Net win for Apple? Not likely. Not only have they come out looking like bullies in the eyes of many, they are directly responsible for giving Samsung so much free advertising and publicity (for good or bad), that they made the Galaxy series of phones synonymous with Android! And that is not a good thing.
Now here is why I think Apple settled with Google AND this is the only reason: Google's patent for rich notifications and the Notification Center, which has been sitting in the USPTO for over 6 years is probably about to be granted. If Google were inclined, they would be able to sue and show proof positive that Apple willfully and deliberately stole this patent, putting it on every hardware product they make, save for the ATV. This could amount to tens of billions of dollars as well as bans on every single product Apple makes, in particular the iPhone. Apple would prefer to not risk this. This is my guess as to why Apple is doing this.
Lastly, Google didn't overpay for Motorola. You do know they got nearly all that cash back by splitting up the set top box portion and the sale to Lenovo. Not like they spent 3 billion on a headphone company. Wink wink
Samsung would have had exponential growth lawsuit or no lawsuit. Someone had to benefit from Nokia's collapse and Samsung was the only Android manufacturer who had the capability to attack all sectors of the market, aided by their vertical integration.
It's a small net win for Apple since they did win $1 billion and will likely sustain it. Google bought Motorola Mobility for its patent portfolio only. They absolutely took a loss, particularly after court after court ruled against them. Apple wasn't their only target. Microsoft made a killing off license agreements and Google thought that Motorola's portfolio would help them. Courts didn't see it that way. Motorola Mobility's portfolio was mostly FRAND. If Google thought they had an advantage they wouldn't have settled. The bottom line is that both companies concluded they wouldn't benefit from continuing to use each other. But importantly Apple did not drop it's lawsuit against Samsung. The latter and the latter only is what makes this a small net win for Apple. $1 billion is nothing to Samsung. But it is something to FoxConn, LG, Sharp, or other important Apple suppliers who might otherwise get ideas. Apple settled with HTC. They didn't settle with Samsung. That is important.