goes down.

I am beginning to see the broader picture of trading forex.. and it's much better than trading news.. when you trade on common sense, read the news regarding a currency pair, interest rates, etc.

Keep the Oanda news window open.. I think last night they had a report that stated 'Rumors of big banks selling the pound' and surely enough.. 15 minutes later the pound dropped 40-50 pips. Don't just trade blindly, or go on what some trader says their Harry Potter indicator predicts on where a currency will go.

I kept thinking to myself - how the bloody hell does George Soros have such successful trades? He's been short on the US$ since the beginning of 2007! Now that's a long term trade - and obviously he's enjoying his profits right now. He has had his losses too - everyone makes a loss, so don't let that deter you.
 
Take a look at gbp/usd.. almost 40 minutes to go before the US retail sales.. and it's at 2.0326. I was hoping for it to stay at 2.0295 or so.. I would have gone long.. because I have a feeling US retail sales are not going to be so great.

Anyway, if the US sales come out better than expected.. then I'll be buying gbp/usd after it falls (i will trade the news first as well) I'll be buying a very small lot since i am still testing out my non-news trades.

If the US sales come out weak.. then be careful. The gbp/usd will go up.. but there might be a lot of resistance. It might tempt banks to go short to book profits.. and then buy it again later on during the day. Good luck!
 
Hey, I was right :p US retail sales came out worse than expected.. bagged 30 pips on this one.. nice trade.. can't believe GBP is still going up. It can reach 2.0400, but I predict a fall.. for some profit taking.. and then it might go back up.
 
MP,

How can you analyse buy/sell news releases before an autoclick software can?

No fills on us retail figs, will have to open up a cnx ac now.

Gone short GBp/USD at 203.6, with a tight stop.
 
Britguy said:
MP,

How can you analyse buy/sell news releases before an autoclick software can?

No fills on us retail figs, will have to open up a cnx ac now.

Gone short GBp/USD at 203.6, with a tight stop.
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I frankly don't know.. I just attribute it to my years in medical school and all the bloody exams.. lol, I just think really quick in these kind of situations. I did try an autoclick (SNW) software once, I didn't like it. I was faster, and one time the software made an error.. gave a trade in the opposite direction.. which completely made me think why the hell people pay for these services.

Pound just dropped from 2.0360 to 2.0335.. I really want it to go to 2.0950 or somewhere there.. I'll be buying when it drops below the 2.0300 mark.. because it's bound to go back up later during the day. Hurry up and short the pound you big banks! :D
 
Britguy said:
So what news service do you have which gives the news fast?
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I'm using Reuters right now, I was using Trade the news for the longest time.. reuters.. well it's maybe a second or two earlier. I am not sure how much faster bloomberg is.

Honestly, it's easier trading after the news report, as I am finding out. When the currency pair hits a high.. short it.. it eventually retraces a bit.. and vice versa (exceptions are jpy pairs of course)
 
I wouldnt be able to digest the news quick enough to trade like you, looks like a bout of profit-taking on JPY pairs. Be topping up next week.
 
Britguy said:
I wouldnt be able to digest the news quick enough to trade like you, looks like a bout of profit-taking on JPY pairs. Be topping up next week.
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You can, just practice on a demo account.. and I mean practice every report possible. Alternatively, like i mentioned before.. you could just trade post-spike. Yeah, i noticed the jpy pairs too.. if only we could work at these banks carrying out all these trades..
 
So, on a post-spike trade what do you do if it makes a new high/low? Do you look for a deviation in the past and compare the result against it. EG 0.5 deviation on Us retail moves the price 30pips, so therefore you fade when the +30pips has completed?
 
CMC re-quote on US data this morning. :rolleyes: Like I said, when I get more time I'm going to look into other options. For now, I'll stick it out I guess, although it's frustrating when I know I could be making more money than I am, by no fault of my own...
 
Shard,

what was the last news release that CMC filled you on?

I think mine was US retail figs last month.
 
Britguy said:
So, on a post-spike trade what do you do if it makes a new high/low? Do you look for a deviation in the past and compare the result against it. EG 0.5 deviation on Us retail moves the price 30pips, so therefore you fade when the +30pips has completed?
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I don't look at the deviations in the past.. I usually have an idea of how much a report tends to move currencies.. of course, anything to do with interest rates will move them 80-100 pips..

I look at how the pair has moved since the previous day.. and trade accordingly. It's a whole bunch of analyses really.

I just checked - the jpy pairs dropped because Iran wants payment from japan (for oil) in Yen, not USD.. so the yen strengthened. Typical news related move.
 
Britguy said:
Shard,

what was the last news release that CMC filled you on?

I think mine was US retail figs last month.
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Good question, tough to say since I haven't been actively trading this past month. I'll have to check my records and see. I think I might just phone them and see what excuses they come up with.... ;) :D
 
One of the best trades I've made in a while.. I actually held on to this for a good 20 minutes - all cpi numbers came out more than expected..and the move was nice and sweet.. bagged 50 pips. I think the pound could crack the 2.050 level.. Bernanke's probably sweating right now lol :D
 
Hi, Music Producer, Shard and everyone else.....

Hi, Music Producer and others...

Greetings from London!

Firstly, can I say thanks - I have been following this thread for the past few weeks - yes - I have read it all! :) It is fascinating to read. And I greatly appreciate the openness and generosity of comments....

>>One of the best trades I've made in a while.. I actually held on to this for a good 20 minutes - all cpi numbers came out more than expected..and the move was nice and sweet.. bagged 50 pips.

I am puzzled - the figures were lower than expected, yet the GPB went up? Was this because it was higher than expected (and therefore interest rates are still likely to go up?) Have I finally 'got it'?

Also, MP, you mention that you are no longer using tradethenews - instead you are using Reuters News - why s that? which reuters service are you using?

Also, there was mention once on something on .mac? What was that?

Well done re todays 50 pips! - Brilliant!

Thanks very much!
 
Britguy, i traded this one on mb trading.. i couldn't log into currenex for some reason.. maybe they don't want me anymore :confused: I traded *after* the intial spike on mb.. that's the best way to get in. There was a spike, and then gbp/usd retraced (not all the way, but quite a bit) I was going to exit after 10-12 pips.. but the pair just kept going up and up.. I was ready to look for any resistance at 2.0400 but it just shot up to 2.0406 and higher.

mikler.. the figures were higher than expected. The CPI y/y forecast was 2.3%.. and it came out at 2.4%. Also, core cpi was forecast at 1.9% and it came out at 2%.. so they both came out higher than expected. Hence, the pound went up.

Looks like it just broke the 2.0450 barrier.. this is crazy.. don't you brits have anything better to do than buy pounds on a mad scale? :p
 
>>don't you brits have anything better to do than buy pounds on a mad scale?
Anything to keep you guys out of bed!!! :)

>>I traded *after* the intial spike on mb.. that's the best way to get in.
Can you explain that a bit? Or are you referring to mb?

>>mikler.. the figures were higher than expected. The CPI y/y forecast was 2.3%.. and it came out at 2.4%. Also, core cpi was forecast at 1.9% and it came out at 2%.. so they both came out higher than expected. Hence, the pound went up.

Thanks for explaining.

Can you clarify which Reuters news service you are using?

Thanks

Mik
 
Was there a trade on any of the US data this morning? :confused: I was waiting, all ready to trade, but CMC didn't move hardly at all. Not sure if I'm paranoid now about their "practices" or if there was legitimately no trade. :eek: ;) Ah well, there will always be another....

P.S. Music_Producer, I sent you an e-mail, just fyi, not sure how often you check... ;) :)
 
Britguy said:
Anyone get filled on CAD CPI?
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Or the US CPI news for that matter? I'm slowly but surely making my way through babypips.com, and had a try with an Oanda game account, and of course traded in the wrong direction.:rolleyes: Maybe if I could use USD/GBP on Oanda, I would have done it correctly. Oh well!
 
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