We'll see. I bought a bit more at $161 two days ago. Thinking positive. And if it does crash to $138, I'll get to buy even more shares with my dividends next week. I personally think they'll crank up dividends to $0.72/share (~15% increase).
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Apple Expected to Report Best-Ever Second Quarter Today With Anticipated Clues About iPhone X Sales
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Apple got some serious problems. Supply chain leaks and supply chain target misses. Lacking innovation and failed product range strategy. This is all due to the fact, that Tim Cook doesn't primarily overlook the supply chain as the did in the Jobs era and that Tim Cook is at helm and makes wrong strategic decisions:
1. Only one huge iPhone X instead of also offering a small version, hence the huge entry price
2. Failed Siri development and a hopelessly overpriced product, that loses to Amazons echo
3. Fighting windmills with obsessive development of Apple Maps / street view, that loses to Google maps
4. Modular Mac Pro fail, abandonment of Mac mini, refusal to do something useful with the trash can mac design.
5. Total destruction of former peripherals development department: No displays, no wifi-mesh, no thunderbolt 3 stuff
6. Apple TV, was around before Stream-Netflix and Prime Video ... not even 3rd most important platform right now
7. only 12, 13 and 15 inch notebooks, this is Apple just being LAZY
8. way to slow update cycles, i don't expect a show all the time but specs upgrades every f. year on every f. product
9. Apple Stores - now home of boredom. Not even every product on display, forget events and software demonstrations/courses
10. Still sticking on spinning hard drives. Seriously? You call Yourself the leading tech company? Embarrassing
And this is just what comes to my mind in 2 minutes.
It would be best, if Tim would return to his former job as CFO and monitor the supply chain. He was great at that. As CEO, many could do better, I would suggest Will Ferrell or Jonah Hill...
1. Only one huge iPhone X instead of also offering a small version, hence the huge entry price
2. Failed Siri development and a hopelessly overpriced product, that loses to Amazons echo
3. Fighting windmills with obsessive development of Apple Maps / street view, that loses to Google maps
4. Modular Mac Pro fail, abandonment of Mac mini, refusal to do something useful with the trash can mac design.
5. Total destruction of former peripherals development department: No displays, no wifi-mesh, no thunderbolt 3 stuff
6. Apple TV, was around before Stream-Netflix and Prime Video ... not even 3rd most important platform right now
7. only 12, 13 and 15 inch notebooks, this is Apple just being LAZY
8. way to slow update cycles, i don't expect a show all the time but specs upgrades every f. year on every f. product
9. Apple Stores - now home of boredom. Not even every product on display, forget events and software demonstrations/courses
10. Still sticking on spinning hard drives. Seriously? You call Yourself the leading tech company? Embarrassing
And this is just what comes to my mind in 2 minutes.
It would be best, if Tim would return to his former job as CFO and monitor the supply chain. He was great at that. As CEO, many could do better, I would suggest Will Ferrell or Jonah Hill...
I did read your post. My above comment still stands.
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That would not be expected. For the last 15+ years there has always been a Q1 to Q2 decline.
2015 was the only true supercycle in Apple's history. It was due to the iPhone 6 being launched in late 2014.
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Here you go to support your claim:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-iphone-sales-since-3rd-quarter-2007/
Wish List for coming year:
1) iPhone SE2 with headphone jack and home button (same as SE but with better specs)
2) Mac Mini redesign to allow more user replaceable guts (keeps headphone jack and a few legacy ports)
3) Mac Pro redesign and jacked specs (keeps headphone jack and a few legacy ports)
4) FIX SIRI!!!
1) iPhone SE2 with headphone jack and home button (same as SE but with better specs)
2) Mac Mini redesign to allow more user replaceable guts (keeps headphone jack and a few legacy ports)
3) Mac Pro redesign and jacked specs (keeps headphone jack and a few legacy ports)
4) FIX SIRI!!!
Best use for whom?
for investors and the "public". yes, a big divident payout of stagnating cash is the best thing for the economy as it will inject a large amount of cash back into the economy.
for Apple itself? no. the more cash they can hoard for whatever reasons they're hoarding is in their own best interest.
You don't need to read headlines to know $1000 is too expensive for a marginal upgrade. The upgrades to the X vs the 8+ aren't worth the $. That is from a former X owner.
It's about how steep that decline is.
- Q1'2015 to Q2'2015 = $74.6 billion to $58 billion (-22%)
- Q1'2018 to Q2'2018 = $88.3 billion to $60 billion* (-32%)
Instead, we're now expected to see revenues from Apple basically revert back to 2015 levels. Short term, Apple is raking in profits. Long term, there's a big question mark.
It seems you didn’t read my post. My post was about ASP, whereas your comment is somehow defensive about Apple’s guidance.
No idea why you felt the need to defend Apple’s guidance number, but apparently you did.
Informed analysis is difficult to come by around here. If you have comments relevant to my post about ASP, they would be welcome.
I'm not defending anything. Calm down. The numbers and the Q1 to Q2 declines are what they are, as they have been for many years.
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Whose expectations were those? I think there was an abundance of caution. The X was also, and is, competing with iPhone 8 sales and the public's initial reluctance about FaceID being a suitable and robust phone unlocking/security technology.
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I am only just now realizing how much Macrumors is a pump-and-dump scheme.
Not a peep about the biggest financial story in the history of Apple?
https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/the-biggest-apple-rumour-in-10-years.2117064/
Not a peep about the biggest financial story in the history of Apple?
https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/the-biggest-apple-rumour-in-10-years.2117064/
A one-time extra dividend of few bucks a share would not cost $150B. More like $20B. But to your question, the best use of capital is always going to be reinvestment in expanding the company's business. But Apple has never been able to reinvest their profits at the rate they earn them, which is why the cash trove grew so large in the first place.
iPhone X under-performed based on everyone's expectations.
From Samsung, SK Hynix, to TSMC's own CEO who lowered their revenue guidance due to soft demand for a "very high end smartphone." Those suppliers were not idiots.
Apple already increased the price tag on iPhone 8 by $50 last year.
The explanations you offered should be up to Tim Cook to explain. But the end result is the same. We're expecting a steep decline in revenues for a once in a decade iPhone refresh.
It might be. Apple hasn't been short of cash for many years now. Presumably they buy what they want to buy because they like the price and they see an opportunity. Their investment decisions are not based on where in the world they were keeping the cash prior to this repatriation. And they've never bought another company for cash at anywhere near $150B.
But now that the cash has to come back to the U.S. they can actually do a big dividend without first taking a huge U.S. tax hit. They couldn't do that before.
I'm hoping for a big dividend. But not expecting it at all. The conservative play will to leave the cash on the books "just in case". You can never defeat every "what if" scenario. So I suspect most of the cash will just continue to accumulate. While I trust Apple's management, I'd say it is equally likely in the long run that they will waste the cash than that a really good "what if" opportunity will arise where having the cash makes a difference.
Calm down, I never claimed Q1 to Q2 declines weren’t normal. As I said: Apple obviously expected this. Which is why they literally guided a 30% decline in revenue for Q2 over Q1.
Q1 to Q2 declines in ASP are also normal. What’s your forecast? The article presents the Q1 figure of $796 without the historical context that we can expect the typical Q1 to Q2 drop off.
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All I hear is blah blah blah blah blah.
Yeah, "serious" problem, record profits and 1.3B install base with a growing profitability in services... Sounds "bad".
Maybe they should lose money on most things or be one trick poneys like Google... Or even launch rockets... with cars.. wouldn't that be *cool* /s
My mistake, I slipped a decimal, it would be about $15 billion. But I think institutional investors would rather see a buyback than a taxable, one-time dividend.
It does make you wonder what they’ll do with all that cash; R&D spending is already very high. Good acquisition candidate are few and far between.
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We'll see huh bud. You know who buys all those products, well Samsung and all the other phone makers.
True. But the articles are read and so they will continue to be written. That is how media works. And Apple is a huge company. Nearly trillion dollar market cap. So it is important in that regards. And since most of the revenue comes from iPhone, in some ways it is fair to say that Apple's value is more precarious than many large companies.
Check again what TSMC really reported vs what you have been told by analysts who didn't really understand or listen to the TSMC report. TSMC is doing just fine. Propagandists just twisted their words to make it seem like there was some big trouble there, but it simply is not true. TSMC performed according to their own guidance numbers very well.
Too often, propaganda like this is rubber stamped as the truth - but what is the real origin of the story that TSMC gave bad news about Apple - because they really did not.