Apple AR Glasses Reportedly Still at Least Four Years Away From Launch

[Realityck]

Gurman's really hedging his bets now. Hasn't he previously said they would be released last year, this year, next month, next year, two years ago, three years time and now four years away.

He predicts everything and nothing. Occasionally he gets it nearly right.

The tidbits about Apple confirmed it acquired Longmont, Colorado-based Akonia Holographics in Aug 2018 and how it is acting like a patent license focal point could throw off anyone’s guess to when there would be products. That was 5 years ago what news is there really? It’s very seldom discussed online.

 

[s_muxiu]

So the headset and this glasses... they are not the same thing?

 

[neuropsychguy]

The necessary tech for this isn't even on the horizon. This won't be happening this decade.

What necessary tech? Google Glass was released 10 years ago. Google (X) had the foundation of "necessary tech" more than a decade ago. It all depends on what your expectations are. Apple only needs to make them nice HUDs (messages, navigation directions, text viewer). Extra power and features could be built in from there.

 

[Realityck]

I can’t believe anything from this guy. He changes his story so often it makes your head spin. Recall his hedged predictions on the 15” MBA and the M2 MBP. Just changes his story round and round.

How many people have spun around the mixed reality headset rumors? While he has talked up this click bait topic amply, this article just further shows its vagueness of marketing placement akin to some new gotta to have it product category. It’s akin to a treasure hunt for management of sorts.

The company doesn’t see the headset being as immediately transformative as the iPhone. But internal projections give it the potential to eventually be as big as the iPad or the Apple Watch, as the company adds features and reduces the price with subsequent versions.

 

[visualride]

I think that the move to release the goggles first to prove the tech first is a mistake. Sure, they will learn what works but completely turn off anyone interested in all day AR Glasses. The whole concept of AR will never go to the general public as a stay at home device, so till they can make acceptable glasses work, they will just sour everyone on AR with the goggles, just as Google soured everyone on AR Glasses with their lame glasses.

 

[Born Again]

This makes more sense. Failure will be delayed a few years.

 

[klasma]

What necessary tech? Google Glass was released 10 years ago. Google (X) had the foundation of "necessary tech" more than a decade ago.

The quality of the Google Glass display was quite bad, and it was very constrained in what it could display. It also wasn’t 3D, only one eye. It was effectively just a rather limited HUD. Google wasn’t able to make significant headway on that tech, and that’s an important part of why they finally ditched the project.

There is no existing tech for having opaque hi-res 3D pictures overlayed onto transparent glasses, and bright enough to compete with full daylight, not to speak of solving perceptual issues like the vergence-accommodation conflict in such tech. Furthermore, battery tech is at least an order of magnitude away from what would be necessary.

 

[txscott]

I believe the headsets are being introduced now because MSFT's deal to turn HoloLens into a battlefield wearable Integrated Visual Augmentation System (IVAS) including thermal and night vision, IFF, connections to drones, ability to aim weapons etc is failing. The big problem is they make the soldiers physically sick and they are refusing to wear them. The Army promised congress they would seek another provider if MSFT cannot correct the issues quickly.

AAPL wants to say to the Army hey, look at this.

Total initial contract is $22 billion (a number even AAPL would notice) plus the usual overruns, spare parts, and ongoing development.

AR can be done without making the user nauseous. The F-35 helmet puts the HUD inside the visor and also uses cameras mounted on the outside of the aircraft to give the pilot a real time 3-D view around the plane. The problem is they cost $400k each and have to be custom fitted for each pilot. You can't give one of those to every soldier.

It's also possible people who qualify to be fighter pilots just don't get nauseous and no amount of money could make it good enough for some people.

 

[anthogag]

It's all blah blah blah under the bridge from some disgruntled employees at Apple.

 

[RogerWilco]

2010: TV… 2015: Car… 2019: Glasses…

Each product was/is rumored and discussed endlessly, but we never learn about the details of their demise. A cynical person might conclude that all of them were just phantom projects intended to placate investors and maintain the facade of innovation.

 

[Gasu E.]

XR / VR / AR... I dunno...
I'd love VR for X-Plane 12... But the Mac is not ready for that... need more grfx horsepower.
I'd love AR glasses... if they work perfectly with prescription lenses...

So, what are we expecting at WWDC precisely?

I expect a really powerful and flexible device with an excellent software development toolbox, as well as a few apps to demonstrate its potential. The first generation, at least, will be intended for high end professional applications; the WWDC rollout will be aimed at developers of such applications. There will be no focus on a "multiverse". I suspect Apple's roadmap assumes "widespread" adoption in the third generation, at least; that means 5-6 years out, at a minimum. By "widespread", I mean home and office usage, and widespread pro use adoption; I don't think they believe people will be walking around town with their goggles on in any foreseeable timeline.

 

[Gasu E.]

2010: TV… 2015: Car… 2019: Glasses…

Each product was/is rumored and discussed endlessly, but we never learn about the details of their demise. A cynical person might conclude that all of them were just phantom projects intended to placate investors and maintain the facade of innovation.

We know what happened with the TV development; it was refocused and repositioned as a streaming controller. For the "car", it was always ridiculous to believe that Apple was going to get into actual auto manufacturing-- that would have sucked up all of Apple's capital, and then some, as well as 200% of management's attention; I would guess that it was always Apple's attention to focus on developing intelligent automotive subsystems (which never amounted to much as they could never develop adequate partnerships). But, in the case of this current product, there's an actual product rollout date.

 

[KaiFiMacFan]

So the headset and this glasses... they are not the same thing?

Sounds like the headset is the precursor to the glasses. The glasses are the eventual goal.

 

[morningsong]

Imagine giving your boss a 'we're four years away' estimate on a project.
Clean your glasses, you'll need to be looking for the unemployment line.

 

[klasma]

So the headset and this glasses... they are not the same thing?

No. Read the original article: https://archive.is/EqNVo
The upcoming VR headset is project N301, the AR glasses is project N421, which was discontinued.

The MacRumors headline is misleading. The actual quote is “They say that Apple is at least four years away from introducing any such product, if it ever happens.” There are currently no plans to actually build such a product, apparently.

 

[t0rqx]

Four years is optimistic. But not bad if they do manage it.

they could do this in four months. You'd just have to wear a massive suit that has all components inside.

 

[sunapple]

Maybe this will all make more sense after WWDC. It's the software and apps that will make or break any form of Apple glasses/headsets/whatever I believe.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

Four years seems unrealistic. The tech simply is not there with lenses, semis or even other components.

End of the decade is maybe more realistic, but let’s see.

I suspect this mostly comes back to battery. In any kind of device that looks like regular glasses/sunglasses, there is very little space for battery to power 2 screens in the lenses and compute whatever is to show on those lenses.

Battery technologies being what they are imply this would be FAR into the future... almost requiring a breakthrough that makes the battery no longer necessary.

This target does strongly support the push for PPW though. Making the computing work with less and less juice is fundamental to shrinking battery size/weight or perhaps getting to a point where maybe a tiny bit of solar/ambient light can capture enough juice to make these work.

 

[el_ch13fo]

I own a pair of nReal Air AR glasses and they work pretty good. I have to be tethered to a device for power though but work regardless. And this is coming from a small company, can't wait to see what a mega corp can accomplish.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

Don’t bother launching it, please. Google tried and they failed.

Google Launches New $999 Glass AR Headset for Enterprise Customers

Google today announced the launch of a new enterprise-focused Google Glass headset, the Glass Enterprise Edition 2. The Glass Enterprise Edition 2...

www.macrumors.com

There were failed tablets before iPad and failed smart phones before iPhone.

Sometimes Apple must pioneer/trailblaze instead of waiting for others to get something going and then swoop in with their own cut at it.

Being that trailblazer has much greater risk (of failure) but being first to a consumer success of size for something as complicated as this means it will take more than a few days for the Samesungs of the world to roll out their copies.

When anyone is loaded with enormous money, swinging for the fences vs. only going for base hits or maybe doubles is a reasonable play. Yes, they may strike out... or they may hit a home run. But there are no home runs without stepping up to that plate.

 

[DaveWil]

I own a pair of nReal Air AR glasses and they work pretty good. I have to be tethered to a device for power though but work regardless. And this is coming from a small company, can't wait to see what a mega corp can accomplish.

Yea, same. While not true AR they are very nice to use. I love them on my steam deck and when traveling.

 

[Dark_Omen]

It is like a mirage. The closer you get, the further it is away from you. All to keep Timmy happy!

Tim doesn’t care about innovation. Apple has come out with one or two mainstream products in 13 years… a watch and AirPods

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

So the headset and this glasses... they are not the same thing?

As different as desktop Macs vs. Laptops: size, weight, etc.

Headset is rumored as goggles, glasses is envisioned as the same glasses/sunglasses many people already wear.

 

[el_ch13fo]

Yea, same. While not true AR they are very nice to use. I love them on my steam deck and when traveling.

I recently used them connected to an iPad Pro on an international flight. Downloaded a number of Netflix offline movies, when connected to the Airs, the iPad's screen turned off and I could close the cover that I had, paired with AirPod Pro, it was my own personal theater.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

I think that the move to release the goggles first to prove the tech first is a mistake. Sure, they will learn what works but completely turn off anyone interested in all day AR Glasses. The whole concept of AR will never go to the general public as a stay at home device, so till they can make acceptable glasses work, they will just sour everyone on AR with the goggles, just as Google soured everyone on AR Glasses with their lame glasses.

There were big desktop Macs long, LONG before there was a laptop Mac

There were huge brick cell phones (briefcase required) long before there were skinny little, self-contained slabs that fit in our pocket.

Generally, brand new technologies start big and miniaturize. Not too much works the other way.