Firewire on its way up not out.
There is a wealth of information which directly contradicts your notion that Firewire is on the way out. If anything, it seems Firewire is finally emerging as THE MUSIC INTERFACE STANDARD. And since this thread was about the possible Apple Asteroid, i will try to restrict my arguments and refernces to the realm of music tech.
As far as the statement that "in another three years you won't be able to find consumer-targeted, Firewire-based products (except, perhaps, for "old," legacy-style DV cameras). I don't know how long it will be before Apple stops putting Firewire in their Mac (computer) products, but that may also happen within the next five years. ... I suspect that they will represent a dying breed."
I think all you need to do to debunk this theory is look at the products that are being released right now as opposed to those released in the last few years. The ratio of Firewire based interfaces vs. USB in the last few years has increasingly moved toward Firewire and Apple's reluctance to establish USB 2 as a standard on all their computers is undoubtably a sign that they value firewire more highly. Don't forget that it was Apple who despite the cries of the message boards, ditched floppy drives , adopted USB and firewire, and have constantly innovated while many PC manufacturers offered the status quo. For just a snapshot of the emerging new Firewire technologies, these are items with Firewire released in one week at the most recent AES show:
Presonus firestation
Mackie Onyx 400F
Otari ND-20B w/ mLan control software
Tascam FW 1082 Firewire Audio/MIDI interface
tascam FW-1804 firewire audio/midi interface
tascam IF-FW/DM firewire expansion card for DM-24
Lynx Aurora 192 khz w/ optional firewire expansion card
and that was just one week at one trade show. To quote the aptly named MLanman :
"I saw a few new mLAN products from other companies and 3 new mLAN chips from other manufactures at AES... all working and talking to each other!"
One of the most important of these emerging technologies and products(besides Yamaha's emerging mLan ) MAY be Mackie's decision to offer Firewire options for their Onyx series of mixers (including the new 1220, 1620 and 1640) and digital X.bus systems. As one of the most popular choices for small and home studio mixers, Mackie is a company which offers many consumer priced products with 'Pro quality' parts and construction and has a strong following among budget minded home studio owners.
The choices for Firewire audio interfaces include some of the most popular and legendary products in the field including the long running MOTU 828 series which was Firewire from the start. Other notable best sellers and new products include the RME fireface 800, MOTU's 896, 828 mkII and Traveler, Tascam FW1884 DAW controller and audio/midi interface, Digidesign's Digi 002 LE rackmount and desktop, M-Audio's FW1814, Firewire 410, Firewire Solo and Audiophile 2496, TC Electronic's powercore, the Presonus Firepod, edirol's FA101, terratec's Phase 24 and EWS MIc2 systems and Aureon 7.1, Creamware's Z-Link, Hercules 1612, Alesis' Fireport 1394, E-Mu's 1212M system. Almost all of these are new and emerging products whose makers saw the possibilities of firewire and chose to move in that direction because of its future possibilities and the prospects of the field using Firewire as THE BEST POSSIBILITY FOR MUSIC CONNECTIONS, PROTOCOLS AND INTERFACES.
Many music tech heads are finding it difficult to contain their excitement over the incredible possibilities of mLan technology, even those who work for direct competitors to Yamaha. This site is a great place to examine the past, present and future of mLan:
http://www.mlancentral.com/mlan_info/mlan_ppf.php
This site offers a great report on emerging mLan tech at AES:
http://www.01xray.com/home/index.html
The possibility exists that the major music manufacturers may work together to establish a new standard for mLan as they did with MIDI. More info on possible Yamaha/Apple cooperation in this recent link:
http://www.futuremusic.com/news/november2004/mlan.html
As far as head to head speed tests and comparisons ,there are so many examples it seems counterproductive to list them all here, so instead ill offer some links , many reflect test b/w USB 2 and firewire 400 which are very close in speed (480Mb vs 400Mb), the tests show that Firewire is more able and apt to maintain speeds closer to its ideal upper limit(400), and when Firewire800 is considered there really is no comparison:
http://www.barefeats.com/fire34.html (Firewire 800 Kicks Arse!)
http://forum.canopus.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=218793&page=5&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1
https://forums.macrumors.com/archive/index.php/t-17483
http://www.g4techtv.com/freshgear/features/39129/USB_20_Versus_FireWire.html
Take the techtv studies with a grain of salt, i think dblissmn said it very well [partially in ref to TECHTV and the like] : "these hacks then go and print stories about how USB is faster than Firewire, which they back up by testing the latest USB 2 product with inferior closeout Firewire products. None of them have ever heard of Oxford 911 and Oxford 922; 911, which is the Firewire 400 version, blows every USB 2 solution right out of the water, but most people whose job it is to know about these things don't know them."
Philly also laid it out very well in the same forum: "In fact, USB 2.0 was just Intel's "me too" attempt at FireWire-- that's the only reason it exists, to say, "Look, we have a fast comm bus just like Apple's!"
Only it's not "just like Apple's":
-FireWire is peer-to-peer so the devices can take care of themselves. USB requires a computer to control/manage the devices. That's Intel, giving you the razor (USB) so they can sell you the blades (CPUs).
-FireWire can do things like charge your iPod while transferring data to it, and you can usually daisy-chain the devices together without a hub. USB needs a rat's nest of AC adapters and cables and hubs, or the computer will start bitching about insufficient power on the bus for all the connected devices.
-USB 2 may have a higher top speed (480Mbps) than FireWire 400, but tests have borne out time and time again that FireWire can sustain data transfers close to its peak speed, where USB2 data transfers only spike that high occasionally.
-FireWire has different physical connectors for its 400Mbps and 800Mbps buses, so you know at a glance what you're dealing with-- most decent manufacturers of FireWire 800 devices will probably include the adapter in the box so they can be used on older machines. USB uses the same connectors for both versions, so there's a high probability you'll hook up your USB 2.0 peripherals in a 1.x USB port or otherwise screw things up so the USB 2 peripherals step down to USB 1.x speeds."
Firewire 400 competed with USB 2.0 in head to head tests in 2003 (and this is by a notoriously PC centric mag "So we ran tests to determine the best interface for many types of peripherals. We timed external hard drives, printers, scanners, DVD burners, and CD-RW drives over both USB 2.0 and FireWire. The results surprised us.
Though USB 2.0 is rated at a higher throughput speed, FireWire delivered faster performance on external hard drives when connected to a desktop."
from PC MAg :
www.pcmag.com/article2/0,4149,844061,00.asp
To make a long post even longer, let me say that i hope the coming year will show Firewire, Mlan, IEEE 1394, etc. to be the best hope for a seamless system that allows the user to integrate all the parts of his or her home studio (Hardware, CPU, VST, Rewire, external rack effects, etc) into one cohesive whole through a central mixer/control device. To truly take advantage of the technology, manufacturers will have to come together and agree on some standards as they did with MIDI so mnay years ago with great results. I hope Apple takes a leadership role in this endeavor, and i think they will have to in order for the standard to succeed. This potential product could be an important first step, in that it offers a firewire audio interface at a very affordable price that can be simply used to allow the user to take advantage of all the possibilties of integrating Garageband and their existing instruments / hardware. i myself, a long time Cubase user have switched over to Logic because im excited about the possibilities Apple could bring to the table with its purchase of Emagic and a new OS and system designed from the start to handle audio and MIDI with ease and quality. I think Firewire has the best chance to be the interface protocol (i'm not a professional and my grasp of exact terms is not the greatest but i hope you know what i mean) that can best take advantage of all the emerging technologies and possibilities available in music technology. If Asteroid is anything close to the artist's renditions (I hope it will include MIDI), it will fill the exact need I have at the moment (low cost firewire interface). I hope the notion that you will be able to daisy-chain the devices to provide more than 2 simultaneous recording channels is in fact correct or that they will also release a more professionally oriented version with the ability to simulateously record at least four channels ,sync with MIDI and provide basic DAW control. if you made it this far in this massive post, congratulate yourself on being a patient creature.