App Store Projected to Claim 75% of App Download Market in 2011

[mw360]

60% growth vs. 300% growth, Apple better be worried about this. Sure, they are in the drivers seat now, but Android has the momentum of a bulldozer going 100 MPH, whereas the iOS app market has that of a 1986 Yugo going 30 MPH.

That's a bit silly. Android's 300% growth equates to about 300 million dollars. Apple's tiny 60% growth represents way over 1 billion dollars. So who's racing ahead of who?

These are Androids best years IMO, with millions of dumbphone users reaching the end of their contract and defaulting to the cheapest iClone they can get. The evidence is there in the app sales figure. Why are people getting Android devices and not doing anything with them? IMO it's because they didn't purposely select the phone, it just looked pretty in the shop and the sales guy was pushing it. The interesting battle happens when the Market is saturated. When everyone's got a smartphone then it will be tough to win new customers.

Edit: btw this also explains why Androids tablet offerings aren't taking off yet. A tablet isn't something you have to choose on contract expiry day. You're not given it for free as a reward for making phone calls. You have to want a tablet. And if you want one that bad are you going to settle for an obscure copycat?

 

[macnews]

This is the wrong direction. Based on multiple surveys and sales reports, the trend is clear, iOS is loosing market share, in particular in the handset market. Yes, they are raking the cash in hand over fist. Yes, App sales per iOS device are greater than per Android device. Yes, the App Store is less of a 'wild west' relative to Android appstores. However, the fact remains that they are dropping in the install base, and this will eventually (I think) cause them to lose the revenue lead to Google.

You are correct in that Android does seem to be gaining ground in the number of handsets, however, I'm not sure Google will over take Apple for mobile revenue. Two main reasons why:

1. the open nature of google presents many problems from a developer point of view (being a developer this is what I encounter). Device fragmentation and software fragmentation are REAL issues. You add the openness of the app stores and this becomes problematic as to how many places do I need to place my app but more importantly the piracy limits my ability to make revenue on Android not to mention just wanting to develop on Android. Rovio (Angry Birds maker) has specially talked about the issue of being able to earn revenue on Android due to piracy issues so this isn't just me.

2. while Android is gaining ground, if not exceeding right now, iOS in mobile phone sales they are lagging behind when you combine mobile phones with general "mobile" devices like the iPad. I can't tell you how many people have asked about developing an app for their business and want it to run on the iPhone as well as iPad or just want an iPad application. This is not easy on Android and is one reason cited by a recent survey among developers why they are moving away from Android. Again fragmentation is a real issue so more does not equal better.

As a developer, I just want to be paid for my time and efforts. That means I want to make the most on whatever platform. Apple, right now, is the better platform to do so and I don't see this changing in the near future just by Android gaining in market share as it doesn't have much to do with market share but things like the actual software and hardware. Eventually, yes anything is possible, but Android marketplace has many problems getting more apps and if you just look at where revenue comes from (paid apps and in app ads) iOS has way more in both areas. Android may have more devices but with only one major leg of the revenue stream to rely on (in app ads) it will take a very long time before they over take iOS in revenue unless something changes.

 

[BaldiMac]

That's a bit silly. Android's 300% growth equates to about 300 million dollars. Apple's tiny 60% growth represents way over 1 billion dollars. So who's racing ahead of who?

Exactly. It really takes a lot of effort to make these numbers seem anything but dominant for Apple.

Based on multiple surveys and sales reports, the trend is clear, iOS is loosing market share, in particular in the handset market.

Sigh. Once again, the iPhone is not losing market share in the smartphone market. Just as it has been for every quarter since it was released, the iPhone has gained market share year over year in the first quarter of 2011.

http://canalys.com/pr/2011/r2011051.html