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Anyone here into FOREX?

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Kev.. how did you trade in the opposite direction? The US CPI came out just a bit higher than expected.. so I saw the gbp/usd dip to about 2.0465 (took its time) I didn't wake up in time to trade the canadian cpi.. that looked like it could have been a good trade.

I traded the Bernanke speech next.. he's known to be a wuss and basically everytime he talks, the $ goes down. Anyway, as soon as i noticed that he stated that the US GDP will be worse than expected and that rates would be cut.. more likely in 2008.. I bought the gbp/usd .. and it started going up. I got out after netting 15 pips.. and this always happens. Every time I stay in a trade.. the price will move up slowly.. soon as I exit.. it will jump up lol.

So yeah.. it eventually went up 40-50 pips more.. let's see what the brit retail sales bring tonight.
 
Mp,

How much does your reuters/bloomberg service cost a month? How much quicker is it than the autoclick progs on the market on average?

Britguy
 
Britguy said:
Mp,

How much does your reuters/bloomberg service cost a month? How much quicker is it than the autoclick progs on the market on average?

Britguy
Click to expand...

Britguy, reuters is 750 (plus taxes, etc) .. bloomberg is way more expensive. I can't compare it to any autoclick programs because I don't use those, but it is definitely faster than Trade the news. However, it works out to the same execution speed as with TTN and a market maker like CMC.. because Currenex is faster as well.

Additionally, I am using limit orders.. so sometimes a trade doesn't get executed (if I'm slow by even a few milliseconds) Like today, I didn't get executed right away.. so I waited for the retrace, and hit 'sell' again.. bagged about 18 pips.

I have been noticing that it's much easier to trade the retracement, rather than try and get into the initial spike. Of course, if it's a report like an unexpected interest rate/hike then trade away.. don't look for any retracements, because there won't be any!
 
Mp,

But what your saying with reuteurs is that you have enough time to see the release, hit buy or sell based on those numbers, all before the spike?

What do you base your retracement entry on - 50% of spike, or a basing pattern.

$750 isnt bad if it gives u an edge.

I always thought you used mkt orders on cnx?
 
Shard and M_P...

You may have already answered this question in one of the pages way back when, but how did the two of you get started in to Forex? I honestly stumbled upon Forex maybe about a month ago or so (this thread), and it's unbelievable how much you need to know - how to read graphs, which broker to use (personal pref. obviously), news sources, knowing the historical limits of Dollars, Pounds, Euros, etc...

Did the both of you start off doing the short-term spike trading, or were you more of long-term traders and moved to short-term...?

Thanks guys. Attempting to break my brain in to learning this stuff, but currently just breaking my brain!
 
Britguy, I do use mkt orders on currenex.. but mostly on retracing.. so chance of slippage is nil.

Here's how I traded the UK GDP report today. Btw.. the time difference between the spike on currenex and the reuters report is very negligible, you have to be really quick to enter. Now if you used reuters with a retail bucketshop broker, you'll have ample time to get in before the spike.. but you'll obviously be met with a re-quote.

Anyway.. I didn't trade the spike today, I traded the retracing. I saw the gdp come out higher than expected.. as usual.. gbp/usd spiked up.. it went up to 2.0526 and then started dropping. I knew the numbers were good.. I usually wait for a fall of 10-15 pips before getting in. It started falling to 2.0513.. and then went to 2.0511.. and that's when I hit 'buy'.

Since this was a post-spike trade, my market order went through right away. It dipped further to 2.0507, but after a few minutes went back up.. eventually it went up to 2.0528 and I exited. So I netted 21 pips *after* the spike.

I was also ready to place a massive sell order if it hit 2.0550.. since it's a pretty important psychological barrier for the pound. If it did hit 2.0550, it would stay for a bit, come down to maybe 2.0540 (10 pip profit) maybe even lower.. hang around.. and then try to go back up.

So there are a lot of ways to trade than just the spike. Trading post spike, again, does not apply to interest rate reports, or currencies like nzd/usd (I've hardly ever seen any retracing on those) GBP/USD - I see retracing all the time.

Kev - I got into forex after reading about George Soros.. lol. The first time I got in, I was trading blindly and promptly lost my $3000 deposit. I made the mistake of opening a live account right away, instead of practicing on a demo. After playing on a demo for a few months, I finally started trading sensibly.

I prefer short term trades - long term - who knows what can happen. For instance, right now I know that good long term bets are - GBP/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, NZD/USD and AUD/USD. All these should go up.. but I don't have the patience nor the stomach to go through all the ups and downs.

Take the pound for example - UK economy is looking good, inflation is high, so they will raise interest rates, US economy is struggling, etc.. all this points to positive gbp/usd movement. Why? It's very likely that interest rates on the pound will be hiked, whereas the US$ rates will stay the same, or may be cut. If you were a bank with billions of $.. wouldn't you invest in pounds.. and get a nice fat interest on your deposit? That's what makes the pound go up.. it offers a nice interest rate (compared to the USD) Look at all the Yen pairs.. why is the yen so low? Because it offers a 0.5% interest rate..

Long term trading is great if you have the funds necessary to allow for any major drawdowns. It's very important to keep abreast of daily financial reports relating to the respective economies of whatever currency you may be trading.
 
Why is there retracing?

A general question....

Please could someone explain to a newbie why there is retracing? What is the logic behind it?

Thanks very much to evryone on this forum - by reading only, I have learned lots!

Mik
 
mikler1, the retrace is usually profit taking...for example...everyone buys on the news which creates a spike upwards and eventually the people that bought are going to sell to close their positions...so the price will move back down or "retrace" part of the spike and if the news is really good(or bad) the move will then continue further in the direction of the initial spike.

Hope that helps :)
 
Mp,

I understand now. Limit orders for spike trading and market orders for retracements on currenex.

I presume you put your stop just under the pre-release price for retracements.

I am a short-termist too. I havent really got the balls for long term trades yet.
 
OK, I'm back.
I tried to trade without the news and lost my @ss.
My theory of no stop trading did not work as there were trades I could not close for days while loosing all my account.

Back to basics is where I need to be.
I guess part of the reason for me to trade outside of the news announcements was that I could not find a decent platform to trade without getting requotes or no executions unless I opted for a currenex account. At this point, I am affraid to risk $50K for it. So I am in kind of stuck as to how I can trade the news without risking a large amount of money.

Any ideas?
 
OceanView said:
OK, I'm back.
I tried to trade without the news and lost my @ss.
My theory of no stop trading did not work as there were trades I could not close for days while loosing all my account.

Back to basics is where I need to be.
I guess part of the reason for me to trade outside of the news announcements was that I could not find a decent platform to trade without getting requotes or no executions unless I opted for a currenex account. At this point, I am affraid to risk $50K for it. So I am in kind of stuck as to how I can trade the news without risking a large amount of money.

Any ideas?
Click to expand...

Im not even sure you can get filled on currenex either(at a good price). Spike trading is about to be dead, if its not already... because of the damn brokers.

MP seems to have the after spike trades figured out, but Im not sure how he does it because everytime Ive tried it...it never works :rolleyes:
 
nhallmark said:
Im not even sure you can get filled on currenex either(at a good price). Spike trading is about to be dead, if its not already... because of the damn brokers.

MP seems to have the after spike trades figured out, but Im not sure how he does it because everytime Ive tried it...it never works :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

I think what MP is doing is just waiting for the news, if the news is good then he waits for a dip and buys. I think he stays in the trade a bit longer to achieve the maximum profit as possible and then closes the trade. Over time (1-4 hours), the news tends to keep the same general direction.
If the news is bad, then he sells (doing the opposite of above) and rides the trend and closes at a later time.
I am guessing this is what he is doing but maybe he will be along shortly to explain in more detail.
 
Britguy, I don't place any stops - when you trade fundamentals, and the report is strong, the price does move your way.

After-spike trading also works - again, you have to take into consideration the deviation of the report. If a report hardly deviates, then there will be a small spike, and a full retracement, and that's it. There's no telling where the currency will go next - that would be trading blindly.

Take the AUD PPI report yesterday. When the PPI came out higher than expected.. AUD/USD spiked from 0.8793 to 0.8805.. and then fell back (slightly) to 0.8800. I got in at that point.. however, the price remained at about 0.8804-0.8805 for the next 20 minutes. After that, it rose to 0.8810.. that's when I exited.

An hour later.. the price went up to 0.8838! So this was a good 40 pips move, slow.. really easy to get in. Also, take into account it was a sunday here - so no US banks were buyin/selling.. so the aussie $ really had no opposition to it's upward move.

After spike trading works, but you have to be patient. Spike trading - you get in and out in 2-3 seconds. After spike trading.. you have to be slightly more patient, take into account present market conditions and trade accordingly.

Edit : - You got it Ocean ;-) Btw, if you do want to trade 'technicals' just take advantage of the fact that the $ is weak, and the jpy is weak. Look at the pairs I mentioned in an earlier post - they all have a long term upward bias. Look for dips, and buy. Take NZD/USD for example.. when the RBNZ (bank of new zealand) sold a trillion NZD .. because they thought the currency was too high.. it dropped 100-120 pips.. and the sucker started coming back up. Within a few hours it was back to it's original level! Look for dips in aud/jpy, gbp/usd, nzd/usd.. trade accordingly and please keep the news ticker open!
 
Nathan,

I forgot to ask, what platform are you using now?
Are you even trading?
And, how is SoCal Life so far?
 
OceanView said:
Nathan,

I forgot to ask, what platform are you using now?
Are you even trading?
And, how is SoCal Life so far?
Click to expand...

Im on dukascopy...no fill on UK CPI or UK GDP last week.

Ive been trying some technicals again but Im about to quit trading all together
and go get a job so I can make some money:rolleyes:

LA is cool...its damn expensive though.


MP, thats what Im talking about...I got 1 pip on AUD PPI yesterday...I waited for the retrace..I got in and it kind of stayed there for a good 15-30 minutes so I closed...and then it takes off.
 
Yup nathan, happens to me all the time - price takes off soon as I exit :rolleyes: Btw, pound just broke the 2.0600 barrier.. up at 2.0630 now. This sucker's going to be at 2.100 in a month unless pu$$y bernanke does something.
 
Music_Producer said:
Yup nathan, happens to me all the time - price takes off soon as I exit :rolleyes: Btw, pound just broke the 2.0600 barrier.. up at 2.0630 now. This sucker's going to be at 2.100 in a month unless pu$$y bernanke does something.
Click to expand...

Ha ha :p
I doubt he will do anything and actually I hope he doesn't.
My house is still on the market and mortgage rates have creeped up.
 
OceanView said:
Ha ha :p
I doubt he will do anything and actually I hope he doesn't.
My house is still on the market and mortgage rates have creeped up.
Click to expand...

Don't worry.. he won't raise rates.. he'll just 'talk' a bit about how inflation is important blah blah.. but if he raises rates the housing market will be doomed. There's just too much housing woes going on right now, I don't think he will add to it.

Right now gbp/usd looks dangerous to trade - I'm going to wait for the housing reports to enter any trade. Also, look out for australian cpi tomorrow.. and trade aud/usd and aud/jpy accordingly. Remember that their default direction is upward anyway.. so if the cpi comes out higher than expected.. buy.
 
MP, do you think there will be an after spike trade on CAD retail sales in the morning, provided that the data warrants it?

Im trying to figure it out because Ive seen some CAD reports where the move wont continue and some where it will go 60-80 pips past the initial spike...both with a huge deviation.

I'll be ready for AUD tomorrow...should come out good since PPI did and last time CPI followed PPI pretty close.
 
Well, I just finished reading the whole thread, and it appears my fears were well-founded... news trading (a la what MP and others were doing at the beginning) is dead unless you go with a good broker using currenex, no?

If I wanted to get started trading the news, and don't want to open a $50k account with capitalforex, do I have any options?

I looked at the broker reviews at forexbastards, but what do you guys think? Ever looked at tradestation? They are famous in the commodity community, and rightly so. I have an account with xpresstrade, whose FOREX arm is xtfx.com, so they are an option as well, I suppose.

MP, nhallmark, other vets of this thread: if you were starting out today, what broker would you use and how would you have changed your initial approach?

I don't want to sink even more hours into learning FOREX if the only options given to new traders is to lose your money with slippage, outrageous spreads, and outright fraud.
 
Nathan, I'll try and trade the initial spike.. but if i don't get in, i'll try and trade as soon as it stagnates (depending on the report of course) I had a very nice trade tonight, when gbp/usd hit 2.0650 which is a good psychological barrier for the markets.. I shorted it.. and it went down to 2.0635.. which is when I exited. I expected it to come back to 2.0650 but it didn't.

Then the UK report came in pretty horrid (industrial trend orders) - basically because of the strong pound.. brit exports are suffering. So I shorted gbp/usd on that report.. at 2.0612.. had to wait 45 minutes for it to reach 2.0604 and then exited.

Some struggle going on at 2.0600.. obviously, let's see if that is breached.

SJ.. I think if I were to start forex now, I would have a much more open mind - and not merely limited to trading news spikes. As soon as I encountered broker issues (because of autoclick services, just about anybody and everybody started making money.. so brokers started shutting them down).. I thought that was it, it's the end of trading. However, it forces you to think otherwise, of different methods (anything other than technicals - i can't trade technicals at all)

So right now, I'm simply trading on fundamentals.. and if I see some major barriers, I will jump in. I lost 6 pips on a technical trade yesterday so that was it for me - technicals are simply guessing where the chart is going to land up in the next few minutes or hours.

Logicaly, gbp/usd should go down further.. and then shoot back up when the US home sales report comes out (expected to be bad - but you never know)
 
DAMN!!! What a #$%# trade!! Extreme deviation - great for Canadian $.. I got in right away.. filled at 1.0421 (jumped from 1.0440 i think - so i got in after the first 20 pip move) Didn't even wait for a retrace because with this kind of report, there's no retracements baby!

Exited at 1.0388.. and it went all the way to 1.0375 :eek::D:D This is the kind of trade where you can make a killing..
 
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