Apple Employee in Culver City, California Has Coronavirus

[szw-mapple fan]

There's plenty of them, like..leaders from Germany/France/The Netherlands...all of them said it will be more than the above mentioned percentage.

60% to 70% of the German population will be infected by the coronavirus, Merkel says
'De komende tijd zal een groot deel van de bevolking met het virus besmet raken' Dutch
Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked'

There are far more cases in the states than what is reported, there were no tests available, wait until numbers spike in a few days/in a week or so.
Plenty of people have no symptoms at all!

Edit: There's this quote in the above (The Guardian) link, food for thought...

Thanks for the sources. This is speculation though from politicians, and there is no concrete evidence from academia that this actually happen or has happened in countries that were infected early on. The Guardian article's main source is quoted as saying

"At the end of January, he warned in a paper in the Lancet that outbreaks were likely to be “growing exponentially” in cities in China, lagging just one to two weeks behind Wuhan."

While I don't doubt the severity of the outbreak, his models are probably based on data coming from the initial days of the intense outbreak in China (this article is more than a month old) when the healthcare system was still struggling very much to understand and treat new patients. Actual data has revealed that his predictions have not materialized, and most provinces outside Hubei is dropping to single digits with a few in double digits. New cases have also dropped to double digits even as more testing kits are made available. The same is true in Korea in the past week as new cases drop significantly. If asymptomatic carriers are so common, then the number of diagnosed (symptomatic) patients would have been on a sharp rise right about now in Asia. So, my original point stands. If managed well, the number of infected can be effectively limited.

As for the virus evolving to become less lethal, but it won't happen the early on in the outbreak. Let's all hope this will be the case.

 

[Plutonius]

Obesity seems to be a factor.

Obesity is usually a factor in most health related problems.

A greater factor in covid-19 mortality seems to be if the lungs had sustained any previous damage from smoking or air quality (i.e. if you smoked or lived in highly polluted areas).
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If we were able to mass test people we could be way more effective is stop spreading the virus.

The virus isn't going to be stopped at this point. The only chance at stopping it was when it was first discovered in China.

Right now, everyone is attempting to only control its spread so the hospitals don't get buried.

 

[ipponrg]

Right now, everyone is attempting to only control its spread so the hospitals don't get buried.

I get the feeling that people are not thinking that and more that they won’t ever catch or give to loved ones if they stay inside.

 

[Woyzeck]

Almost all the deaths have been older people with existing conditions (i.e. if you are < 70 without medical issues, the death rate is very low).

Also, I surmise that the number of cases is much higher then what is reported. Some people show no symptoms or very minor symptoms (i.e. they are not identified). This would make the death rate even much lower than the 1.7% you posted.

Our neighbouring country Italy has a death rate of 14% and rising, and their health system is better than the US. Still their capacity gets saturated with so many critical cases. Doctors practise triage since last week, deciding who'll get one of the few medical devices needed to save patients live. The others are left for dying.

It's not the flu - it's a nightmare. Be afraid. One month from now the situation in the US will be the same.

 

[jntdroid]

Our neighbouring country Italy has a death rate of 14% and rising, and their health system is better than the US. Still their capacity gets saturated with so many critical cases. Doctors practise triage since last week, deciding who'll get one of the few medical devices needed to save patients live. The others are left for dying.

It's not the flu - it's a nightmare. Be afraid. One month from now the situation in the US will be the same.

According to Johns Hopkins tracker, the death rate in Italy is now around 7% and dropping. Also, Italy waited an inordinate amount of time to take any true measures to slow it down. The U.S. hasn't been perfect, but they've taken some pretty drastic measures in a pretty short period of time.

Edit: great info as to why Italy's death rate has been so high - but it basically boils down to they're one of the oldest countries in the world: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opin...oronavirus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html

I also have to question your claim that Italy has a better healthcare system than the U.S. The U.S. health system isn't in great shape when it comes to cost, but still has some of the best healthcare in the world and some of the best systems in place to manage this scenario, assuming people heed the quarantine advice of their government to keep the system from being completely overwhelmed....

 

[Plutonius]

and their health system is better than the US.

How is Italy's healthcare system better than the US besides the economic issues ?

This is a pretty good article that compares the two systems.

Italy's healthcare seems to be better managed but Italy doesn't have near the medical capacity per size of population that the US has.

The US may still be overwhelmed but Italy doesn't even compare in medical capacity (As an example, the US has three times the number of critical care beds per size of population).

 

[maerz001]

It should fade away during the summer but I expect it will be back in the winter cold / flu season.

I'm wondering how much time will pass before it's ignored like the flu ?

As its already in 160 countries spreading there is little hope of summer.

 

[Precursor]

It makes me lose hope when I read completely ignorant people treating this as common flu or take this situation so lightly. Common flue has 0.02% fatality rate and has 2 days incubation period while this new corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) has as high as 7% fatality and 14 days incubation period. World's already gone into recession. If you ignore this virus do us a favor and make a gathering.
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There are 4146 active cases. 4134 are mild and 12 are serious or critical.

That is because the symptoms are mild in the beginning, then patient gets better, than develops pneumonia and gasps for air the next day. Worldwide there are now 87,088 closed cases 7,177 of which resulted in death (8%). There are currently 96,649 active cases worldwide (and rising rapidly) with 6,165 in serious/critical condition (6%) and rest is mild (which can change at any time).
Another danger is the virus mutating to affect younger population harder like Spanish Flu did (which killed 100 million people worldwide) in 1918-1920 and it had only 1-3% fatality rate!

 

[jntdroid]

It makes me lose hope when I read completely ignorant people treating this as common flu or take this situation so lightly. Common flue has 0.02% fatality rate and has 2 days incubation period while this new corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) has as high as 7% fatality and 14 days incubation period. World's already gone into recession. If you ignore this virus do us a favor and make a gathering.
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That is because the symptoms are mild in the beginning, then patient gets better, than develops pneumonia and gasps for air the next day. Worldwide there are now 87,088 closed cases 7,177 of which resulted in death (8%). There are currently 96,649 active cases worldwide (and rising rapidly) with 6,165 in serious/critical condition (6%) and rest is mild (which can change at any time).
Another danger is the virus mutating to affect younger population harder like Spanish Flu did (which killed 100 million people worldwide) in 1918-1920 and it had only 1-3% fatality rate!

There are currently 185,067 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide with 7,330 confirmed deaths - a 4% mortality rate, not 8%. Those numbers are skewed due to the fact that there are likely thousands of mild cases that have not been tested or reported, and therefore are not officially counted in the confirmed cases number; so the mortality is likely lower (numerous doctors have communicated that likelihood). I guarantee you a year from now we'll look back on this and the mortality rate will not be 4%.

"That is because the symptoms are mild in the beginning, then patient gets better, than develops pneumonia and gasps for air the next day."

That's completely untrue for most cases - again, every doctor you see online, on the news, etc. states the fact that most people that get this will have relatively mild symptoms. The scenario you're talking about is the outlier, not the norm; a serious outlier for sure, but still an outlier. Acting like that is the norm without proper disclaimers is just spreading FUD.

I agree completely with you that dismissing this virus is a mistake. But spreading fear and panic and numbers that are not accurate is also a mistake.

COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[Hirakata]

That is because the symptoms are mild in the beginning, then patient gets better, than develops pneumonia and gasps for air the next day. Worldwide there are now 87,088 closed cases 7,177 of which resulted in death (8%). There are currently 96,649 active cases worldwide (and rising rapidly) with 6,165 in serious/critical condition (6%) and rest is mild (which can change at any time).
Another danger is the virus mutating to affect younger population harder like Spanish Flu did (which killed 100 million people worldwide) in 1918-1920 and it had only 1-3% fatality rate!

190,000 cases worldwide. 7500 deaths. 3.95%, and this will go down.

 

[recoil80]

According to Johns Hopkins tracker, the death rate in Italy is now around 7% and dropping. Also, Italy waited an inordinate amount of time to take any true measures to slow it down. The U.S. hasn't been perfect, but they've taken some pretty drastic measures in a pretty short period of time.

We were unlucky to be the first European country hit by the virus. The US and other EU had the ability to learn from our mistakes and are taking all the necessary measures.
You'll experience less deaths, at least that's what I hope.
Another problem in northern Italy is pollution, that in the past was at least partially responsible for many deaths.
Maybe our lungs are weakened by the bad air we breathe and the virus is more lethal for that reason, I read something about it but I guess more studies are needed.

 

[Tech198]

Most people will get coronavirus, just a matter of time, I understand the importance of reporting this but eventually there will be lots of them, reporting on each of them will be too much by then.

What else is in the news?

I wonder if this virus can bring down a company from the inside.

 

[unplugme71]

I could not have said it any better mate. Look, this is serious but so is the Flu. However, the real danger Covid 19 is potentially creating, is a Global Depression. Gov'ts around the world are shutting down their economies. Businesses need to make money to stay in business and workers need to make money to pay their bills or they could find themselves out on the street and their vehicles repossessed. Because of the fear and hysteria people are buying 6-8 month supply of toilet paper, buying up all the bread, water, tinned and dry food. It's so bad at Walmart that Supercenters in my area are now closing at 11pm and reopening at 6am because they "can't" stock the selves with all the "Panic Buying".

This is the issue. There’s just too much panic.

 

[Precursor]

190,000 cases worldwide. 7500 deaths. 3.95%, and this will go down.

No, you are comparing the number of deaths to total cases (old & new). Problem is that the deaths are from old cases, new cases are to result in death or recovery within 2 weeks and new cases are rising every day.

From the 94,790 of "Closed cases" number of deaths is 8,999 making fatality rate 9.49%
It will go up if people don't follow the instructions to stay indoors and keep spreading the disease. Because no country's health system is enough to handle so many patients, doctors in Italy are already pulling the plug on old patients cos they need the machines for younger patients.

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There are currently 185,067 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide with 7,330 confirmed deaths - a 4% mortality rate, not 8%. Those numbers are skewed due to the fact that there are likely thousands of mild cases that have not been tested or reported, and therefore are not officially counted in the confirmed cases number; so the mortality is likely lower (numerous doctors have communicated that likelihood). I guarantee you a year from now we'll look back on this and the mortality rate will not be 4%.

"That is because the symptoms are mild in the beginning, then patient gets better, than develops pneumonia and gasps for air the next day."

That's completely untrue for most cases - again, every doctor you see online, on the news, etc. states the fact that most people that get this will have relatively mild symptoms. The scenario you're talking about is the outlier, not the norm; a serious outlier for sure, but still an outlier. Acting like that is the norm without proper disclaimers is just spreading FUD.

I agree completely with you that dismissing this virus is a mistake. But spreading fear and panic and numbers that are not accurate is also a mistake.

COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Again, you can not make ratio of deaths to currently active cases. As an example you can have 100 deaths out of 10,000 confirmed cases, but death ratio is actually much higher if 5,000 of these were added yesterday.

I am not trying to spread fear and panic with some made up numbers. I am trying to inform people about the seriousness of the issue using actual numbers.

 

[jntdroid]

Again, you can not make ratio of deaths to currently active cases. As an example you can have 100 deaths out of 10,000 confirmed cases, but death ratio is actually much higher if 5,000 of these were added yesterday.

"but death ratio is actually much higher if 5,000 of these were added yesterday."

Or it might not be. By using the number of closed cases as your base, you're completely ignoring the thousands of people that either have not been tested due to mild symptoms, or have been tested and only have mild symptoms - i.e. they're not going to die from it. Using a ratio of "Deaths to closed cases" overstates the death rate when the statistical "norm" is living/surviving.

That said, I've changed my thinking on this a bit in the last couple of days, because in all honesty both methods are somewhat faulty because we're early in the stages, worldwide anyway, and it's a constantly moving/changing target. Until we get to a point where new cases are minimal, or at least on a significant decline, it's going to be hard pinpoint a truly precise death rate.

Sorry if I sounded disrespectful towards you about the spreading of panic - I'm just seeing so much of it right now that I'm probably a bit over-sensitive to anything that seems off at first glance.

 

[Precursor]

"but death ratio is actually much higher if 5,000 of these were added yesterday."

Or it might not be. By using the number of closed cases as your base, you're completely ignoring the thousands of people that either have not been tested due to mild symptoms, or have been tested and only have mild symptoms - i.e. they're not going to die from it. Using a ratio of "Deaths to closed cases" overstates the death rate when the statistical "norm" is living/surviving.

That said, I've changed my thinking on this a bit in the last couple of days, because in all honesty both methods are somewhat faulty because we're early in the stages, worldwide anyway, and it's a constantly moving/changing target. Until we get to a point where new cases are minimal, or at least on a significant decline, it's going to be hard pinpoint a truly precise death rate.

Sorry if I sounded disrespectful towards you about the spreading of panic - I'm just seeing so much of it right now that I'm probably a bit over-sensitive to anything that seems off at first glance.

I am hoping you are right, I was only trying to show the numbers and make people understand that it is very serious. In Italy alone there were 5,322 new cases and 427 deaths today. People have to stay indoors to lower the infection rates to ease the load on healthcare systems, that is the best we can all do for the moment.