Re: This is what will happen....
Originally posted by Joey2000
but one of the reasons big houses like Shake is because its CROSS PLATFORM...
And this is the very reason why Apple will completely phase out the other platforms over time. Maybe not immediately, so as not to upset some existing customers, but they MUST do this. Why? Because as long as the software is cross-platform and has feature parity across all systems, as Shake does now, there is no legit reason why any customer would switch over to OS X to run Shake. Especially if they have an investment already in other platforms. I don't think Apple is interested in selling a few copies of $10,000 software to a few dozen elite VFX houses who can afford it - that would be a huge waste of their time and money. No, they want A) to sell something more "mass-market" (think Final Cut Pro) and B) they want to make people switch over to the Mac. That can't be done with them selling Shake as-is.
Plus, many VFX houses have hard-core "IRIX-heads" who are almost as fanatic about Unix as us Mac folks are about Macintosh
They won't switch if Apple keeps catering to them by keeping the software on their platform, and it's those people who need to be dragged kicking and screaming into the next phase of visual effects software, IMHO. It's time for this kind of software to be moved into the hands of more people, instead of just those who can afford it. Compositing is complex, but there really is no reason for the current insane prices to be charged anymore as long as hardware is not the determining factor.
As long as companies like Weta can keep their existing pipeline intact for a short while, they won't be too upset. Apple can phase out the other platforms over time, and Weta can consider moving the pipeline over to something new, which is ALWAYS an option at VFX houses (they're always checking out the latest and greatest software, hoping that it will improve their pipeline). They'd especially be interested if they can get something that improves things for their artists and costs less, entirely possible if Apple offers the software at a better price, bundled with their hardware and drops the "per-station" network rendering fee and makes it free like Discreet does.
B: iShake....
ok... there will never be a consumer compositing program... ..aww but they have iMovie blah blah...
Sorry, bu compositing is just TOO DAMN HARD for the consumer... it aint going to happen... what would be the point anyway... hey now mom and pop can comp little jonny over a different background.."look, were in Dellawere"
stupid idea.. and apple would know this...
It's too hard because the programs available to do it are too hard. I think there are ways to make compositing much easier, maybe not "iComp" easy, but certainly better than reading a flowchart and connecting/reconnecting tiny little nodes all the time. As much as I admire Shake, it certainly won't win any awards for interface design, that's for sure. I hope Apple can do something that will make the process easier for everyone, including hard-core compositors, without "dumbing down" the whole thing, which I think is absolutely possible.
My predictions? I think they'll phase out the other platforms completely over the next few months, maybe a year for the Linux version, revamp the interface of Shake completely, and drop the price to around the same price as FCP, maybe slightly more ($1000-$1300 US). They'll completely drop Tremor, and have Shake (or whatever it gets renamed to, the name "Shake" kind of sucks IMHO) do the same I/O features with Firewire as standard and upgradeable with hardware like CineWave and such for doing uncompressed SD and HD.