I already said if the facts change, it will be evident in the numbers. My whole reason for quoting you originally was to tell you the numbers say nothing but positive for Apple right now.
Your prediction for an impact on sales is based on your own opinions and speculation.
Again, when the facts change, I change.
Sure, but by then it will be too late. You're putting the cart before the horse. The numbers reflect performance and speculation, not the other way around. Once they rot (pardon the pun) to the point the numbers do start to reflect the problems, they won't likely be coming back.
That doesn't mean I wouldn't invest right now. Even if it is all downhill from here, it will be another 5 years or so before the general world recognizes the problem. They will continue to make record profits for some time yet. But, once it starts really falling apart - if they don't heed the warnings now - it will continue to fall apart.
I don’t know about that. They’ve hired a lot of folks and put a lot of resources into it. It’s hard to imagine them making that kind of commitment without some sort of end game in mind.
I suppose they could be developing a technology to sell to someone else, but I mean, unless they are developing an electric car, I don't see what the end product is here, for them. Like many other companies, I think there is so much AI-faith going around that they probably figure they can't not be involved in it.
Why wouldn't you wait until the numbers change to change your investment thesis? Every single person who has predicted the demise or even the slowdown of Apple has been straight up wrong.
Oh sure, if I owned Apple stock, I wouldn't be selling it yet. But, I'd also be pointing out these problems in an attempt to protect my investment. By the time the rest of the world recognizes the problem that we 'insiders' are now seeing, as I said before, everything will be on the downslope.
As for everyone else being wrong, I agree. But, they were wrong because they weren't really following Apple closely enough. Their reasons for the expected demise weren't valid. And... I was here on the forums (and other forums) pointing out why they were wrong. I think what we're talking about now is different.
They don't "pump" services as the next great thing. The numbers SHOW it's the next big thing.
You should write to Apple and let them know your insight on consumers being fickle. I'm sure they don't understand this as the greatest consumer products company. Also, Apple's customer are NOT fickle. That's why it's such an amazing company.
The numbers show it has been growing. But, Apple's services are pretty lousy. If it weren't for the hardware driving them, they'd rapidly fail. They are succeeding because they are part of the whole eco-system.
Apple's *old* customers aren't fickle. The new ones totally are. That's why we're so concerned about exchanging a loyal user-base for the flavor-of-the-week types. There are a lot more of them... which has been great for Apple's numbers. But they could quickly disappear too.
And yes, consumers ARE fickle. ... Consumers are very different from techies. Techies are very passionate and brand loyal. Consumers see a new shiny bauble and want it.
Those of us who stuck with Apple through thick and thin are the exception, not the rule. Most of Apple's fans today are newbies brought into the fold by the iPhone.
...
The old Apple wowed us. This Apple, not so much.
Well said. But, I think it goes even further than techies vs iPhone fans. Apple's old customers were creatives, content producers... the movers and shakers of the world. We/they appreciated style and quality, and practical gains in terms of 'it just works' and the very concrete productivity gains.
The new customers are more content consumers. They are more enamored with being in the 'in crowd' and fashion. They don't even realize the advantages of Apple aside from having heard Apple products are good. It isn't concrete for them like it was for us.
I too used to watch every Keynote. I wanted almost every product they made and was often quite impressed with what they announced. I haven't even watched a Keynote for the last few years. They are mostly a waste of time, and they have announced little of any interest to me.
I suppose someone could say that dancing emojis, stupid TV shows, and hip-hop playlists just aren't my thing. But, I'd also point out that none of that kind of stuff is what made Apple the successful company they are today, or are likely to keep their new customer base if times change.
(Also, I'm not against them adding that stuff, or playing with AI cars... *IF* they keep the core solid. The problem is that haven't been doing that, and and have been replacing the core with this trendy stuff.)
