I've been a Mac guy since 2002 and I never had issues finding software but I don't game.
Here's where your theory falls flat on its face:
- Mac didn't suck prior to 2006.
That's a matter of perspective. It's not the "Macs" that "sucked" but rather the lack of commercial software. A lot of software that was abandoned in the mid to late 1990s came back after the Intel transition along with a lot of new software (games via Steam really increased).
- Nearly all developers, including MS, Adobe, Autodesk, etc. already code for ARM. They have iOS Apps which are ARM Apps.
Apparently, you've never actually used any of that "iOS" versions of their software. They are literally TOYS compared to the full desktop versions and this is where Microsoft is cleaning house with their Surface products because they CAN run the full desktop versions quite well whereas something like the iPad Pro can't run jack squat. There is NO MARKET for the iPad (people running iOS want FREE or $1 apps and almost NOTHING ELSE) and software companies don't want to develop real power products for markets that don't want to pay real ('amigo') money for those products. Hence why there is NO INCENTIVE to make a full featured Photoshop for an iPad. They would lose money on it. You can't take a desktop system seriously that doesn't have REAL applications, not toy/junior versions made for on-the-go little elements.
- During the PPC -> Intel transition Apple stressed the ease of transition.
But they were going from something obscure to something mainstream, so it was only a matter of time before things got a LOT BETTER. What exactly would get "better" under ARM other than battery life? I'm still waiting to here this. Remember, that for some time PowerPC promised better than Intel performance (hell even AMD surpassed Intel for a short bit there) but then with such a small market for the product, it pretty much fizzled out. IBM didn't want to spend the billions on R&D for no return/no market. The primary market for ARM is smart phones, not desktops. The primary commercial market for desktop software is Windows, not macOS. MacOS may actually be the best example of "trickle down economics" there is in that Mac software literally started trickling down from Windows when they moved to Intel.
- Rosetta existed for many years and ran PPC stuff very well.
That's because the Intel CPUs were SO much faster than PPC by that point that the performance for PPC Apps wasn't that terrible (unless you tried a game). ARM CPUs aren't fast enough to run an Intel emulator near real speed and as I said before, NO ONE is going to port to ARM for a handful of Mac computers if no one else (i.e. Windows) is using it mainstream. Microsoft may like to play around with ARM, but their major ARM market (i.e. the Windows phone and Surface 1) didn't exactly sell that well which is why all REAL Windows software is for Intel only.
Win10 will run on ARM and even MS is pushing that so developers will be versed in both CPU's.
I have Win10 on ARM. It's called a Windows Phone! I can't run Photoshop on it. In fact, a lack of Apps is the #1 reason the Windows Phones FAILED to sell to consumers. No market. No Apps. So far, I don't see a single area where my theory falls flat on its face. Your responses are jokes.
- It wasn't until after the release of the iPhone (2007) that Mac sales really took off. Halo effect is real.
You're talking about less than a year into Intel. While there is no doubt
some Halo effect, I say it's mostly delayed reaction (i.e. Intel versions of Apps finally appearing in number that run at full speed instead of crippled PPC under emulation). In other words, never buy the 1st gen product. The second generation of Intel Macs was much improved and by then Apps were catching up. Most people buying early iPhones were using Windows as much or more than Macs. Apple was even pushing Safari for Windows at the time to try and court more Windows users into thinking Apple software didn't suck. Sadly, it backfired as iTunes for Windows and Safari were HACK JOBS and it showed. They improved that to some degree over time, but most Windows users still hate using iTunes and Safari was canned long ago.
- I don't think people care what is in their computer as long as it performs well and lasts a while (both on battery and in years)
I think most CASUAL (and fanatical) users don't care (and I already said that in my previous post). I think most users that run REAL software DO care if they have a good library to choose from and anything that hurts that is going to be really unpopular. Apple has been letting the Mac go to hell for several years now (especially the desktop and pro models) and many of us are on the fence as it is because of that. I use OS X because I like the security better first and foremost (malware is a tiny tiny fraction of what it is in Windows) and I used to prefer the interface as well, but Windows has largely caught up for ease-of-use and even reliability (and always had the lead in gaming), but the malware combined with Microsoft spying on everything you do is a real turn off. Otherwise, I probably would have already switched by now given Apple's poor updates of the Mac Mini and ZERO updates of the Mac Pro in recent years.
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So it begins ...
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If Microsoft is going to make Windows run on ARM then nothing changes for you.
Running Windows on ARM is one thing. Having actual applications and games available for "Windows on ARM" is quite another. Windows SE on ARM. FAILURE. No software. Windows Phone on ARM (I even own one, but Apps aren't that important to me on a phone). FAILURE due to lack of Windows application for it. It's relatively easy to port an OS to ARM. It's not so easy to get 3rd party developers to make software for it. If Windows mainstream goes to ARM and ditches Intel, I agree it would be good for the Mac to move to ARM. But as long as Windows on ARM is a JOKE, so it is a joke for the Mac to switch. The Mac needs software and it's too small a market to pull most developers in on its own. If it's easy to port, however and there's profit to be made, you will continue to see Mac software and that's the key difference.
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Someone might've already said it, but I'm calling BS to the whole "macOS doesn't have as large of a software ecosystem as windows" thing. I've always found really nice apps for literally anything I can think of without issue. Whether it's system utility, video/audio production, social/chat/email, development, or design, there's always mountains of options to choose from. The same can't be said when I've tried finding Windows alternatives to essential apps that I have on my Mac.
No point arguing about gaming though because Mac isn't even remotely close to Windows on that front.
And the REASON you can find that software is it's relatively simple to port most basic apps to the INTEL Mac particularly if you use common toolboxes for both. Change Intel and you're back to PPC no-man's land by comparison. Yes, there was software for the PPC Mac. But it wasn't even close to what's available now for the Intel Mac. A lot of younger people today were not around for the 1990s and early 2000 years and have no idea how sparse it was by comparison. For several years, the ONLY real browser for the Mac was Internet Explorer (and a then failing Netscape). Firefox didn't yet exist and Safari didn't either. Apple dependent on Microsoft for a browser. Think about it.